MLB 4/22 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 22, 2010

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Braves -136
Going right back on the Braves. The Phillies are a secularly overvalued team in which the market is undermines the importance of the injuries to Rollins and key bullpen pitchers. Yesterday they were able to mask these issues by only needing two runs to score and having Halladay avoid the bullpen. With Moyer on the mound today, I don’t think it will be as easy. Moyer doesn’t look so hot out of the gates. Opponents are 9 for 15 against him with runners on, and he is not doing a good job avoiding base runners. Moyer takes advantage of young aggressive lineups. The Braves have a veteran, patient lineup that knows Moyer well. They put up solid numbers against Moyer for four straight years. Don’t think that success should stop now as Moyer is not getting any younger. There are players spread all around the lineup with past success against him. The scoring opportunities should not stop when the Braves bullpen enters the game. Having a right handed sinkerball pitcher going up against a left handed dominated lineup is not the ideal situation. However, Lowe is one sinkerball pitcher that has had really good success against the Phillies lineup, including dominating starts against them last year. He has shown a propensity to get better the more looks he gets against them. Vitorino, Wether, Ibanez and Howard have all been owned by him. Things should not get any easier when the Braves pen enters the game.
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Mets -156
When Santana becomes an undervalued favorite, you know the Cubs are an overvalued team. The market is claiming the Cubs are in a slump. I see it differently. They are an average team playing slightly below average baseball. Prior to last nights game, the Cubs went four straight games putting up three or less runs. It wont get any easier for them having to face Santana. Although I think Santana regresses this year, he is coming off his best outing of the season where he struck out nine, walked just one, and did not allow a run. His stuff seems to be working right now, and past success against the Cubs should parlay into a good start. The Cubs will also be without Ramirez. It’s hard to say if Gorzelanny has a carry over effect from taking a line drive off of his pitching arm. Although he has looked decent so far this season, the sustainability is lacking. He is also not a candidate to go deep into games even when on. This does not bode well for the Cubs chances, as their bullpen is a liability. The Cubs lack any advantage in this game to overcome the nice sized pitching disparity.

Stabler12 · Apr 22, 2010

I play golf on Thursdays and Sundays so thanks again for the early writeups, and GL, BG. I think we came within a great stop by Utley w/ the bases loaded of sweeping the card yesterday, and here's to a 2-0 Buffett today!:toast:

Rip007 · Apr 22, 2010

Thanks

NyMets609 · Apr 22, 2010

love your card today.

buffettgambler · Apr 22, 2010

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Indians +190
The market is not acknowledging the material effect of the value over replacement Mauer has over Buerta, and the benefit of having Branyon in lineups against right handed pitchers. I am definitely not sold on Talbot, but the fact he showed that he can pitch a complete game, and has two nice starts under his belt makes it a little more comforting to back him. You might as well back an underwhelming pitcher while he is on an uptick. Baker is solid and has had past success against the Indians. But nothing good about him is not being ignored by the market price. The Twins look pricy here. Really pricey.

Stabler12 · Apr 22, 2010

Twins have been really solid in their new park, but I value your judgement and love betting dogs too much to pass. Thanks and GL, BG.

buffettgambler · Apr 22, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Twins have been really solid in their new park, but I value your judgement and love betting dogs too much to pass. Thanks and GL, BG.

Agree. It was really hard to do a write-up on this game. I have a bearish valuation on Talbot and a bullish one on Baker. But even with such, my numbers are simply not near what the market price is suggesting, and as we both know, price is everything.
Best of luck today Munson.

Stabler12 · Apr 22, 2010

Those new parks sometimes have a mystical effect on teams, even though we both know it's probably just great pitching in this case. Baker concerns me too, but as tight as the Twins normally play, I agree the price is very high. Just had my +188 picked up at Matchbook, thanks again, BG, I hope to be making money while on the golf course this afternoon, and I doubt I'll get it with my clubs.@)

TheHungerForMore · Apr 22, 2010

Hey, BG what was your line for the Indians. Just wondering cause i would like to know how much cents it was off for you to go large. Thanks for the unmatched able insight.

buffettgambler · Apr 22, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Hey, BG what was your line for the Indians. Just wondering cause i would like to know how much cents it was off for you to go large. Thanks for the unmatched able insight.

Indians +138. I have the utmost respect for the baseball market and their ability to price games before the close. So when their is a large disparity between our pricings, I sit back and realize that both me and the market are mispricing some facet of the game, and the true line lies somewhere between our valuations (and hopefully closer to mine). But I am confident the market has the Twins inflated and are not appreciating the disparity in worth Mauer has over his replacement.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 22, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Indians +138. I have the utmost respect for the baseball market and their ability to price games before the close. So when their is a large disparity between our pricings, I sit back and realize that both me and the market are mispricing some facet of the game, and the true line lies somewhere between our valuations (and hopefully closer to mine). But I am confident the market has the Twins inflated and are not appreciating the disparity in worth Mauer has over his replacement.

Thanks. Lets hope you get rewarded for that rare large mispriced line. Woke up, late. =O(

IrishTim · Apr 22, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Indians +138. I have the utmost respect for the baseball market and their ability to price games before the close. So when their is a large disparity between our pricings, I sit back and realize that both me and the market are mispricing some facet of the game, and the true line lies somewhere between our valuations (and hopefully closer to mine). But I am confident the market has the Twins inflated and are not appreciating the disparity in worth Mauer has over his replacement.

Buffett, what do you set as your "MinEdge" for baseball (in terms of % or cents)?

buffettgambler · Apr 22, 2010

IrishTim said:
Buffett, what do you set as your "MinEdge" for baseball (in terms of % or cents)?

I add a margin of safety to my valuation of teams that is based on the valuation error risk (young pitchers, teams deviating from projected worth ect. will add to the valuation error), then i bet fractional kelly on any edge off that number.

IrishTim · Apr 22, 2010

That's what I was asking, what margin of safety do you use? If you make the no-vig line -190 and you can get -188, I assume you don't bet it. What's the minimum edge you look for? Would you bet it at -185, 180, etc?

And if you don't mind, what fraction of kelly do you use? I tracked the whole winter my NBA model with flat betting (1 unit = 3% plays, 2 unit = 4-5% plays) and quarter kelly and the flat betting graded out higher. It's probably more of an indictment against my model than anything else but found it interesting. Thus far for bases I've been doing something similar, a kind of "scaled" flat betting according to my (perceived) advantage.

BTW - nice win with Cleveland. I missed it and of course I was on Pittsburgh +150 out of the early games. At least it was quick and painless.

buffettgambler · Apr 22, 2010

IrishTim said:
That's what I was asking, what margin of safety do you use? If you make the no-vig line -190 and you can get -188, I assume you don't bet it. What's the minimum edge you look for? Would you bet it at -185, 180, etc?

And if you don't mind, what fraction of kelly do you use? I tracked the whole winter my NBA model with flat betting (1 unit = 3% plays, 2 unit = 4-5% plays) and quarter kelly and the flat betting graded out higher. It's probably more of an indictment against my model than anything else but found it interesting. Thus far for bases I've been doing something similar, a kind of "scaled" flat betting according to my (perceived) advantage.

BTW - nice win with Cleveland. I missed it and of course I was on Pittsburgh +150 out of the early games. At least it was quick and painless.

My MOS varies from game to game. This early in the season, my average MOS is about 2.5%, so if I have a no-vig line at -120, the MOS line will be 123/-123. I will start entering bets at 124/-124 and above, where obviously the closer the bet line is to the MOS line, the smaller the size.

My fraction used also varies, and is contingent analysis including opening line/closing no vig-line convergence to my no-vig line, and other model accuracy tests.

Sorry to hear about your Pirates bet.

IrishTim · Apr 22, 2010

Thanks for the answers BG.

HacheMan · Apr 22, 2010

GL bg

TheHungerForMore · Apr 22, 2010

How would your model work if you didn't use kelly ratio?

buffettgambler · Apr 22, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
How would your model work if you didn't use kelly ratio?

The model is used to derive intrinsic values. Kelly is used to derive the optimal bet size from those intrinsic values. The model would not be effected, but my bankroll and returns would.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 22, 2010

buffettgambler said:
The model is used to derive intrinsic values. Kelly is used to derive the optimal bet size from those intrinsic values. The model would not be effected, but my bankroll and returns would.

Yeah, that's what i meant. How would your bankroll look if you didn't use kelly ratio?