MLB 4/20 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 20, 2010

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Pirates +112
The Pirates aren’t getting any respect here. They have won three straight games and won five of six at home, yet are underdogs against an underachieving Brewers team and a pitcher who has historically struggled on the road. Despite this seasons numbers from both starters, I think the Pirates have a nice pitching edge here. Morton has been smacked around pretty hard so far this season. However, his strikeout rate is up, and walk rate way down. His BABIP is abnormally high. This indicates he is pitching better than his surface numbers would indicate. I am not sold on Bush rebounding yet. He has been a major disappointment since joining the team and has never pitched well on the road. Being vulnerable to the long ball bodes well for a Pirates lineup not built to manufacture runs.
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Braves -156
I have bet more money on the Braves than any other team so far this year. I am not sure what facet of their team the market continues to undervalue, but I will continue to back them until the market values them at their true worth. The Phillies are getting a bit too much respect here. The injury to Rollins is a much bigger deal than people realize. Their bullpen is suspect, and Kendrick is a liability on the mound right now. His past success against the Braves lacks sustainability. Firstly, he does not have his A game right now. Secondly, he struggles a lot more against left handed hitters than right handed hitters. The most dangerous hitters in the Braves lineup comes from the left side. Hanson is the real deal. He is once again coming out of the gates showcasing that. Bullpen edge goes to the Braves.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 20, 2010

Not a lot of value on games today. It might be the tightest of the season yet.

Hanson in his rookie season had his struggles against lefty's. Which Phillies have a lot of. I know you obvious know this especially since last season we discuss this when we was being overpriced. I don't do totals much but the Over looks like a ideal play at 8.5.

Stabler12 · Apr 20, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG.

Hucklebuck · Apr 20, 2010

This needs to be on page 1. Keep up the good work.

CastleRockBuff · Apr 20, 2010

Hey, just curious, what's your overall record so far this season?

TheHungerForMore · Apr 20, 2010

CastleRockBuff said:
Hey, just curious, what's your overall record so far this season?

4 wins/23 losses

Rip007 · Apr 20, 2010

BG...surprised that you don't do totals....I see that there is a lot of action over at pinny...close to game time...Is it too unpredictable in your opinion..... too many factors..umps,weather,etc.......thanks

Stabler12 · Apr 20, 2010

Was wondering if you put any stock into the tongue-lashing the Red Sox took from their GM today. Pretty cheap price to pay at home vs. a slumping team with a motivated club?

buffettgambler · Apr 20, 2010

Rip007 said:
BG...surprised that you don't do totals....I see that there is a lot of action over at pinny...close to game time...Is it too unpredictable in your opinion..... too many factors..umps,weather,etc.......thanks

I didn't see that I had the edge over the market that would compensate me for the additional time needed to handicap totals.

buffettgambler · Apr 20, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Was wondering if you put any stock into the tongue-lashing the Red Sox took from their GM today. Pretty cheap price to pay at home vs. a slumping team with a motivated club?

Hey munson,
Not really. Don't see that warranting increasing their value. I see them fairly valued at the current price, and would not be a buyer of either team.
Best of luck today.

Stabler12 · Apr 20, 2010

Thanks BG, I know I look at streaks and motivation more than you do. Always appreciate your opinions.

Stabler12 · Apr 21, 2010

Well, Boston didn't get there exactly the way I thought they would, and neither did Atlanta.@)

Collier · Apr 21, 2010

I have been following BG for years. His knowledge of the game and capping is second to few. He doesn't post records nor does he need to...i track just for my own edification..by my count he is 24-15 on the season or 61.5%. This sometimes accounts for his response to posters that he is on a certain side whereas he might not have listed as a "play" and sometimes doesn't. Close enough for me. Thanks for all you do BG...

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