MLB 4/17 Plays

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Large
Marlins +106
The Marlins line has dropped nearly 15%, and I still think they warrant a large play. That just goes to show how off I deemed oddsmakers opening asking price. Oddsmakers were anticipating a huge demand in Phillies backers, as they have now won 8 of their first 10 games. But putting things in perspective, their first 3 series were against the Pirates, Nationals, and Astros, while Halliday has pitched in 30percent of those games. The Phillies have some bullpen problems, and the injury to Rollins is a material loss, as he is replaced by dead weight. Enter Moyer, who looked horrible in his first start. This is not something that you can say a pitcher can bounce back from, because there is no benchmark of comparison to how 47 year old pitchers perform. With the amount of innings the Phillies bullpen has been forced into in recent games, Moyer may have to stay in this one longer than what’s ideal. Nollasco’s performances are predominately predicated on whether or not he is on that particular day. When on, he can dominate any lineup in baseball. This makes him a good bet when facing potent lineups (and a good go-against on the inverse). He has put forth many impressive outings against this lineup in the past, and has dominated many of the Phillies hitters. This is one of the few series in which the Marlins bullpen, on a relative basis, does not materially decrease their intrinsic worth.
<o:p> </o:p>
Upper Medium
Braves +110
Right back on the Braves. This team is the real deal. They have a solid lineup, great bullpen, and depth in their starting rotation. Kawakami is a part of this depth in their rotation. He is a crafty veteran who is better matched against the more aggressive lineups in the league like the Rockies. Last year, his productivity against lineups that were facing him for the first time was solid. The Rockies have yet to see him, and his splitter takes time to adjust to. Kawakami gets much worse the third time around the lineup. The Braves depth in their bullpen gives them ideal leverage to hedge against this deficiency. Jimenez is solid, but is now trading at a premium in the market place. There is not much you can say to knock this guy, expect all his pluses are fully reflected in his asking price and that he has appeared much more comfortable pitching at home throughout his career. The edge in the latter innings goes to the Braves with their bullpen advantage. The Rockies are much more dangerous at home.
<o:p> </o:p>
Padres -130
Predominately a go-against Benson. There has been nothing that has occurred in the last three years that makes me think he can contend with professional bats. He did not pitch at all in 07 as he was recovering from injury. In 08, he was pitching in AAA until the Phillies cut bait for being overmatched by minor league bats. His 09 major league stint did not last long, since he allowed nearly a run an inning. He is not 36 and topping out at 87 mph. He is also backed by a sub par bullpen. I have no problem backing Corrieia at the right price. He matches up well against an aggressive Dbacks lineup, and has had past success against them. He pitched against 2 starts ago. Last year, he had two “sandwich spots” like this against the Dbacks, and the second starts resulted in 17 innings and 2 runs. This is indication that he benefits more from the knowledge gained than do the Dbacks. The Padres bullpen edge surpasses the Dbacks lineup edge. The Padres have the edge in the later stages of the game, which more than likely forces Benson to have to out pitch Corriea. I doubt that.
 

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Philly has yet to play the Pirates. They have seen the Nats twice. Pirates upcoming
 
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Excellent writeups...I'm on Fla myself..

My big play is over Tor/LA..I know you don't play totals but It's my largest wager of the season. I'm writing it up now.

GL
 

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"This is one of the few series in which the Marlins bullpen, on a relative basis, does not materially decrease their intrinsic worth." - Why's that?
 

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"This is one of the few series in which the Marlins bullpen, on a relative basis, does not materially decrease their intrinsic worth." - Why's that?

By relative value, I mean comparing their value vs. their opponents bullpens value. I have a bearish valuation on the Phillies bullpen. The lack depth, have only one southpaw (who is average at best), and Madson and Baez don't look sharp.

Compared to prior series, against the Reds, Mets, and Dodgers, I was really giving their intrinsic value a haircut when it came to the bullpen portion of the valuation.
 

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By relative value, I mean comparing their value vs. their opponents bullpens value. I have a bearish valuation on the Phillies bullpen. The lack depth, have only one southpaw (who is average at best), and Madson and Baez don't look sharp.

Compared to prior series, against the Reds, Mets, and Dodgers, I was really giving their intrinsic value a haircut when it came to the bullpen portion of the valuation.
Thanks.

Really like Braves, I've usually found value in Kawakami with the old makers differences when he has been pitching a pitchers park. You hit it on the head Jimenez and Rookies home/road disparity.
 

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Interesting match-up in the TB/Bos game. What's your view and line on that game?

I currently have the Redsox valued at -124 (Rays +124), but subject to change on how last nights game finishes out and lineup information. Bucholtz has looked really sharp against the Rays in the past, but have my doubts on the sustainability of this success. He struggles against left handed hitters, and a lot of the success can be attributed to a combined 4 for 22 against Pena and Crawford (their two best left handed hitters). Shields has struggled against Boston throughout his career, especially in Fenway, where he has allowed nearly a run an inning. His value goes down materially outside of his home park. If the Rays are forced to use a lot of pen pitchers last nights wrap up, Shields may be vulnerable if forced to go 3 or 4 times around the Red Sox lineup.
 

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