Yesterday Toronto scored a run in the 1st Inning against Kansas at this very same stadium...So why do I like this play??? That run was the 1st time that Toronto has scored in a 1st Inning in the past 11 games....I like my chances when a team goes without a run in the 1st in 10 / 11 games.....Kansas has not been better in the 1st inning going 8 games in a row without a score in the 1st inning....So my first rule of strggling offenses applies to this scenerio....This is also a situational bet as Kansas is playing the last game of a 9 game road trip...This team is tired and I'm sure ready to get back home...Next let's look at the field they are playing on....Rogers Center in Toronto has the 7th best Hitter's park in this early season, but the sample this year is too small...Last year Roger's Center was ranked 23rd as a hitter's park and I'll take my chances with a sample size of 1 year vs 1 month....So rule 3 applies.....Next we look at probably the most important factor which is pitching....This is where the bet gets interesting...We get Greinke and Marcum on the mound....Well Greinke was quite possibly the most underrated dominating pitcher last year with 16 wins ( impressive considering his team) with an astounding 2.16 ERA over 33 games started....This year he has been off to a slow start going 0-2 with a 3.57 ERA.....The talent is there with Greinke but he has been known to have issues being mentally prepared for games and when he is on he is on, but unfortunately the reverse can be true as well.....Still if the value is right to me it's a no brainer and he will not give up runs in the 1st inning 10 times out of 11 if not less......Let's look at Shaun Marcum.....He has stuggled so far this year in his 3 starts and like Grienke has given up runs in 1 of his 3 starts this year ( In the 1st Inning) but I like my chances here and am hoping both Marcum and Grienke's struggles this year give some good value to the bet....Under normal circumstances I could see this bet for No Score being around -180 to -190 today I see it being around -140....If that is the case ( and I still don't have a number from my book so any help would be appreciated) I will make this a 4 unit play....You have to remember that Marcum was a dominating pitcher who had been plagued with injuries including Tommy John surgery that kept him out last year....He is finally healthy and I am hoping that his 3 roughed up starts this year has allowed him to get the kinks out of his game....He is another pitcher that when he is on his game he is unhittable......Thus Rule 4 applies although with recent pitching struggles not as solid as I would like...
Sorry for such a long winded post on this...I promise to be more concise in the future but feel there are alot of angles to cover in this game.....The most important Rule 5 is that this is the only game this morning so even if it doesn't fit my system completely I have to play it otherwise work would be realllllly boring :lol:
If anyone has the odds for the 1st Inning No Score I would greatly appreciate it.....Otherwise I am going to put this bet in at where I think the number will be and wait to add a new post if my number is off
1.) No Score 1st Inning Kan / Tor
Risking 4 units to win 2.8 units ( -140 )
2.) Kan / Tor UNDER 7.5 -115
Risking 3 units to win 2.61 units
3.) Kan / Tor UNDER 4 1st 5 innings -115
Risking 3 units to win 2.61
JAT
Sorry for such a long winded post on this...I promise to be more concise in the future but feel there are alot of angles to cover in this game.....The most important Rule 5 is that this is the only game this morning so even if it doesn't fit my system completely I have to play it otherwise work would be realllllly boring :lol:
If anyone has the odds for the 1st Inning No Score I would greatly appreciate it.....Otherwise I am going to put this bet in at where I think the number will be and wait to add a new post if my number is off
1.) No Score 1st Inning Kan / Tor
Risking 4 units to win 2.8 units ( -140 )
2.) Kan / Tor UNDER 7.5 -115
Risking 3 units to win 2.61 units
3.) Kan / Tor UNDER 4 1st 5 innings -115
Risking 3 units to win 2.61
JAT
