MLB 4/19 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 19, 2010

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Large
Angels -171
The market is starting to bid up the line on the Angels, making it a rare occurrence for them to bid against the Tigers. Although I have my doubts that Pienero will put forth a season near last years, I still think he is an improved pitcher compared to a couple of years back. He has also pitched well out of the gates against two of the better lineups in the league. Last year he became an extreme groundball pitcher, which improved his effectiveness. Monitoring his GB/FB ratio is a good barometer in deciphering regression. Although a limited sample size, he currently leads the AL in that ratio, which indicates he has held on to what Duncan taught him. The Tigers lineup is overrated. Willis has yet to get blown up, but he has not pitched well. He has allowed nearly two baserunners an inning, but has been bailed out by an abnormally high LOB%. The Angels are the ideal team to make this ratio come back to earth and take advantage of Willis’s propensity to put runners on base. The Tigers bullpen is subpar, which should allow the Angels to have scoring opportunities throughout.
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Upper Medium
Blue Jays -114
Finally the Blue Jays have become undervalued. Their lineup came back to earth, and Morrow has looked horrible. But I like his upside and the lack of power and patience at the play the Royals posses sets up an ideal matchup for him to get things back on track. The Blue Jays bullpen is deep, giving them leverage to pull the plug on him early. The Royals just got finished playing two straight series against divisional rivals. They might not be up for this game. Bannister is on an uptick, but that is not a good time to back him, as he has shown the propensity to regress after two solid starts in the past. The Blue Jays do not have a potent lineup, but do have dangerous bats from the left side, which is ideal against Bannsiter. Bannister’s BABIP is down this year while his LD rate is up. A sign of a lot of luck going his way. The Royals bullpen is below average, giving the Blue Jays the advantage in a late inning, close game if applicable.

Stabler12 · Apr 19, 2010

Love the rationale, thanks and GL, BG.

IrishTim · Apr 19, 2010

My model had LA as the strongest play as well. Nothing better than when BG agrees.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 19, 2010

Spell my boy Pineiro's name right. =O)

Agree with both. Great write-ups.

I thought you were going to be on the Mets.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 19, 2010

IrishTim said:
My model had LA as the strongest play as well. Nothing better than when BG agrees.

That never hurts.

HandyCapper · Apr 19, 2010

buffettgambler · Apr 19, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Spell my boy Pineiro's name right. =O)

Agree with both. Great write-ups.

I thought you were going to be on the Mets.

I am. Medium play.

buffettgambler · Apr 19, 2010

Tomorrow's Braves line has some upside. Bought some at -150. Currently -157. Don't see it going any lower.

Best of luck Munson and Tim.

chevycola · Apr 19, 2010

I like the Angels too, but not at -171. I went with the run line -1.5 and got +115. I don't see the Tigers competing in this one. I can't believe they got 9 walks yesterday, and not ONE of them crossed the plate. If not for Cabrera's one swing, they would have been swept. They cannot move runners right now, and are terrible with RISP. They left 12 guys on base yesterday (9 of them the above mentioned gifts in the form of walks). Willis' hasn't been tagged yet because both of his starts have come against Kansas City. Any team with a potent offense would have plastered him. That said he still has an ERA nearing 5.00.

Sheesh, I might even go back and put more $$$ on the Angels now..........

I like your writeup on Tor/KC. I've seen 6 Royals games this season (I'm a Tigers season ticket holder....so I've seen 3 of them in person). You nailed it about their bullpen. Terrible. Soria fine on the backend, the trouble for KC is getting a lead to hand over to him.

Enjoy your writeups!

Rip007 · Apr 19, 2010

Thanks

Rip007 · Apr 19, 2010

BG How do you read the Nationals this early...seems to me there is still value there.....

buffettgambler · Apr 19, 2010

Rip007 said:
BG How do you read the Nationals this early...seems to me there is still value there.....

Not really. I think they were undervalued the first couple of series. Oddsmakers seem to be fairly valuing them on the open in recent games and the market is bidding them up and putting a premium on their price tag.

The Rockies are also an overvalued team. So the Nats opened undervalued today and for tomorrows games, but the market was quick to put them at a more appropriate price. The fact that the Rockies are not closing overvalued is a sign the Nats now have a premium (as if their closing price on Sunday against the Brewers was not evidence enough).

buffettgambler · Apr 19, 2010

On a side note, the Braves are now trading at -173 at Pinny for tomorrows game.

Rip007 · Apr 19, 2010

thanks

TheHungerForMore · Apr 20, 2010

This guy sucks. Lets fade him.

BPAPER · Apr 20, 2010

not a bad last 3 days!!! LOL Thanks for the ride BG!!

coachesplays · Apr 20, 2010

Very nice night tonight. Even saw that small chatter on the Mets and made me look at that one harder. Thanks

Stabler12 · Apr 20, 2010

Thanks BG.

Rip007 · Apr 20, 2010

Nice Job !!!!!

GordonGekko · Apr 20, 2010

Great job..right on the past few days.

MLB 4/19 Plays

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