MLB 5/1 Plays

buffettgambler · May 1, 2010

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Upper Medium
DBacks -108
Here is a classic market overreaction to be willing to back a pitcher who has struggled a lot in recent years pitching well in the short term. So what has changed with Silva this year that has warranted such an improvement in numbers? In the past, Silva was one of the most vulnerable pitchers in baseball against left handed hitters. This year? He has been the most dominant. Sustainable? Despite a structural change in pitching style against left handed hitters, Silva in the long term should be vulnerable against them. He faces a couple really hot ones today that may put him in his place. Since Silva is going with the changeup more this season, he is more prone to the flyball. He is no longer that major groundball pitcher he once was. This does not bode well for his chances in today’s game, as the ball should be traveling well, while the Diamondbacks have the power to take advantage. Haren is on the cheap right now as his surface numbers don’t suggest dominance. But his strikeout rate is up, his line drive rate is down, and his FIP is much better than his ERA. Back luck has put a toll on his numbers. He has the ability to go deep into games and avoid the DBacks suspect bullpen. Back career numbers against the Cubs lacks credence. He has pitched just twice against them in the last two years- both quality starts.

GordonGekko · May 1, 2010

Good luck Buffett,

I'm back on the Sox again, although they are leaving a tribe of runners on the bases. Dice K has looked solid coming from the minor leagues and Bergesen hasn't looked good all season. I'll be on a couple others as well. Waiting for lineups like yourself.

GEKKO

GordonGekko · May 1, 2010

Just put Large play on Angels..

basilesox · May 1, 2010

I agree with you here completely BG, Silva is garbage and will get rocked eventually. I think he is benefiting here from a change in leagues and facing guys who have not seen him much. Thanks for the great analysis as always.

Stabler12 · May 1, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG.

Rip007 · May 1, 2010

Best .......

Stabler12 · May 1, 2010

Two questions when you have a chance, BG. What is FIP (sorry if I missed an explanation earlier in the year, I don't know what some of the pitching stats you use mean) and how long before first pitch do lineups typically come out? I like to play all your games, and would like to narrow down the time I need to check in. Thanks.

buffettgambler · May 1, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Two questions when you have a chance, BG. What is FIP (sorry if I missed an explanation earlier in the year, I don't know what some of the pitching stats you use mean) and how long before first pitch do lineups typically come out? I like to play all your games, and would like to narrow down the time I need to check in. Thanks.

Thanks guys.

Munson,
Here is the definition of FIP:
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. . FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.

Here is the formula:
(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number.

Basically I look for disparities between FIP and ERA to gauge sustainability of current form.

Lineups come out from anywhere to a couple hours before the game to 20 minutes. Typically about 45 minutes prior to game time.

Stabler12 · May 1, 2010

Thanks very much for the info. Sounds like a good idea to just keep popping in from time to time for the best chance of catching the plays. The FIP seems to be an indicator of what happened when the batter did NOT put a ball in play during the at bat, if I understand it correctly. GL on all your action today, Upton just gave us a 2-run lead at Wrigley, and I'll check back around 4:30.:toast:

buffettgambler · May 1, 2010

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Upper Medium
Giants -144
Not sure why, but I keep on spotting value on the Giatns when Lincecum and Cain are pitching. Cain has had a history of flying under the radar. With the way Lincecum and Zito have been pitching, it appears to be the case yet again right now. But he is quietly pitching well, putting forth a quality start in all four of his starts thus far. He hasn’t had any problems with the Rockies in the past, and being a flyball pitcher, he is more valuable pitching at home where he can use the spacious outfield to his advantage. I like the lineup the Giants are putting forth in this one. They have spaced out some of their hotter hitters, and their top of the lineup has some hitters that have a lot of upside off of current form. Rogers is a relative unkown. He has a couple of plus pitches and upside potential. But his lack of control and high walk propensity should be of a concern. Expect the Giants veteran lineup to take advantage of this and force him to throw strikes. He will also be on a strict pitch count. Both variables do not bode well for the Rockies avoiding their below average front end of their bullpen.

buffettgambler · May 1, 2010

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Upper Medium
Indians -107
The Twins are becoming really pricey. I am not sold on Manship. He did not impress me at the big league level last year, as he appeared really hittable and did not show a lot of command. He has a subpar fastball, and a curveball that lacks ideal consistency. He looked bad in spring training. In other words, he is not starting by choice. The Twins front end of the bullpen can be gotten too as well. This is an ideal spot for an Indians lineup to get things back on track. The Twins are without Mauer. He has a huge value over replacement player that the market doesn’t appear to be fully factoring in. Masterson may be the best pitcher on the Indians, and has shown a propensity to pitch much better at home. His last couple of starts is a bit concerning, but his FIP/ERA disparity suggests it was more than just bad pitching. I think he has a decent chance to rebound tonight.

Stabler12 · May 1, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG.

TheHungerForMore · May 1, 2010

What's your thoughts about the Mets tomorrow? And who is this for the Rockies?

Stabler12 · May 1, 2010

Wow, Cleveland is not going to score after loading the bases w/ no one out in the 11th.

hno:

Stabler12 · May 1, 2010

Jinx worked, 2-out single by Asdrubal Cabrera wins it. (<)<Thanks BG, will probably miss tomorrow's card, GL on it.:toast:

buffettgambler · May 1, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Jinx worked, 2-out single by Asdrubal Cabrera wins it. (<)<Thanks BG, will probably miss tomorrow's card, GL on it.:toast:

Thanks Munson for the jinx. I will take all the help I can get right now. One game I will be on is the Mets tomorrow.

Stabler12 · May 1, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Thanks Munson for the jinx. I will take all the help I can get right now. One game I will be on is the Mets tomorrow.

You're welcome. My work begins after the games start, BG.:lolBIG:

Thanks for the early tip, I'll grab the Mets right away and check in when I get back from the course.

buffettgambler · May 1, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
What's your thoughts about the Mets tomorrow? And who is this for the Rockies?

I like the Mets tomorrow. There has not been a game in which Moyer has started where he has not been overvalued in my opinion.

I have read some mixed reviews on Chacin. He has a two plus pitches, fastball and changeup, and the change of pace can be dominant at times. His changeup is really effective against left handed bats (which is an asset that should be magnified against the Giants). But much like Rogers, he has control problems. I think in a couple years he will be a solid pitcher, but not until he works on his breaking ball. He should be valued with caution.

NyMets609 · May 2, 2010

bg, can I get your thoughts on the Brewers tomorrow? Wolf has very quietly settled in very nicely his last 2 starts and I am not a believer in Garland at all anymore....think his first couple starts have been a mirage. Only thing that worries me here is Milwaukee has not been getting timely hitting at all lately.

TheHungerForMore · May 2, 2010

buffettgambler said:
I like the Mets tomorrow. There has not been a game in which Moyer has started where he has not been overvalued in my opinion.

I have read some mixed reviews on Chacin. He has a two plus pitches, fastball and changeup, and the change of pace can be dominant at times. His changeup is really effective against left handed bats (which is an asset that should be magnified against the Giants). But much like Rogers, he has control problems. I think in a couple years he will be a solid pitcher, but not until he works on his breaking ball. He should be valued with caution.

Thank you.