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Okay, let's take a look.

1. Lookin At Lucky

Hell of a 2 year old campaign. A few too many races at 2 for my liking but certainly a quality animal. Baffert knows how to win this race. Has tactical speed and shouldn't mind the extra distance. Bullet work at CD. Ran once on dirt and seemed to like it. Didn't look all that great in SA Derby. Should go off as favorite.

2. Ice Box
Zito trained which is never a bad thing. Used Fla Derby as lone prep for this. Worked once before. Had a real nice work in the slop at CD. Also ran a 99 in Fla Derby. Should improve off that. A closer who comes from the clouds and needs a fast pace. He should get that.

3. Noble's Promise
Had problems at the start of the Ark Derby and didn't do much there. Has run and won at a # of different tracks. Couple of decent works at CD. Also has tactical speed. Ran a lot as a 2 yr old. This will be his 5th grade 1 race.

4. Super Saver
Lightly raced at 2, which I like. Just missed in Ark Derby. Speed figures seem to be going in right direction. One so-so work at CD. Has early speed.
 
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Thanks Judge, I'm Leaning Ice Box early on......But of course I might change my mind between Now & Saturday

BOL ! :toast:
 

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5. Line Of David
Winner of Ark Derby. Another speed horse. Ran a 98 to win that. Not sure the distance suits him. Has worked twice at CD, but nothing special.Will be one of the front runners.

6. Stately Victor
Finally woke up to win the BG. Ran a mediocre 94 to do it. Closer. Not crazy about his connections. Would have to make a big step forward. Ran once at CD and didn't do much.

7.American Lion
Also one that likes to run near the front. Went wire to wire in Ill Derby. His sf of 98 would certainly put him in the mix. Has rated before with mixed results.In the San Felipe was run into the ground by Sidney's Candy.

8. Deans Kitten
Coming into this one of Lanes End. Not a path that produces winners. 93 is his best sf. That won't get it done Saturday.He should move forward, but will it be enough? A lot of races as a two year old. Has tactical speed.
 

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9. Make Music For Me
Ran poorly in a slow Blue Grass. Has never run on dirt. One mediocre work at CD.Somewhere between tactical spped and a closer. Only one lifetime win.Not impressed.

10. Paddy O'Prado
Got beat in the stretch in the BG. Liftime best is a 93. Desormeaux up.Versatile running style. One very good work in slop at CD. Ran one race on dirt at CD and didn't do much. His one win came in a grade 3.

11. Devil May Care
The fillie. Ran a 100 last out which puts her with the best here.Average work over CD strip. Has tactical speed. Has run all her races over different tracks. Good connections. A good fillie, but still a fillie.

12.Conveyance
Speed, speed and more speed. Gonna try to go out on the lead.Has one 4 out of 5 races in his career. All on the front end. Got caught in the Sun. Has the look of a miler.could win if he got loose on the lead. Don't see that happening. Very nice speed figs but don't think this horse gets the 1 1/4.
 

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13. Jackson Bend
Anothe Zito horse. Ran a lot at 2. Has the look of a semi plodder except for the 100 he threw up. Tactical speed. Speed figures are moving in the right direction. Two impressive works at CD so seems to like the track. Never finished lower than 2nd. Interesting.

14.Mission Impazible
Won the LA derby with a 94. Tactical speed. Lightly raced at 2. Seems to be improving and may like the added distance. Ran a decent race at 2 at CD. One work there is so-so.

15. Discreetly Mine
Faded in the stretch in LA derby.Average work at CD. 94 is lifetime best. Don't think he will like the added distance. Like to be on or just off the lead.

16. Awesome Act
Ran a very nice Gotham.[98] Then had trouble in the Wood. Without the trouble I think he beats Jackson for 2nd. Two decent works at CD.Tactical speed. His breeding says he will like the 1 1/4 but hard to tell off his races.
 

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17. Dublin
Ran a 97 in Ark Derby and was closing at the wire.All of his races at 3 have been in the 90s. Hasn't won since Sept but does get in the money. If he moves forward off of last, should be with the top here. Somewhere between tactical and closer. Don't know much about his jock. Has run twice at CD and neither race was impressive. Neither were his 2 works. May not take to this track.

18. Backtalk
Plodder. Finished 14 back in Ill Derby.Speed figures are for shit. Does come from the back which may help here. Has done nothing to show he belongs in this race.

19. Homeboykris.
What is Dutrow thinking? Hasn't run since Feb 27. Just don't see it.

20. Sidney's Candy
Speed horse who is stuck on the outside. Not a good combo. He will go for the lead and probably get it. Ran 100 in the SA. Never run on dirt. Ok works at CD. I think he will get cooked in a speed duel. Another one who could go wire to wire if let loose on the lead.
 

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Okay. Let's throw some out. [Disclaimer. Please don't let me talk you off a horse.]

Dean's Kitten. I don't like kittens. So fuck him. Don't like so many races at 2. Don't like the prep route the trainer has taken. No races on dirt.

Make Music For Me. Lousy race last out. No dirt. bad speed figs.

Discreetly Mine. Don't like how he faded in LA Derby. Don't think he will get the distance.

Backtalk. Plodder. Nothing to indicate he can run on this level.

Homeboykris. Running off of a two month layoff. Dutrow is either a genius or an idiot. I am betting the later.
 

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Some overall impressions. A mediocre field that seems to be loaded with early speed. I don't see anyone getting loose on the lead. Could set up for the closers in the field. I'm thinking a speed figure in the low 100s will win this. Maybe around 104 or 105. Not all horses take to this strip. Also need to determine which are poised to run there best race.As well as who can get the added distance, Keep an eye on the weather and track conditions.
 

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The seas will part and a surge from the back of the pack. We will be singing this song Saturday night.

My pick-

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Thanks Judge for the breakdown. Looks like it's going to be a sloppy track on Saturday. Best of luck whoever you decide to play the first Saturday in may! :toast:
 

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I put $8 down on Jackson Bend at 35-1 back in February in the future wagering. Hope he's there.
 

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Okay. Now who is gonna get out early. Sidney's Candy will have no choice except to gun it from the outside and go for the lead. Conveyance will also be doing the same from the 12 hole as will Line Of David. Super Saver will also go out but will probably try to settle behind the front 3. I am expecting the half to go in 46 and change maybe 47. If it does I don't expect any of these to be able to carry that the distance. Sidney's Candy should hold on the longest. But coming from the outside and being bothered on the lead by the other speed should be enough to do him in. I am tossing the speed horses.
 

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This race has so much oppertunity. OK twenty horses.
I'm about to chose four horses and box them for a dollar
Twelve dollar bet. OK I have a dart board with twenty
numbers. Here goes. 3,6,9,13 G/L
 

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This race has so much oppertunity. OK twenty horses.
I'm about to chose four horses and box them for a dollar
Twelve dollar bet. OK I have a dart board with twenty
numbers. Here goes. 3,6,9,13 G/L

Lol, Brock. As good as system as any for a race like this.
 

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Sitting behind the 1st group at the half, I expect to see American Lion,Jackson Bend,Noble Promise, and Paddy O'Prado. Back from them, Devil May Care, Lookin At Lucky, Mission Impazible, Dublin. Then towards the back, Awesome Act, Stately Victor and Ice Box.
 

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At the far turn, Sidney's Candy is holding on with Super Saver but both are starting to tire. Lookin At Lucky,Devil May Care have moved up next to Jackson Bend and Noble's Promise who is also starting to struggle. Awesome Act is starting to move a little. Stately Victor has also started passing horses.
 

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