MLB 4/28 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 28, 2010

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Large
Padres -125
This just goes to show you how much I though the Padres were undervalued on the overnight. The recent line bump was a combination of the market providing more efficiency to the line and processing the new material information with the lineup card. In my opinion, this is the strongest lineup the Padres are putting forth all season. This by far is the Marlins most anemic. Ramirez has the most value over his replacement player than any other player in baseball. When he is out, the Marlins intrinsic value takes a hit. No Sanchez or Ross makes me think the Marlins are resting up for their next series. Corriea is in a zone right now. Like Garland last night, his style of pitching matches up well against an aggressive Marlins lineup. Backed by a great bullpen will make it hard for the Marlins to put runs on the board. Robertson is coming off his worst start of the season. He was overachieving out the gates, and that start is a warning sign. Padres have the better pitching on the mound throughout. With all the lineup changes, they surprisingly have the better lineup in this one as well.

MemphisMonroe · Apr 28, 2010

Nice to see you think padres the play too.:howdy:

Stabler12 · Apr 28, 2010

WOW, I wish I was on this before the line move. Just posted on another thread that I liked Florida +120.:smoking:Thanks and GL, BG. Good day for me to check in throughout, unlike Thursdays and Sundays (golf days).@)

Rip007 · Apr 28, 2010

My understanding was that Corriera was money last year

buffettgambler · Apr 28, 2010

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Large
Brewers -146
Not big on letdown spot in baseball, but after the Pirates snapped a 22 game losing streak to the Brewers last night, I think they are vulnerable to one in this game. Nonetheless, backing Maholm on the road has been a recipe for disaster throughout his career. He simply can not pitch effectively outside of his home park. The Brewers are very familiar with him, have had past success against him, are getting progressively better against him, and have had their most success against him in their home park. The Pirates bullpen is sub par and struggling. The Brewers should get their scoring opportunities. Narvenson is a wildcard, but the lack of talent in the Brewers rotation makes this a good thing. He excelled in the starting rotation in spring training, has expressed his preference to being a starter, and seems more comfortable as a starter. Expect a determined pitcher on the mound today. Doumit out is a material downgrade.

Rip007 · Apr 28, 2010

pinny and greek up to -133 on Pods

tk2wndw · Apr 28, 2010

Robertson is also on short rest for the marlins, like the pads in this spot as well.

Stabler12 · Apr 28, 2010

Trying to get the Brew Crew -140. Thanks and GL, BG.

tk2wndw · Apr 28, 2010

BG, what do you think of the brewers over 5 runs -130? Bit concerned by Narverson.

buffettgambler · Apr 28, 2010

tk2wndw said:
BG, what do you think of the brewers over 5 runs -130? Bit concerned by Narverson.

I don't feel comfortable quantifying that line, but on the surface, the Brewers ML looks like the better play.

buffettgambler · Apr 28, 2010

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Large
Mets +100
I don’t get this line right here. I found the Dodgers undervalue in 2 of the games in this series and since then the Mets have looked much better and the Dodgers much worse. One would think the Dodgers would be even more undervalued today. Clearly the disconnect in pricing is based on an unknown pitcher in Ely. Unlike the market, I want to see something good from him before making him a road favorite against a hot team and while being backed by a slumping one. Ely has average stuff, but good command. Being his first start, he is prone to nerves, which bodes much worse for a command pitcher than a power pitcher. Nauert has a smaller than average strike zone, which will also put him at a disadvantage. The Dodgers used a lot of bullpen in their double header last night. If things don’t go well early for him, Torres ability to pull the plug may not be there. Maine has not looked good, but his injury is on his non throwing arm. Good spot for him to bounce back against a tired, struggling lineup.

Rip007 · Apr 28, 2010

think that the market might have overcompensated for Rameriz ?????

buffettgambler · Apr 28, 2010

Rip007 said:
think that the market might have overcompensated for Rameriz ?????

Not at all. Nor am I a fan of ex post facto analysis

Rip007 · Apr 28, 2010

Did not mean to offend.....Sorry

MemphisMonroe · Apr 28, 2010

Memphis Monroe said:
Nice to see you think padres the play too.:howdy:

:money8:

buffettgambler · Apr 28, 2010

Rip007 said:
Did not mean to offend.....Sorry

No offense taken. Best of luck today.

buffettgambler · Apr 28, 2010

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Upper Medium
Indians +158
Santana makes for a dangerous large favorite due to his high variance propensity. He also has shown signs of being prone to the long ball, already allowing six, which plagued his season last year. Santana has struggled against the Indians in the past, which is not surprising, as he is most vulnerable against lineups with power from the left side. With the Indians not built to manufacture runs, this is an ideal pitching opponent for them. The Angels bullpen is nothing special. Westbrook is a wildcard, but at this price, he is worth the risk in my opinion. Although his surface stats do not look good, being a sinkerball pitcher, his nice groundball rate, which has gotten better with each start is a good sign.

buffettgambler · Apr 28, 2010

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Upper Medium
Red Sox -139
With Lester on the mound, the Blue Jays are put into a situation where they are forced to put some of their key hitters on the bench. A depleted lineup is not something you want when backed by a struggling bullpen and a subpar pitcher. Cecil is bit more too vulnerable to the walk and home run to match up well against a patient lineup with their fair share of pop. He has been absolutely dominated by the Red Sox in the past, allowing seven home runs in nine innings pitched. Lester is coming off his best outing of the season. Backing him on an uptick is ideal after raising concerns out of the gate. Lester has pitched well against the Jays in the past. No other lineup is dependent on the long ball for runs than the Blue Jays are. Lester is solid at keeping the ball in the park.

Stabler12 · Apr 28, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. Tough loss kept us from an afternoon sweep. Don't understand how a competent major league team like Milwaukee can't come up with someone better than Hoffman to close.

YouMyBoy · Apr 28, 2010

You may be my favorite person to follow on here right now. Your write-ups are always right on, win or lose, and you seem to be winning way more than losing. I just mainly like the insight you have that I do not, like umpires with smaller strike zones, and whether they are power or command pitchers.

Wondering what you think of the DET/MIN over 8.5? Seemed like the clearest bet of the day for me, but I'm new at this.

Thanks much