MLB 4/30 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2010

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w

ontVertAlignCellWithSp/> <w

ontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/> <w

ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:1; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-format

ther; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:0 0 0 0 0 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style> I do not like how lines have been moving against my model the last few days. It is a red flag questioning the accuracy of ones model. For the next few days, I will wait until the lineups come out before in order to try to get a better feel to why the sudden disconnect between the market and myself. May add later.
<o

> </o

>
Large
Red Sox -148
Normally you won’t find a team that is 4-18 being overvalued, but I think the market continues to underestimate how bad the Orioles bullpen is and the potential effect their prolong slump may have on their play. The Red Sox on the other hand have been quietly getting things back on track, winning seven of their last nine games. Lackey continues to be out of favor, but he should improve off of current form. Having the day off yesterday, the Red Sox overused and slumping bullpen got a much needed day off. I am not expecting Hernandez to have the same success (if you can call it that) as he did against the Red Sox last week. He struggled the second time through the lineup, and last time he faced the Red Sox in back to back starts, he was roughed up in the second outing. Being a flyball pitcher doesn’t bode well for him in this park. Backed by the worst pen in baseball certainly doesn’t either. The Red Sox know him well and have had success against him in the past. Expect the Red Sox to continue their hot streak and the Orioles to continue their losing propensity.
<o

> </o

>
Angels -108
The Angels are also playing some better baseball of late. The market seems a bit gunshy in pulling the trigger on Pineiro due to his last start, but I think differently. He should be able to counter the Tigers power at the plate with his sinkerball. He has had success against the Tigers and some of their hitters in the past, including Cabrera. The Tigers have been highly inconsistent at the plate and have struggled against solid pitchers. One should proceed with caution when backing Porcello. Something is not right with him. Whether he is hiding an injury, has a mechanical flaw, has something wrong upstairs, or a combination of things, time will tell. But until he shows some signs of improvement, he shouldn’t be priced where the market is pricing him. Opponents are hitting nearly .400 against him, and after having one of the better fastballs in baseball right now, it has quickly become a very hittable pitch. The Angels have the depth and talent at the plate to be advantageous at the plate. The Tigers do not have the ideal bullpen to back a big question mark.

indiana · Apr 30, 2010

Buff.........

thank you...........BOL with your action

indy

FairWarning · Apr 30, 2010

Well, the Red Sox are the lessor of two evils. The O's bullpen is brutal.

HacheMan · Apr 30, 2010

Good Luck tonight

Stabler12 · Apr 30, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG! You could have been describing Vazquez with that writeup on Porcello.

crazy · Apr 30, 2010

really like your posts

thx

fugazi · Apr 30, 2010

On the Angels with you, go Halos!

billsfan · Apr 30, 2010

GL tonight, hope you cash them....

Rip007 · Apr 30, 2010

Thanks...you forgot more about this sport than most people know

wilheim · Apr 30, 2010

buffettgambler

Thank you for your many valuable contributions to The Rx.com over the last five years..

Please feel free to contact me anytime should you require assistance at The Rx or with any of it's sponsors..

person19481950@yahoo.com

Best of luck and many thanks, wilheim...:toast: