MLB 4/24 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 24, 2010

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Dodgers -168
On the surface, this looks like a steep price to pay for a road team that has been struggling and is facing a hot, upcoming home team. I am not sure if the market is shying away from the Dodgers because of Manny’s injury or that they are continuing to slowly bid up the Nationals price. I am not too worried about Kershaw’s high walk rate during his first three starts. His stuff appears to be working, as he has been really hard to hit and his strike out rate is high. Expect him to continually increase his control, while the Nationals should give him some favors with their lack of patience at the plate. The Natonals will also be without Zimmerman or Rodriguez in this game, while their replacements leave a lot to be desired in terms of offensive production. Stammen has been hit or miss thus far, but struggles most against left handed dominated lineups. The Dodgers have one of the most talented lineups in baseball from the left side. Stamen is not exactly an innings eater and struggles the third time around the lineup. This does not bode well fro the Nats, as he is not backed by a solid bullpen. The Dodgers bullpen has gotten better with the return of Kuo, and now ranks near the leagues best.
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Brewers +105
I think the market may be a bit aggressive with their Lilly pricing, as I don’t think he has shown enough evidence that he is the same pitcher with his new shoulder. He has pitched just 11 rehab innings, and will be on a 75-80 pitch count today. The Cubs front end bullpen is not ideal for this situation. Lilly really needs his control to be effective, as he is vulnerable to a high walk rate and fly ball rate when his control is not working for him. Against a powerful Brewers lineup and in a hitters park, Lilly can be in for a rough outing. Making matters worse is his past struggles against Braun and Fielder. Backing Davis is obviously a risk right now, but I feel I am being well compensated for that risk. His velocity is the same, his groundball rate has actually improved, and his K per BB is up this year. His numbers are bad because of his BABIP and HR per flyball rate. With his strikeout rate up and walk rate not up, this to me seems like his struggles have been heavily influence by some bad luck. He is backed by the better bullpen, which give the Brewers more leverage in handling their high risk pitcher.
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Diamondbacks -104
Even with a 15% drop in market price I still think the DBacks warrant a large play. This just goes to show how much I think oddsmakers missed with the opening line. The Phillies are becoming one of the most overvalued teams in the league. Without one of their better starters on the mound, the Phillies are putting sub par pitchers on the mound wire to wire. Fuigueroa is not built to be a starter, and his propensity to allow a lot of baserunners and struggle against left handed bats does not bode well for him in this match up. The Dbacks lineup is really solid and tough to beat at home. Just when I though the market was going to put a premium on Kendedy’s price, this line comes out. Kenendy is coming off a dominating start where he looked unhittable. This is a good sign after struggling a bit in his first two starts. He is a rare right hander that has been much harder for left handed hitters to have success against than right handers. This bodes well when facing the Phillies lineup. he has allowed just 1 home run to a left handed hitter in 40 plus innings.
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Cardinals -143
I have said it before and will say it again, take away Cain and Linecum, and the Giants have been consistently priced with an unwarranted premium. Even with being a pretty sizeable home dog, there appears to be a premium on their price tag. Wainwright is the real deal and appears to be in a zone right now. The Giants lineup is struggling and does not match up well against Wainwright. Being backed by a solid bullpen should give the Cardinals pitching the upper hand in this one throughout. I am not sold on Zito’s fast start. He has an unsustainable line drive rate and BABIP rate which has padded his numbers. He is striking out less hitters, and his curveball that he is heavily dependent on is providing less value than last year. The Cardinals have had past success against him, and their patience at the plate make it a difficult match up for him.
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Braves -134
Back on the Braves and Jurjens. Many were concerned that Jurjens was hiding an injury last week when his velocity was said to be down. Last start put those rumors to rest. He has a good spot to parlay that outing into another good one as he faces a lineup that he is familiar with and has dominated in past seasons. He is also backed by a better bullpen than his counterpart. The Braves lineup is underachieving right now, and Jurjens provides a good hedge for that. Niese is an ideal pitcher you want if you are a struggling lineup, as his high walk rate will allow a struggling lineup to get free passes to build off of. Niese is a little hard to pick up, but no team has seen more innings out of him than the Braves.
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Rays -141
I have consistently been more bearish on Romero than the market place. The market was constantly putting a premium on his price tag last year while I was claiming serious regression was in the cards. He fell off a cliff late in the season and made for easy money. Once again, he is posting numbers he can not maintain. Left handers have actually had more success against him than right handers. This is good for the Rays. I think his past success against the Rays lacks sustainability, and their lineup is seeing the ball real well right now. Nieman looks sharp so far. Two of the more dangerous Jay, Hill and Wells, come in a combined 3 for 19. Home field advantage is magnified in this series.

Stabler12 · Apr 24, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG!

GordonGekko · Apr 24, 2010

Thanks BG,

I'm on most of these including Dodgers over. Not that I allow umpires to effect my plays but Crawford has a very tight zone. His strike percentage has been around 61.5 percent throughout his career which may lead to a large walk propensity. He's 3-1 on O/U this year. Zimmerman is a key loss for Washington as well as having Pudge behind the plate, I think we see a bundle of walks in this game leading to a high scoring rate. Washington's bullpen is not good. Although showers are expected..

GLTU

GordonGekko · Apr 24, 2010

Buffett,

The drop in price in Braves would you buyback due to McCann's absence?

NyMets609 · Apr 24, 2010

really like the Cards and Wainwright today. gl.

buffettgambler · Apr 24, 2010

Gordon Gekko said:
Buffett,

The drop in price in Braves would you buyback due to McCann's absence?

No, I have upgraded the Braves intrinsic value. If both teams were starting all starters, I would value the Braves 8 cents less than I do with the current lineup. Ross replacing McCann with a southpaw on the mound is only a slight downgrade. No Castilla and Barrajas should be bigger concerns. I have added a little bit to my original position.

BOL GG and Munson.

Vancouverfan · Apr 24, 2010

Wouldn't you attribute most of Romero's late season struggles last year to hitting the rookie wall?? He'd never pitched near that amount of innings in a season in his life and it showed with a tired arm as can be quite common with rookie pitchers. He's looked great to start the season. That being said I'm staying off this game, good luck

buffettgambler · Apr 24, 2010

Vancouver fan said:
Wouldn't you attribute most of Romero's late season struggles last year to hitting the rookie wall?? He'd never pitched near that amount of innings in a season in his life and it showed with a tired arm as can be quite common with rookie pitchers. He's looked great to start the season. That being said I'm staying off this game, good luck

Partially. That combined with him battling some nagging injuries late in the season, the league catching up to him, and him overachieving early on. A lot of the blame can be for his 6 long starts in just 25 days late in the season, but without showing much in the Minors and having a fastball that is producing decreased utility, I think this guy is yet again going to regress sometime soon.

tk2wndw · Apr 24, 2010

BG, how much do you take into consideration that the dodgers haven't faced a guy like Stammen before? I am leaning towards LAD but I got 180 which seems a bit too steep to me.

buffettgambler · Apr 24, 2010

tk2wndw said:
BG, how much do you take into consideration that the dodgers haven't faced a guy like Stammen before? I am leaning towards LAD but I got 180 which seems a bit too steep to me.

Not too much. Stammen is not terribly deceptive and is a pitch to contact pitcher. That said, the opposition has gotten the better hand of the Stammens second starts against them.

On a side note, the no vig line on the Dodgers right now is -162. If you can not get a price better than 18 cents more than the no vig line, you are setting yourself up for failure. The baseball market is simply to efficient, especially this close to game time, to be paying a premium like that and expecting to come out ahead in the long run.
Best of luck.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 24, 2010

I think Nieman is garbage, but Bluejays are being priced badly here.

buffettgambler · Apr 24, 2010

May add later
Adding
Large
Angels +122
The market is sending this one in the wrong direction. Pineiro is in a zone right now, and have the best groundball rate in baseball right now is exactly what you want when facing a powerful Yankees lineup. The Yankees are without two of their better low ball hitters in Johnson and Posada. Pettite has had problems with the Angels in the past. Market is pricing him too richly right now.

FearTheRaven · Apr 24, 2010

bg, need your thoughts on the chi sox if possible.

buffettgambler · Apr 24, 2010

FearTheRaven said:
bg, need your thoughts on the chi sox if possible.

I have them as a medium play. I think the market is overly bearish on Garcia, and now is the time to back him.

FearTheRaven · Apr 24, 2010

thanks man, was thinking the same.

buffettgambler · Apr 24, 2010

May add later
Adding
Large
Red Sox -166
How often do you see the market drop the Red Sox price by almost 15%? How about when they are facing a 2-15 team? The Red Sox are rarely undervalued, but the time to back them is when they are out of favor. They are simply too good of a team to be in a prolong slump. Lackey is an emotional pitcher. A good time to back him is when he is coming off an embarrassing outing, which is the case for him today. The Orioles are really struggling at the plate. Lackey has had past success against them. The Red Sox have a huge disparity in quality bullpens. Mutsuz is becoming an over hyped young pitcher. He has nasty stuff, but has yet to prove himself. Being a strikeout pitcher is fine, but not when you are backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. He is not a candidate to go deep into this game, giving the Red Sox a nice advantage in the latter stages of the game.

Stabler12 · Apr 24, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 24, 2010

I love Blue jays bullpen.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 24, 2010

:lolBIG: Were you bored, BG and had a lot of free time. Lot of plays.

cadillacman · Apr 24, 2010

It is troubling watching the Red Sox play...

MLB 4/24 Plays

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