<table width="500" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="50%" align="left">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">0</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">1</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">0</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="20%" align="right">-2.00 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="50%" align="left">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">17</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">18</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">0</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="20%" align="right">+5.68 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="50%" align="left">Season To Date (Since March 2010)</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">17</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">18</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">0</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="20%" align="right">+5.68 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
PITTSBURGH +1.17 over Milwaukee http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Brewers come in having lost two of three to Washington, Chicago and St. Louis over its last three series or nine games. They’re now 5-7 and were completely shut down on Sunday by Livan Hernandez. In fact, if you throw out the 10 runs they scored in the first inning yesterday, they’ve scored just once over the other 17 frames and even if you include that, they’ve scored in just two innings over its last 18. On the other side of that is the Brewers pitching that has allowed five or more runs in 11 of 12 games this season and that makes winning difficult and it’s also mentally deflating when your pitchers keep giving up runs. Dave Bush has been around for quite some time and doesn’t need much of an introduction. He won’t dazzle anyone and he usually won’t implode either but he’ll usually allow three, four or five runs in six frames, as his career 4.68 ERA in 155 starts will attest to. That’s who he is and the Brewers pen has been of no help. Incidentally, both Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun’s career numbers at PNC Park are way below their numbers everywhere else. Charlie Morton goes for the 7-5 Pirates. Morton is off to a horrible start but he’s really not that bad at all. Two starts does not make a season and it’s worth noting he opened the year pitching in the very hitter-friendly Chase Field and then his second start came against the hot-hitting Giants in San Fran. In that game he went six innings and threw just 79 pitches but three jacks did him in for six runs and that’s how the Giants scored all of their runs. The bottom line is that the Brewers are not playing well and the Pirates are winning the close one’s. The game is in Pittsburgh and Dave Bush is not and never will be an appealing favorite on the road. Play: Pittsburgh +1.17 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Kansas City +1.29 over TORONTO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Dana Eveland is another one of those pitchers that cannot be trusted laying juice. Yeah, he’s had two good starts but they came against the White Sox and Orioles and every pitcher in the league is making those two teams look foolish. Fact is, he’s walked five, struck out just six and has a unsustainable 92% strand rate thus far. Those are strong indicators that a reckoning is coming very soon and this is very likely the day. Kansas City ranks among the league leaders in most offensive categories, with an AL-leading .309 team BA. The season-opening offensive outburst, in which KC has averaged more than five runs per game, has featured an aggressive, contact-oriented plate approach which has KC batters with the AL's fewest strikeouts. The Jays have been living a charmed life and unless they start hitting with average they’re going to lose a lot of ball games. Toronto leads all AL teams in HR, but ranks near the bottom in team batting average and leads all teams in batters' strikeouts by a wide margin. Kyle Davies has a history of pitching his best in the season’s first two months but this is more about taking back a price against a very ordinary pitcher and an offense that ypu can keep off the board if you keep the ball in the yard. Definite overlay. Play: Kansas City +1.29 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>WASHINGTON +1.29 over Colorado http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Nationals are quietly above .500 and that’s after playing six games already against the Phillies. After beating the Rockies last night, the Nats have now won four of its last five games and over that stretch they’re batting a league best .321. Jorge De La Rosa is a guy that can look terrific at times but he’s always had control problems and that could cause a lot of problems for him here. You see, the Nationals, as it turns out, are among the most patient line-ups in the game and have already drawn 61 walks and 31 over its last six games. Greg Olsen didn’t look bad at all in his season debut versus a powerhouse Philadelphia lineup last week, and now faces a lefty-oriented Colorado lineup. Olsen has had substantial success vs. LHB, limiting them to a .704 OPS, while surrendering an .833 OPS vs. RHB. While the Colorado regular lineup is indeed LH-dominated, the bench players here are largely RHB and it’s worth noting that the Rocks are already 0-2 vs lefties on the road. In no way should the Rockies be favored by this much over the very undervalued Nationals. Play: Washington +1.29 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>ATLANTA/Philadelphia over 8½ -1.10 http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>This total is low because Tommy Hanson is off to a good start but c’mon now, he’s seen the Cubbies and he’s seen the Padres in San Diego. Now he’s about to face a juggernaut offense and Hanson is going to have to be a lot better than his numbers suggest. First off, he’s walked seven batters while stranding an unsustainable 91% of base-runners. That can’t last and it won’t against this offense. Then there’s Kyle Kendrick and he could surrender nine runs on his own. Each of Kendrick's first two starts, both vs. Washington, has been disastrous. Kendrick's 36% line-drive rate says it all here and what it says is that his fate has been largely deserved. Kendrick has allowed 12 hits and three walks in just 5.2 innings for an off the charts ERA of 18.75 and WHIP of 2.65. In other words he’s pitching with the bases loaded every inning. This total seems awfully low so I checked the wind conditions and the reports are a very mild wind blowing from right to left at about 3MPH. This could really turn into a slugfest. Play: Philadelphia/Atlanta over 8½ -1.10 (Risking 2.2 units).
