MLB 4/25 Plays

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Red Sox -152
Good value here betting on a solid underachieving team at home picking up momentum and betting against a 2-16 team whose bullpen problems are very concerning. Wakefield has not looked good so far this year, but this is a good spot for him to put in a good start. The knuckleball is much more effective in the day. The Orioles have not seen it in a couple of years, and the better hitters on the team have struggled badly against it in the past. Winnington, Roberts, and Markakis come into this game with a combined 13 for 78 against Wakefield. I am not big on Hernandez. His flyball propensity is not a good matchup for him in this park and against a powerful Red Sox lineup. He has allowed 7 home runs to the Red Sox in just 20 innings. As we once again got to notice yesterday, he is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. Van Every is a nice addition to the Red Sox lineup.
 

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Thanks Buffett. I entered a play on the Boston -1.5 (+135) last night. Do you ever play RLs or just stick moneylines in bases?

Obviously the two are correlated and I guess it comes down to your ML/RL conversions but just curious if you play runlines at all.
 

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I see much more value betting the second half of this game at -120, bullpens are not even close, Balt is a AAA team
 

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Thanks Buffett. I entered a play on the Boston -1.5 (+135) last night. Do you ever play RLs or just stick moneylines in bases?

Obviously the two are correlated and I guess it comes down to your ML/RL conversions but just curious if you play runlines at all.

Almost all Money lines.
 

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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> Will add later when lineups come out.
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Dodgers -150
Much like the Red Sox, the Dodgers are a solid team that is underachieving and is out of favor. Billingsley fits that description as well, as he is a solid pitcher out of favor right now. He is coming off two horrible starts, but what plagued him in those two starts are a quick fix, as he may have been tipping his pitches and was becoming too dependent on one pitch. I am expecting a rebound here. He is also backed by one of the deeper bullpens in the league, and Torre has expressed that he will have a short leash on him this week before any major damage can occur. Olson has also been off to a slow start. However, he lacks the upside Billingsley has, lacks the favorable matchup to bounce back, and what has plagued him thus far may take time to overcome. He is also not backed by the quality bullpen. The Nats lineup is starting to show signs of cooling down, and they clearly miss Zimmerman’s presence in the heart of the lineup.
 

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Upper Medium
Rangers -146
The Tigers are a pricey team. Their lineup is overrated and overachieving. They will also be without key veterans in the likes of Guillen, Ordonez and Laird who match up better against a crafty pitcher like Lewis compared to your younger counterparts. Lewis looks good out of the gates. His strikeout rate is up, and his ability to get opposing hitters to swing out of the strike zone is well above league average and is exactly what you want against an aggressive hitting lineup like the Tigers. Porcello does not look good on the mound right now. He is really hittable and his streakiness last year makes me think he may be in for some more bad outings some time in the next few starts. He is lacking confidence on the mound right now, which is not ideal being a power pitcher facing a power lineup. The Rangers have the talent from the left side that has given Porcello problems in the past. He is backed by a sub par, overworked bullpen. The Rangers getting Cruz back in the lineup is an obvious plus.
 

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BG, what are you feelings on the Braves tonight? As much as I love the Mets I really don't see them getting to Hanson much tonight. He will dominate them and I can't see us taking 3 straight games, just not swinging the bats well enough, especially against such a quality starter like Hanson.
 

Rx Junior
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Oct 27, 2008
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I'd like to ttake the Braves but Hanson is coming at a cheap ass price, line makes me wonder. I'd expected Hanson to be a much bigger fav over Pelfrey, even on the road.
 

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I'd like to ttake the Braves but Hanson is coming at a cheap ass price, line makes me wonder. I'd expected Hanson to be a much bigger fav over Pelfrey, even on the road.

Mets are 9-9 now which is better than the Braves, most people don't realize that and Pelfrey is 3-0 with an ERA of .086. yes .086. I'd say the price is just about right.

that being said though I am on the Braves.
 

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Mets are 9-9 now which is better than the Braves, most people don't realize that and Pelfrey is 3-0 with an ERA of .086. yes .086. I'd say the price is just about right.

that being said though I am on the Braves.

what's your source on that info? according to mlb.com Pelfrey's 2-5 with 6.09 era against braves.
 

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Kind of a rough weekend.
Adding
Large
Braves -112

Going right back on the Braves. They are really out of favor right now,as playing a hard schedule out of the gate has started to catch up with them. Their lineup has been doing decently getting runners on, but have failed to produce with runners on. There is no fundamental reason for this to happen to this lineup, so I don't think this trend lacks any sustainability. Pelfrey looks good so far, but this is a good spot for a reality check. He has struggled a lot against the Braves in the past, and they know his tendencies well. Left handed bats have almost hit .300 against him in his career. Facing five won't do him any favors. Sooner or later, Hanson will not be trading so cheaply. He is pitching with confidence right now and has done well in tight situations. He is backed by the better bullpen. The top of the Mets order is underachieving. The Mets power hitters all come from the right side. Right handed hitters are a career .192 against Hanson.
 

Snake
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
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907
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Thanks and GL, BG. I know streaks don't bother you, and the Braves are due to get one here.
 

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