is this a for sure money making chase system?

antifoil · May 1, 2010

why not play 4 or 5 teams every game on the rl. say nyy, tb, stl, and phi. they will at some point in the next 8 to 10 games win a game by more than 1.5 runs. so start with 1 unit and then keep increasing it by a unit each game until they win by 1.5 runs then start over so you win a unit on each chase. then you dont have to lay juice and general get a plus money situations.

is there something i am missing in how this will not 100 percent make money? the only way would be if this 4 teams never win a game by more than 1 run for the rest of the season.

antifoil · May 1, 2010

for that matter why could you do this in basketball too. pick a couple of nba teams and always pick the over. at some point they will hit the over. so on the first game bet one unit and it loses on the next game bet 2.1 units, it loses then the next game bet 3.2 units.

natenewton · May 1, 2010

yes...no possible way to lose...starting this saturday!!!! lets shut the strip down!!!! thx bro

Preussen · May 1, 2010

antifoil said:
... so on the first game bet one unit and it loses on the next game bet 2.1 units, it loses then the next game bet 3.2 units.

If you bet this way and win in the third game you'd have won 3 units and lost 3.3 for a net loss of 0.3 units. You'd have to increase the bets more.

But believe me, this is not a good way to bet. This system is called Martingale and it just does not work. For a long time you will win small amounts but sooner or later you will hit a losing streak and then will lose everything.
People often underestimate how quickly the bet sizes increase. To win ca. one unit per series during a losing streak you'd have to bet in turn 1.1, 2.3, 4.8, 10.1, 21.2, 44.5, 93.5 u ...
That means after seven consecutive losses you'd have already lost 177.5 units and would have to risk 196.4 units for the next bet. Will your starting bankroll be big enough for that?
And while seven consecutive losses semm (and are) unlikely, it's not impossible. Assuming the chance for Under to hit is 50% in each game then the chance for seven consecutive Unders is about 0.8 percent. That means on average you can expect a 7-game losing streak every 125 bets.

YouMyBoy · May 1, 2010

What if in rouletee we increass our bet evertime and just bet Black everytime, it has to hit like $49% of the time right? Ya it's the same thing. In the short run, you will actually probably win, but vegas isn't dumb. There's no way these plays are profitable overall, sry.

Grind-It-Out · May 1, 2010

keep increasing it by a unit each game until they win by 1.5 runs then start over so you win a unit on each chase

If it worked that way, then YES, you would have the best system of all time.

Even if a team was guaranteed to win by more than 1.5 every 8th game, as you say above, that would still lead to you betting 128 units (2 ^ 7) on that 8th game. Do you have that many units in your bankroll?

Granted, it usually won't go that far, but it WILL sometimes. You'll learn to realize that even 60% players suffer 10 game losing streaks every couple of years.

Grind-It-Out · May 1, 2010

That's not to say that the martingale system can't be profitable though. It can be. It comes down to the base advantage that either you or the house possesses. If you are a 55% player, you will still make money on average playing martingale.

I'd recommend looking into Kelly, however, if you are a +EV player anyway.

Preussen · May 1, 2010

Grind-It-Out said:
That's not to say that the martingale system can't be profitable though. It can be. It comes down to the base advantage that either you or the house possesses. If you are a 55% player, you will still make money on average playing martingale.
...

Correct, but in that case it's not the system that is profitable but the capping. In the long run, straight bets and Martingale will have the same expected result, but the swings will be a lot different. Martingale will have very few downswings but sooner or later they will come and then you might quickly go broke if you don't stop the chase early enough and eat the losses.

Maris9 · May 1, 2010

Most places will limit the amount you can bet on a game.
Thus, you lose 4-5 in a row, you're probably reaching the max they will allow you to wager.

HookEmHorns · May 1, 2010

You gotta have a big bank to do this

Ex: Braves won yesterday, but they lost the previous 9 games in a row

Maris9 · May 1, 2010

HookEmHorns said:
You gotta have a big bank to do this

Ex: Braves won yesterday, but they lost the previous 9 games in a row

It also doesn't matter how big your bankroll is at times. You cannot wager unlimited amounts of money. Probably for this very reason.
Obviously no gambler is going to go a month, a year, five years without winning a wager. So yes, if you had an unlimited bankroll AND you were allowed to bet an unlimited amount of money, this (and most) systems would work. Unfortunately, neither is possible.