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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> May add later
Upper Medium
Brewers -148
Lannan is a finesse pitcher highly dependent on rhythm and feel. He lacks the arm strength or movement to overcome any bouts of lack of control. Based on his first two starts, Lannan has shown evidence that he has yet to find that control, as he has become very hittable. Last year he walked a batter every three innings. So far he has walked 6 in 8 plus innings. Lannan clearly has not found his zone, which is not something you want against a potent Brewers lineup that has had past success against him. Being backed by a really bad bullpen that was overworked in their last series is also not ideal for him. The Nats may be forced into a spot where they may have to leave him out to dry.
Gallardo has also not looked sharp. However, being a power pitcher who has a high walk rate leaves me little concern about backing a pitcher out of rhythm. So does backing someone as talented as Gallardo. The Nats are experiencing an uptick at the plate. But without Zimmerman and a talented cast around him, it should be short lived. Material advantages in the starting pitcher category, lineup, bullpen, and timing favoring the road favorite.
<o> </o>
Braves -133
The Braves have become a secularly undervalued team. The Rockies have been consistently overvalued, which is a bit surprising since I found value on them with their Over win totals. The Rockies are much less potent away from home. Hammel is a finesse pitcher whose success is contingent on the opponents lineup. He struggles against left handed loaded lineups who possess patience at the plate. Facing the Braves should do him no favors. Not surprised he struggled against this team last year, facing them twice and getting roughed up both times. Lowe’s sinkerball should offset the power the Rockies bring at the plate. His experience should be advantageous against the Rockies youth and aggressiveness. He owned this team last year, and pitched well against them in 08. The Braves have a nice edge in the bullpen.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
A’s -158
The market sucked out a lot of value in this one, but still some left. The Orioles are in shambles. They are injured, struggling at the plate, and have a horrific bullpen. The A’s are clicking on all cylinders which bodes well for a team that is very streaky. Braden is the real deal and is pitching like it out of the gates. He has also had his way with the Orioles in the past. Being a flyball pitcher, he should benefit from pitching at home and against a lineup without much pop. Millwood may be just what the Orioles needed. His surface stats look fine out of the gate, but allowing 3 home runs in his last start and having a ground ball rate materially lower than his norm should be concerning. His velocity is down this year, and is resorting to the slider more. Small warning signs that may not be factored in to the market price. Backed by a horrible bullpen and a struggling lineup leaves him little margin for error.
Upper Medium
Brewers -148
Lannan is a finesse pitcher highly dependent on rhythm and feel. He lacks the arm strength or movement to overcome any bouts of lack of control. Based on his first two starts, Lannan has shown evidence that he has yet to find that control, as he has become very hittable. Last year he walked a batter every three innings. So far he has walked 6 in 8 plus innings. Lannan clearly has not found his zone, which is not something you want against a potent Brewers lineup that has had past success against him. Being backed by a really bad bullpen that was overworked in their last series is also not ideal for him. The Nats may be forced into a spot where they may have to leave him out to dry.
Gallardo has also not looked sharp. However, being a power pitcher who has a high walk rate leaves me little concern about backing a pitcher out of rhythm. So does backing someone as talented as Gallardo. The Nats are experiencing an uptick at the plate. But without Zimmerman and a talented cast around him, it should be short lived. Material advantages in the starting pitcher category, lineup, bullpen, and timing favoring the road favorite.
<o> </o>
Braves -133
The Braves have become a secularly undervalued team. The Rockies have been consistently overvalued, which is a bit surprising since I found value on them with their Over win totals. The Rockies are much less potent away from home. Hammel is a finesse pitcher whose success is contingent on the opponents lineup. He struggles against left handed loaded lineups who possess patience at the plate. Facing the Braves should do him no favors. Not surprised he struggled against this team last year, facing them twice and getting roughed up both times. Lowe’s sinkerball should offset the power the Rockies bring at the plate. His experience should be advantageous against the Rockies youth and aggressiveness. He owned this team last year, and pitched well against them in 08. The Braves have a nice edge in the bullpen.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
A’s -158
The market sucked out a lot of value in this one, but still some left. The Orioles are in shambles. They are injured, struggling at the plate, and have a horrific bullpen. The A’s are clicking on all cylinders which bodes well for a team that is very streaky. Braden is the real deal and is pitching like it out of the gates. He has also had his way with the Orioles in the past. Being a flyball pitcher, he should benefit from pitching at home and against a lineup without much pop. Millwood may be just what the Orioles needed. His surface stats look fine out of the gate, but allowing 3 home runs in his last start and having a ground ball rate materially lower than his norm should be concerning. His velocity is down this year, and is resorting to the slider more. Small warning signs that may not be factored in to the market price. Backed by a horrible bullpen and a struggling lineup leaves him little margin for error.