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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> May add later
Large
Dodgers -168
On the surface, this looks like a steep price to pay for a road team that has been struggling and is facing a hot, upcoming home team. I am not sure if the market is shying away from the Dodgers because of Manny’s injury or that they are continuing to slowly bid up the Nationals price. I am not too worried about Kershaw’s high walk rate during his first three starts. His stuff appears to be working, as he has been really hard to hit and his strike out rate is high. Expect him to continually increase his control, while the Nationals should give him some favors with their lack of patience at the plate. The Natonals will also be without Zimmerman or Rodriguez in this game, while their replacements leave a lot to be desired in terms of offensive production. Stammen has been hit or miss thus far, but struggles most against left handed dominated lineups. The Dodgers have one of the most talented lineups in baseball from the left side. Stamen is not exactly an innings eater and struggles the third time around the lineup. This does not bode well fro the Nats, as he is not backed by a solid bullpen. The Dodgers bullpen has gotten better with the return of Kuo, and now ranks near the leagues best.
<o> </o>
Brewers +105
I think the market may be a bit aggressive with their Lilly pricing, as I don’t think he has shown enough evidence that he is the same pitcher with his new shoulder. He has pitched just 11 rehab innings, and will be on a 75-80 pitch count today. The Cubs front end bullpen is not ideal for this situation. Lilly really needs his control to be effective, as he is vulnerable to a high walk rate and fly ball rate when his control is not working for him. Against a powerful Brewers lineup and in a hitters park, Lilly can be in for a rough outing. Making matters worse is his past struggles against Braun and Fielder. Backing Davis is obviously a risk right now, but I feel I am being well compensated for that risk. His velocity is the same, his groundball rate has actually improved, and his K per BB is up this year. His numbers are bad because of his BABIP and HR per flyball rate. With his strikeout rate up and walk rate not up, this to me seems like his struggles have been heavily influence by some bad luck. He is backed by the better bullpen, which give the Brewers more leverage in handling their high risk pitcher.
<o> </o>
Diamondbacks -104
Even with a 15% drop in market price I still think the DBacks warrant a large play. This just goes to show how much I think oddsmakers missed with the opening line. The Phillies are becoming one of the most overvalued teams in the league. Without one of their better starters on the mound, the Phillies are putting sub par pitchers on the mound wire to wire. Fuigueroa is not built to be a starter, and his propensity to allow a lot of baserunners and struggle against left handed bats does not bode well for him in this match up. The Dbacks lineup is really solid and tough to beat at home. Just when I though the market was going to put a premium on Kendedy’s price, this line comes out. Kenendy is coming off a dominating start where he looked unhittable. This is a good sign after struggling a bit in his first two starts. He is a rare right hander that has been much harder for left handed hitters to have success against than right handers. This bodes well when facing the Phillies lineup. he has allowed just 1 home run to a left handed hitter in 40 plus innings.
<o> </o>
Cardinals -143
I have said it before and will say it again, take away Cain and Linecum, and the Giants have been consistently priced with an unwarranted premium. Even with being a pretty sizeable home dog, there appears to be a premium on their price tag. Wainwright is the real deal and appears to be in a zone right now. The Giants lineup is struggling and does not match up well against Wainwright. Being backed by a solid bullpen should give the Cardinals pitching the upper hand in this one throughout. I am not sold on Zito’s fast start. He has an unsustainable line drive rate and BABIP rate which has padded his numbers. He is striking out less hitters, and his curveball that he is heavily dependent on is providing less value than last year. The Cardinals have had past success against him, and their patience at the plate make it a difficult match up for him.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Upper Medium
Braves -134
Back on the Braves and Jurjens. Many were concerned that Jurjens was hiding an injury last week when his velocity was said to be down. Last start put those rumors to rest. He has a good spot to parlay that outing into another good one as he faces a lineup that he is familiar with and has dominated in past seasons. He is also backed by a better bullpen than his counterpart. The Braves lineup is underachieving right now, and Jurjens provides a good hedge for that. Niese is an ideal pitcher you want if you are a struggling lineup, as his high walk rate will allow a struggling lineup to get free passes to build off of. Niese is a little hard to pick up, but no team has seen more innings out of him than the Braves.
<o> </o>
Rays -141
I have consistently been more bearish on Romero than the market place. The market was constantly putting a premium on his price tag last year while I was claiming serious regression was in the cards. He fell off a cliff late in the season and made for easy money. Once again, he is posting numbers he can not maintain. Left handers have actually had more success against him than right handers. This is good for the Rays. I think his past success against the Rays lacks sustainability, and their lineup is seeing the ball real well right now. Nieman looks sharp so far. Two of the more dangerous Jay, Hill and Wells, come in a combined 3 for 19. Home field advantage is magnified in this series.
Large
Dodgers -168
On the surface, this looks like a steep price to pay for a road team that has been struggling and is facing a hot, upcoming home team. I am not sure if the market is shying away from the Dodgers because of Manny’s injury or that they are continuing to slowly bid up the Nationals price. I am not too worried about Kershaw’s high walk rate during his first three starts. His stuff appears to be working, as he has been really hard to hit and his strike out rate is high. Expect him to continually increase his control, while the Nationals should give him some favors with their lack of patience at the plate. The Natonals will also be without Zimmerman or Rodriguez in this game, while their replacements leave a lot to be desired in terms of offensive production. Stammen has been hit or miss thus far, but struggles most against left handed dominated lineups. The Dodgers have one of the most talented lineups in baseball from the left side. Stamen is not exactly an innings eater and struggles the third time around the lineup. This does not bode well fro the Nats, as he is not backed by a solid bullpen. The Dodgers bullpen has gotten better with the return of Kuo, and now ranks near the leagues best.
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Brewers +105
I think the market may be a bit aggressive with their Lilly pricing, as I don’t think he has shown enough evidence that he is the same pitcher with his new shoulder. He has pitched just 11 rehab innings, and will be on a 75-80 pitch count today. The Cubs front end bullpen is not ideal for this situation. Lilly really needs his control to be effective, as he is vulnerable to a high walk rate and fly ball rate when his control is not working for him. Against a powerful Brewers lineup and in a hitters park, Lilly can be in for a rough outing. Making matters worse is his past struggles against Braun and Fielder. Backing Davis is obviously a risk right now, but I feel I am being well compensated for that risk. His velocity is the same, his groundball rate has actually improved, and his K per BB is up this year. His numbers are bad because of his BABIP and HR per flyball rate. With his strikeout rate up and walk rate not up, this to me seems like his struggles have been heavily influence by some bad luck. He is backed by the better bullpen, which give the Brewers more leverage in handling their high risk pitcher.
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Diamondbacks -104
Even with a 15% drop in market price I still think the DBacks warrant a large play. This just goes to show how much I think oddsmakers missed with the opening line. The Phillies are becoming one of the most overvalued teams in the league. Without one of their better starters on the mound, the Phillies are putting sub par pitchers on the mound wire to wire. Fuigueroa is not built to be a starter, and his propensity to allow a lot of baserunners and struggle against left handed bats does not bode well for him in this match up. The Dbacks lineup is really solid and tough to beat at home. Just when I though the market was going to put a premium on Kendedy’s price, this line comes out. Kenendy is coming off a dominating start where he looked unhittable. This is a good sign after struggling a bit in his first two starts. He is a rare right hander that has been much harder for left handed hitters to have success against than right handers. This bodes well when facing the Phillies lineup. he has allowed just 1 home run to a left handed hitter in 40 plus innings.
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Cardinals -143
I have said it before and will say it again, take away Cain and Linecum, and the Giants have been consistently priced with an unwarranted premium. Even with being a pretty sizeable home dog, there appears to be a premium on their price tag. Wainwright is the real deal and appears to be in a zone right now. The Giants lineup is struggling and does not match up well against Wainwright. Being backed by a solid bullpen should give the Cardinals pitching the upper hand in this one throughout. I am not sold on Zito’s fast start. He has an unsustainable line drive rate and BABIP rate which has padded his numbers. He is striking out less hitters, and his curveball that he is heavily dependent on is providing less value than last year. The Cardinals have had past success against him, and their patience at the plate make it a difficult match up for him.
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Upper Medium
Braves -134
Back on the Braves and Jurjens. Many were concerned that Jurjens was hiding an injury last week when his velocity was said to be down. Last start put those rumors to rest. He has a good spot to parlay that outing into another good one as he faces a lineup that he is familiar with and has dominated in past seasons. He is also backed by a better bullpen than his counterpart. The Braves lineup is underachieving right now, and Jurjens provides a good hedge for that. Niese is an ideal pitcher you want if you are a struggling lineup, as his high walk rate will allow a struggling lineup to get free passes to build off of. Niese is a little hard to pick up, but no team has seen more innings out of him than the Braves.
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Rays -141
I have consistently been more bearish on Romero than the market place. The market was constantly putting a premium on his price tag last year while I was claiming serious regression was in the cards. He fell off a cliff late in the season and made for easy money. Once again, he is posting numbers he can not maintain. Left handers have actually had more success against him than right handers. This is good for the Rays. I think his past success against the Rays lacks sustainability, and their lineup is seeing the ball real well right now. Nieman looks sharp so far. Two of the more dangerous Jay, Hill and Wells, come in a combined 3 for 19. Home field advantage is magnified in this series.