MLB 4/18 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2010

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Braves -138
The Braves are on the cheap right now. The lineup is out of favor after being no-hit less than 24 hours ago. Jurjens is out of favor after allowing eight runs to a Padres team and whispers that there may be something wrong with him after reports that his velocity is down. But until I see further evidence, I am going to chalk this up to getting a solid pitcher at a bargain price. Jurjens has had his way with the Rockies lineup throughout his career. Past success against Hawpe and Stewart and his propensity of being extra hard on right handed bats should make it difficult for this Rockies lineup to get anything going. It shouldn’t get any easier when Jurjens is replaced by the Braves bullpen. I am not sold on Smith. He has a mediocre arsenal of pitches, a mediocre strikeout rate and high walk rate. He is the polar opposite in styles when compared to Jimenez. The Rockies bullpen is well rested, but below average. The Braves should have the pitching advantage throughout.
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Padres -108
Going right back on the Padres. This game consists of 2 young pitchers the market is vulnerable to mispricing. LeBlanc should regress from last years numbers, but should once again put forth a decent year. He is a pitch to contact flyball pitcher that does not through very hard. The Dbacks young lineup matches up better against power pitchers. His flyball tendencies should be helped out by Petco. He quietly ended last year as one of the most dominant pitchers, allowing 2 or less runs in five of his last six games. The Padres bullpen is as good as it gets. Kennedy should get better from here on out and has a lot of upside. But he has been a very streaky pitcher in the past and is vulnerable to prolong slumps. Kenendy is getting hit hard right now. His line drive rate is at a level during the first two games that would have put him at the worst in the league last year. Unlike his counterpart, he does not have the safety net of an elite bullpen to bail him out.

XPike21X · Apr 18, 2010

love the braves. greg smiths daytime splits are ugly.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2010

XPike21X said:
love the braves. greg smiths daytime splits are ugly.

True, and it more than likely can be attributed to more than just randomness. He only throws the fastball 55% of the time. He relies on the looping curve and a lot of movement on his slider and changeup to be effective. The lower air density of day games makes it hard to get that movement.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 18, 2010

Thanks for yesterday. Was wondering what was your closing line for that TB/Bos game after TB used a lot of their bullpen?

Hope Hawkins throws like shit again.

Also what's your line on the Det/Sea game?

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Thanks for yesterday. Was wondering what was your closing line for that TB/Bos game after TB used a lot of their bullpen?

Hope Hawkins throws like shit again.

Also what's your line on the Det/Sea game?

-121/121

I don't think Hawkins will be pitching the 8th anytime soon.

-104/104, but will wait for the lineups to come out to readjust and enter a position.

GordonGekko · Apr 18, 2010

Buffett,

I took a small/medium position on KC this morning. I know Hochevar hasn't been brilliant in years past, but this is more of a position against Pavano and what the Royals batters have previously accomplished against him.

Also took a medium position on the La Angels at +120..

Are the Brewers resting all starters? Market really driving Washington here. If they are maybe its a good thing...
Atlanta for medium position.

FairWarning · Apr 18, 2010

White Sox resting players today

Pierre LF
Beckham 2B
Kotsay RF
Konerko 1B
Pierzynski C
Rios CF
Teahen DH
Vizquel 3B
Ramirez SS
Floyd P

Thinking that the over may be the way to go in Atlanta, as Jurrgins has been pretty hittable too.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2010

Gordon Gekko said:
Buffett,

I took a small/medium position on KC this morning. I know Hochevar hasn't been brilliant in years past, but this is more of a position against Pavano and what the Royals batters have previously accomplished against him.

Also took a medium position on the La Angels at +120..

Are the Brewers resting all starters? Market really driving Washington here. If they are maybe its a good thing...
Atlanta for medium position.

Will probably have a small postion on the Royals as well. I have an open order on the angels, but doubt it will get matched. Best of luck.

I am on the Brewers. Will put up my write up after this post. Hart and Escobar are the only two starters not in. Best of luck today GG.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2010

FairWarning said:
White Sox resting players today

Pierre LF
Beckham 2B
Kotsay RF
Konerko 1B
Pierzynski C
Rios CF
Teahen DH
Vizquel 3B
Ramirez SS
Floyd P

Thinking that the over may be the way to go in Atlanta, as Jurrgins has been pretty hittable too.

Indians are resting their fair share as well. The moment the lineup information came out, the White Sox line dropped 7 cents. I also increased their value by 4 cents with the lineup information.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2010

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Upper medium
Brewers +110
How often do you see a team open at -120 and close at +110? More times that not, I agree with the market and not the oddsmakers, but not in this one. Wrong team favored. I think the market may be getting ahead of themselves with this Natonals hot streak. Keeping things in perspective, they have a below average lineup, below average bullpen and below average starting rotation. How long can they keep this going? Marquis is known for being streak, and couldn’t make it past the 5<sup>th</sup> in either of his first two starts. Until he proves otherwise, I am going to assume Marquis does not have his best stuff at the moment. Backed by a sub par bullpen and facing a solid lineup, and the Brewers should put up runs in this game. Davis has also not looked sharp, but a good sign that he is in control of things is that he has been able to keep his walk total down. He also has a favorable match up against a young lineup. bullpen edge to the Brewers.

FairWarning · Apr 18, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Indians are resting their fair share as well. The moment the lineup information came out, the White Sox line dropped 7 cents. I also increased their value by 4 cents with the lineup information.

Thanks. So hard to say over with these two teams.

BigCat · Apr 18, 2010

BG BOL today Braves look good

Stabler12 · Apr 18, 2010

Sorry I missed today's card, and congrats on the first two winners.

GotEM! · Apr 18, 2010

awesome comeback by padres and a nice 3-0 sweep today...thanks!

BPAPER · Apr 18, 2010

I threw the Royals in for a little 4 team parlay! Thanks BG!!!

Stabler12 · Apr 18, 2010

Great job, BG, really bummed I could not get on board.

Rip007 · Apr 19, 2010

killing it !!!!!

MLB 4/18 Plays

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