MLB 4/29 Plays

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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> My add later
Large
A’s +147
I have been saying it for quite sometime, Romero is being priced for perfection, a level that he simply can not sustain. The market has made the market price of the A’s more than 20% cheaper from the open. But why? Where is the material edge that the Blue Jays have in this game? Starting pitching? Duchscherer has not allowed a run in three starts, and continues to have his career fly under the radar as he is now approaching 500 innings and a sub 3 ERA. He has found his zone, and has always been dominant when healthy. The Blue Jays rely too much on the home run for runs. Duchsherer has allowed only one all year, and is currently sitting on his highest groundball rate in his career. The only knock on him is he is not built to go deep into games. But that doesn’t really matter when backed by a solid bullpen like the A’s. Romero continues to look solid. But again, I question the sustainability. His surface numbers continue to impress, but his last start, his flyball rate increased and was only able to strikeout 3. He is heavily dependent on getting hitters to swing and miss outside the zone. The A’s possess patience at the plate.
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Brewers +128
The Padres have been my biggest money maker so far this season, but I am starting to notice the market is giving them much more value on their road games compared to their home games, as they continue to impress at home. This may be a tough series for the Padres, as they really lack the bats to hang in there with the Brewers. They will need great starting pitching, and that is what LeBalanc has given them thus far. But I question the sustainability of his success, as his FIP/ERA disparity suggests a lot of luck in his first two starts. Davis is coming off his best start of the season, and his ERA is not terribly concerning, as his strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is in his normal range, he is doing a good job getting the grounballs, and his troubles against right handers lacks sustainability as he has been harder for right handers to hit throughout his career.
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Upper Medium
Braves +164
I am well aware of the Braves struggles. But you simply can not give a team with this much upside and being backed by Jurrjens on the mound this high of a price. Jurjens continues to improve off of his slow start. He has allowed just nine hits in his last 14 innings pitched. His past success against the Cardinals should continue without Pujols in the lineup. The market has tried to compensate for his absence, but still have has not fully corrected his absence. Glauss is also out, which should also help the Braves. Wainwright is in a zone, but his hot streak is no longer going ignored by the marketplace.
 

Snake
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Apr 11, 2007
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Thanks for being early, I'm heading for the links in a few. And, as always, GL, BG.
 

Member
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I was kinda shocked to see the Braves as this much of a dog.
Good writeups as usual.

I'm on the Braves, but waiting on the A's and Brewers. BG - do you think their odds as dogs will rise or fall as the day goes on?

GL !
 

New member
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Dec 19, 2005
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I was kinda shocked to see the Braves as this much of a dog.
Good writeups as usual.

I'm on the Braves, but waiting on the A's and Brewers. BG - do you think their odds as dogs will rise or fall as the day goes on?

GL !

I am a believer of the efficient market, so I think the price will converge to mine as the game approaches first pitch. I am not too surprised that the Jays price rose off the open though, but think it has topped out.
 

New member
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BG, I like Oakland too but having a real hard time pulling the trigger. They are hitting .179 on the road against lefties. scary.
 

Member
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I am a believer of the efficient market, so I think the price will converge to mine as the game approaches first pitch. I am not too surprised that the Jays price rose off the open though, but think it has topped out.

I've been watching that A's line. It's gone from +148, down to +142, now back up to +147. I'm locking it in now. Just as an FYI, the Brewers have dropped to +120. Locking them both in along with my other play.

GL BG!
 

New member
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Aug 26, 2009
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BG...thanks...a guy named Doug.....has posted about you
just FYI
 

New member
Joined
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u jinxed Duchsherer in your write up. Just gave up b2b HR's. to 8 n 9 hitters.
 

New member
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not going to win many plays when your starting pitcher in one is injured and yanked in the 1st and the 4th the second game.

that burned me up. 2 in one day.
 

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