Dodgers v. Mets Insight

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For those who are interested:

Dodgers SP John Ely will make his major-league debut Wednesday against the Mets, according to MLB.com. Despite having made only three Triple-A starts in his brief career, Dodgers manager Joe Torre is rolling the dice with Ely. "I watched him pitch one time in spring," Torre said. "He looked very aggressive. We'll probably be able to tell early if his personality is good out there."

<TABLE id=standard_pitching class="sortable stats_table"><THEAD><TR onmouseover=hl(this); onmouseout=uhl(this);><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" align=left table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="0">Year</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onmouseover="Tip('Player’s age at midnight of June 30th of that year')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="1">Age</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="2">Tm</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc" onmouseover="Tip('League
AL - American League (1901-present)
NL - National League (1876-present)
AA - American Association (1882-1891)
UA - Union Association (1884)
PL - Players League (1890)
FL - Federal League (1914-1915)
NA - National Association (1871-1875)')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="3">Lg</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc" onmouseover="Tip('Classification of League
Classifications have changed over time but have generally ranged from
AAA to AA to A and then Short-Season or Rookie and B, C, D, etc.')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="4">Lev</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc" onmouseover="Tip('Affiliation
Major league franchise(s) that either owns this affiliate or has an agreement with this team.')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="5">Aff</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Wins')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="6">W</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Losses')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="7">L</TH><TH class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onmouseover="Tip('Win-Loss Percentage
W / (W + L)
For players, leaders need one decision for every ten team games.
For managers, minimum to qualify for leading is 320 games.')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="8">W-L%</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onmouseover="Tip('9 * ER / IP
For recent years, leaders need 1 IP
per team game played')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="9">ERA</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Games Played or Pitched')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="10">G</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Games Started')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="11">GS</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Games Finished')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="12">GF</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Complete Game')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="13">CG</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Shutouts
No runs allowed and a complete game.')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="14">SHO</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Saves')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="15">SV</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Innings Pitched')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="16">IP</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Hits/Hits Allowed')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="17">H</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Runs Scored/Allowed')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="18">R</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Earned Runs Allowed')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="19">ER</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Home Runs Hit/Allowed')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="20">HR</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Bases on Balls/Walks')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="21">BB</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Intentional Bases on Balls
First tracked in 1955.')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="22">IBB</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Strikeouts')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="23">SO</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Times Hit by a Pitch.')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="24">HBP</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Balks')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="25">BK</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Wild Pitches')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="26">WP</TH><TH class=tooltip onmouseover="Tip('Batters Faced')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="27">BF</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onmouseover="Tip('(BB + H)/IP
For recent years, leaders need 1 IP
per team game played')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="28">WHIP</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onmouseover="Tip('9 x H / IP
For recent years, leaders need 1 IP
per team game played')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="29">H/9</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onmouseover="Tip('9 x HR / IP
For recent years, leaders need 1 IP
per team game played')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="30">HR/9</TH><TH class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onmouseover="Tip('9 x BB / IP
For recent years, leaders need 1 IP
per team game played')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="31">BB/9</TH><TH class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onmouseover="Tip('9 x SO / IP
For recent years, leaders need 1 IP
per team game played')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="32">SO/9</TH><TH class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onmouseover="Tip('SO/BB
For recent years, leaders need 1 IP
per team game played')" align=middle table_number="1" sorttable_columnindex="33">SO/BB</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=" full" onmouseover=hl(this); onmouseout=uhl(this);><TD align=left csk="2007.01">2007</TD><TD align=right csk="21.01">21</TD><TD align=left>Great Falls</TD><TD align=left>PION</TD><TD align=left csk="130.0000">Rk</TD><TD align=left>CHW</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.857</TD><TD align=right>3.86</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>56.0</TD><TD align=right>55</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>56</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>230</TD><TD align=right>1.232</TD><TD align=right>8.8</TD><TD align=right>1.0</TD><TD align=right>2.2</TD><TD align=right>9.0</TD><TD align=right>4.00</TD></TR><TR class=" full" onmouseover=hl(this); onmouseout=uhl(this);><TD align=left csk="2008.02">2008</TD><TD align=right csk="22.02">22</TD><TD align=left>Winston-Salem</TD><TD align=left>CARL</TD><TD align=left csk="70.0000">A+</TD><TD align=left>CHW</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>.455</TD><TD align=right>4.71</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>145.1</TD><TD align=right>142</TD><TD align=right>83</TD><TD align=right>76</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>46</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>134</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>610</TD><TD align=right>1.294</TD><TD align=right>8.8</TD><TD align=right>1.1</TD><TD align=right>2.8</TD><TD align=right>8.3</TD><TD align=right>2.91</TD></TR><TR class=" full" onmouseover=hl(this); onmouseout=uhl(this);><TD align=left csk="2009.03">2009</TD><TD align=right csk="23.03">23</TD><TD align=left>Birmingham</TD><TD align=left>SOUL</TD><TD align=left csk="60.0000">AA</TD><TD align=left>CHW</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.875</TD><TD align=right>2.82</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>156.1</TD><TD align=right>140</TD><TD align=right>63</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>50</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>125</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>638</TD><TD align=right>1.215</TD><TD align=right>8.1</TD><TD align=right>0.5</TD><TD align=right>2.9</TD><TD align=right>7.2</TD><TD align=right>2.50</TD></TR><TR class=" full" onmouseover=hl(this); onmouseout=uhl(this);><TD align=left csk="2010.04">2010</TD><TD align=right csk="24.04">24</TD><TD align=left>Albuquerque</TD><TD align=left>PCL</TD><TD align=left csk="50.0000">AAA</TD><TD align=left>LAD</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.667</TD><TD align=right>3.00</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>18.0</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>79</TD><TD align=right>1.333</TD><TD align=right>8.0</TD><TD align=right>0.5</TD><TD align=right>4.0</TD><TD align=right>6.0</TD><TD align=right>1.50</TD></TR></TBODY><TFOOT><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffa" class=" stat_total" onmouseover=hl(this); onmouseout=uhl(this);><TD colSpan=6 align=left>4 Seasons</TD><TD align=right>32</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>.667</TD><TD align=right>3.71</TD><TD align=right>70</TD><TD align=right>69</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>375.2</TD><TD align=right>353</TD><TD align=right>178</TD><TD align=right>155</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>118</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>327</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>1557</TD><TD align=right>1.254</TD><TD align=right>8.5</TD><TD align=right>0.8</TD><TD align=right>2.8</TD><TD align=right>7.8</TD><TD align=right>2.77</TD></TR></TFOOT></TABLE>
 

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My take:

Ely is not proven as seen above. I usually love going against pitchers who just get brought up with no prior experience; especially, if their numbers in the minors aren't very impressive and they have to face a good team. He has no experience in the majors and is facing a Mets team who is been playing good ball. However, this situation isn't really fitting as Ely has had decent stuff in the minors and a Mets offensive lineup that has the potential to go off.

Maine has not looked good at all this far into the short season ie. 8.64 ERA in 11 innings pitched. He left early in his last outting because of elbow smasms in his throwing arm. Apparently, his is having trouble gaining velocity on his fastball even though he says he is healthy. On top of that, take a look at his all-time stats against this LA lineup...they are batting .330 against him with an OBP of .375. He has only struck out 13 of 97 at bats against the Dodger lineup conbined. Not really spectacular numbers.

When looking at both of the above pitchers, I don't really feel safe backing either one. Both are questionable; both have the potential to get touched up.

Therefore, the safest play here is the over. I doubt Maine will last that long, and Ely is inexperienced. Also, the wind is blowing heavy OUT to right 20+ mph. All conditions that make for a high scoring game.

***OVER 9
 

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One more with analysis:

Now I'm going to take my winnings from above (2U) and put it on the Yankees. Here is my low down on the game:

Sabathia has been pitching well this far into the year. He has an even 3.00 ERA, with a 1.66 ERA his last 3 starts. He has also pitched very well against the Orioles bats in the past ie. out of 141 ABs they are only batting .262 with just 4 HRs and 16 RBIs.

Guthrie has not looked that terrible this far into the season. He is 0-2 (0-4 as a team) in his first 4 starts, but despite the bad record his ERA is at 3.46. He just isn't getting any run support, which could be a big problem with CC on the mound. He also has not done terrific against the Yankees in the past. Last year he pitched roughly 25 innings against NY and gave up 13 runs (approx. 4.25 ERA) with a record of 1-3.

Overall, I see Balt offense having trouble with Sabathia. I can also see NY getting to Guthrie to a certain extent considering his past, which will lead to the Os bullpen. Balt bullpen has a 4.40 ERA overall, which is not good when facing Yankee bats.

As far as totals go, I can't put a finger on it. I feel that NY will be able to put some runs on the board (maybe 5-7 runs), but I'm not sure how well Balt will fare (maybe 2-4 runs, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 0-1).

In my opinion, the best bet in this game is to take the Yankees. I know it's a lot of chalk, but I'm pretty confident in this one. I'm going to take my two units won on the over in the Mets game and risk it on NY - either winning 3 bills today or losing a little change.

*** Yankees -220
 

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Good write ups and GL. Scares me that literally 99% of public is on the NYY
 

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Last play:

Last one for tonight

I'm taking WSox/Rangers UNDER 9

The short of it:

The wind is blowing in hard from right field (20+ mph), which is good because we should see more fly balls get hung up due to the wind. Besides that, Chi's offense has been terrible, and the Rangers are still somewhat lacking without Cruz and Kinsler. I know both pitchers have been struggling, but tonight's weather conditions and offensive lineups should be helpful.

***WSox and Rangers UNDER 9
 

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