MLB 4/21 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 21, 2010

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Braves +134
Going right back on the Braves. I don’t know why the market continues to neglect their true value, but their above average lineup, their stellar bullpen, and being complimented by a solid pitcher in Hudson, makes me think they have no business being this large of an underdog at home. The market over the last 15 minutes has been aggressive in bidding down their price, which is a comforting sign for my model. Hudson has looked sharp so far this season. He has been hard to hit, especially for left handed hitters, which is a comforting sign when going up against the Phillies and him being known to struggle more against left handed bats in the past. Past success against Utley is a magnified perk now that he is one of the hottest hitters in the league. Hudson has not proven capable of going deep into games thus far, but that is not a bad thing when backed by such a talented bullpen. There is nothing bad to say about Halladay. But there is nothing good to say about him that has not been fully reflected in the market price and then some. Everyone wants to back him no matter the cost, which forced an inflated overnight line to get even that much more inflated (we are witnessing a correction with the recent line movement). In case you haven’t noticed yet, yesterday was a reminder that the Phillies bullpen is injured and below average. Although Halladay is the epitome of an innings eating pitcher, now being in the NL, his innings per start should decline due to the pinch hitter late in close games. Nice bullpen edge to the Braves.
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Padres -118
There is rarely a game that goes by in which I do not have a bet against the Giants. The larger bets against them have been when Wellemeyer has been on the mound, as the market seems to carry over the Giants solid pitching in some capacity despite him being on the mound. When he is on the mound you have a bad pitcher backed by a bad lineup. There is nothing to get excited about there. The Giants lineup is also struggling, scoring just three runs in the last three games. The last thing you want with Wellemeyer on the mound is little margin for error. The Giants make a good match up for the Padres, as this team is built to win the close low scoring games. They have showed this to be the case in their first two games against the Giants. Garland has had past success against the Giants. He has been hard to hit so far this year, and his high walk total should decline from here on out. Pitching edge goes to the Padres throughout.
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Royals +108
The market is moving this line in the wrong direction. Wrong team favored. The market really likes Marcum. They were pricing him for perfection even before his first start. He has gotten worse with each start, and his off speed pitches are providing much less value this year compared to years past. This is a sign that more potential regression is in the cards for him. This is a good time to back Geinke. He faced three hard matchups for him out of the gates, and facing an anemic lineup should be a confidence booster for him. I see no increase in his LD or FB rate and his BABIP is up a bit, which is a sign of some potential bad luck. The Blue Jays lineup is anemic. Adding insult to injury is them being without Encarnarcion, and having McDonald and Molina in for this game for defensive purposes. Nice spot for Grienke to get things back on track.

MemphisMonroe · Apr 21, 2010

Only problem is most of the money is on the royals and the line got cheaper on the royals and more expensive on toronto despite no huge percentage move(money pushed on toronto).

Stabler12 · Apr 21, 2010

Concerned about going against Halladay, since he is the one pitcher on that staff who may not need any relief, but love seeing you on a couple of dogs. Thanks for the early post so I can get KC in and GL, BG.

GordonGekko · Apr 21, 2010

Good luck Buffett

I'm with ya on KC.

Medium play: Over Rockies again..Washington hits at home. Riding Boston -190. Inflated price tag but Rangers stole 53 bases yesterday and still couldn't get the W.
Chicago White Sox -110

Good luck to you..

chevycola · Apr 21, 2010

Love the KC bet.

One to take a look at: Take the Angels and Jered Weaver over the anemic Tigers. The only reason the Tigers were in the game at all last night was because of Angels bullpen walking so many guys. They walked the bases loaded, and then Palmer got behind in the count against Miguel Cabrera who belted one off the right center wall clearing the bases. That made it 6-5, artificially closer than this game really was. Even with those gift walks, the Tigers really weren't in this game. If you pull Cabrera out of this lineup, they wouldn't have the one win they've got on this murderous west coast trip they are on. I fully expect the Tigers to be completely shut down today by Weaver. If the Angels score 2 runs, that should be enough to win the game.

I'm going to go with your KC and Braves games, and if they win, I'll be putting 1/2 the winnings on the Angels. Or better yet, might take any winnings from your early KC play, and put 1/2 on a parlay with the Braves and Angels. If the Braves come in, I'll hedge off on the Tigers to insure a no-loss scenario.

GL BG! Again, really enjoy your writeups.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 21, 2010

Memphis Monroe said:
Only problem is most of the money is on the royals and the line got cheaper on the royals and more expensive on toronto despite no huge percentage move(money pushed on toronto).

Non sense.