MLB 4/23 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 23, 2010

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Large
Red Sox -207
I rarely find value on large favorites, but it does not take a lot of value to make a large favorite a large play. Starting the season with a 6 and 10 clip and with Lester not looking good out of the gates and coming off his worst outing since last May, the market sentiment on the Red Sox appears to be a bit bearish. With Millwood having a relatively close valuation with Guthrie, and the Orioles trading at the same price as they went off yesterday, the market appears to be valuing the Mariners at home with Felix the same as the Red Sox at Fenway with Lester. Intrinsically, this doesn’t make sense. The Orioles have won just two of 16 games, and now have to play an eighth straight road game. They have scored more than three runs in just four games thus far. Lester dominated the Orioles last year. His slow start is not uncharacteristic for him, so a potential injury or mechanical flaw is less probable. Backed by an elite bullpen, the Red Sox have leverage with his increased risk. Guthrie has three straight quality starts. The odds are stacked against him to make it four straight. No other team gave him more problems than the Red Sox last year. He also struggled in Fenway. In 08, his only start in Fenway was also a disaster. With the Red Sox past success against him coupled with their propensity to force high pitching counts on opposing pitchers, the Orioles bullpen should have a role in this game. Being the worst pen in baseball, this does not bode well for their chances.

bodyforlife · Apr 23, 2010

Thanks Chop

Stabler12 · Apr 23, 2010

bodyforlife said:
Thanks Chop

WTF is the matter w/ you?:think2: The guy picks the Braves a couple in a row and you turn into a damned fool?

Stabler12 · Apr 23, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG.

GordonGekko · Apr 23, 2010

Munson,

Forget fools like him. He doesn't know any better.

GL Buffett

chevycola · Apr 23, 2010

Thanks for posting Buffett.

I still don't like the game at -210 (which is what I could get), so I'm putting it in a parlay with the Phillies RL. If Boston is winning at the Phillies start time, I'll probably hedge to guarantee a small return.

Thanks again and GL!

Rip007 · Apr 23, 2010

Thanks

Stabler12 · Apr 23, 2010

Gordon Gekko said:
Munson,

Forget fools like him. He doesn't know any better.

GL Buffett

:toast:

TheHungerForMore · Apr 23, 2010

Yeah, Why isn't this in the -270/-300 range?

StewMinga · Apr 23, 2010

Ball Busters

Whenever there is a good capper on here, someone tries to drive them away.

buffettgambler · Apr 23, 2010

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Large

Rangers -115
The market appears to be agnostic to the pitching change from Feldman to Harden. Despite Harden’s slow start, an upgrade in the Rangers price is warranted with the pitching change. Harden is still pitching on normal rest, and his past success against some of the Tigers hitters and his style of pitching gives the Rangers a better chance of pitching success in this game. The injury to Guillen is material since the Tigers are electing to replace him with Boeash against right handed pitchers. Despite the Rangers injuries to their lineup, they still have a lineup edge and a bullpen edge. Schertzer looks decent thus far. But with starts against the Royals twice and once in Seattle, putting up those numbers are not nearly as impressive than they appear on the surface. This will be his first big test. He has not been able to surpass six, and the Tigers bullpen is weak. Not going past 6 while pitching well leaves little hope he avoids the front end of Detroit’s pen.

bodyforlife · Apr 23, 2010

LOL! The reference has nothing to do with the Braves. I don't care if BG takes the Braves and he clearly is an excellent capper. What makes you think I'm trying to drive anyone away (talk about paranoid). The reference is in regards to a former capper on here name CT (for some reason I can't spell it out or the profanity filter comes on). I asked BG yesterday if he was this guy just taking a new alias and he didn't answer so I assumed he was. I think you people need to take a chill pill just because someone is having some fun. No one is trying to drive anyone away and there is nothing demeaning or derogatory in anything I said. CT was an excellent capper. It's actually a compliment, but you paranoid people seem to have an issue with it. RELAX for crying out loud.

Stabler12 · Apr 23, 2010

Sorry, body, I just like to see BG able to concentrate on the picks in these threads. :toast:GL on the Rangers, BG, sorry I missed it while I was watching my Raiders screw up another high draft pick.

hno:

bodyforlife · Apr 23, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Sorry, body, I just like to see BG able to concentrate on the picks in these threads. :toast:GL on the Rangers, BG, sorry I missed it while I was watching my Raiders screw up another high draft pick.hno:

No sweat. It would be hard for me to be mad at anyone that takes the name of my favorite all time QB. Those were good times, but I've lost all faith in the Raiders organization now. Gave up my season tickets 2 years ago and have never looked back. Going to their games was no longer a good experience (they don't know how to treat their customers...especially someone that had rooted for them since childhood). I like being able to watch any games I want on Direct TV and not have to make the trek out to the Coliseum.

Stabler12 · Apr 24, 2010

Ironic you'd say that since I have had season tix since they came back in 1995.:toast: Thanks for the winners, BG.!~~~!

bodyforlife · Apr 24, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Ironic you'd say that since I have had season tix since they came back in 1995.:toast: Thanks for the winners, BG.!~~~!

Yep, I had to. Also lived in Southern Cal back in the mid 80's for a couple of years and had them there and went to games here back in the 70s as a teenager.

Stabler12 · Apr 24, 2010

Just noticed you live right across the bay, I'm in Pa., but loved the old days in Oakland and had to get involved when they moved back.:toast:

bodyforlife · Apr 24, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Just noticed you live right across the bay, I'm in Pa., but loved the old days in Oakland and had to get involved when they moved back.:toast:

Interesting. Did you grow up there? What made you start liking the Raiders?

Stabler12 · Apr 24, 2010

Beating Miami in the 74 playoffs, I hated Miami, simple as that, and the Giants (my original team) had moved out of New York City. Loved the black unis, Stabler, the muddy field, etc. Got hooked just in time to see them win a couple of times, and am now suffering through the lean years. Was at the 2000 and 2002 AFC title games, and usually go to one or two games a year. Last year, unfortunately, I took my 10-year old daughter to her first game and the Jets destroyed us.

bodyforlife · Apr 24, 2010

I was at both of those games also, and was at the AFC Championship game when they beat the Steelers and went on to win their first Superbowl.

MLB 4/23 Plays

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