Runlittleman 3 game Runline chase system

runlittleman · May 1, 2010

I moved this from the previous thread because i forgot to include the money management system, which makes it a 3 game chase system, if it loses the third game of the chase then it will be considered a loss. (all of the previous information is here, but to reference the other thread see:http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=770359)

I found this system on the internet and wanted a place to track it (its not mine). It seems easy to follow and post so i'm curious how it does through the course of the year (it says not to start until may, which is why i've waited this long). All system plays will be posted in this thread.

The system says that you should bet the runline on the team that is the highest moneyline favorite of the day. (i'll use the opening lines that i find on SBR odds to determine the favorite of the day).

All plays are risking one unit.

The system has the following rules.
1. One play a day
2. No april bets
3. No runline wagers over -175
4. No chases (if the team you bet on loses do not bet on them again in that series).
5. in the event of ties on the moneyline, follow these tie breakers
a. Best odds on Run Line
b. Home team
c. Starting pitcher
d. coin flip
6. must be more than three games on the day.

5/1 Play
[A] Risking 1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-120) at Pinnacle

runlittleman · May 1, 2010

Looks like the A bet lost tonight, it will be a B bet tomorrow.

System Results (by chase bet)
[A] 0-1
0-0
[C] 0-0

Total System Tracking
0-0 (This 3 game chase is still pending, I will record the result when it becomes a loss or a win for the system)

runlittleman · May 1, 2010

5/2 System Play
Risking 2 Units on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-110 at Bookmaker)

YouMyBoy · May 1, 2010

interesting I guess, systems so basic I feel like it's not likely to make $, but who knows. If the favorites hold strong I guess you are fine.

YouMyBoy · May 1, 2010

Also, are you including juice you lost from game 1 in your game 2 chase? If not going 1-1 would actually lose $

runlittleman · May 2, 2010

I plan on factoring in the juice as much as possible according to the system (which doesn't mention the juice), as of now it looks like it wont affect it until the C bet (the author of the system says the Units should go 1, 2, 4) but if it starts affecting the B bet then i'll have to adjust accordingly.

the system seems so simple, but we'll see how it works out throughout a season. The author of the system claims the following records after the last four years

2006: 76-6 (92.6%) with an ROI of 104%
2007: 82-5 (94.2%) with an ROI of 438%
2008: 88-7 (92.6%) with an ROI of 304%
2009: 84-8 (91.3%) with an ROI of 26%

Last year looks like it was a down year for the system and we'll see if that marks the end of the system's potential or not.

runlittleman · May 2, 2010

Updated Record 5/2

St. Louis came through on the bet for 1.82 units (minus the 1 unit for the loss on the A bet and we are up .82 units).

System Results (by chase bet)
[A] 0-1
1-0
[C] 0-0

Total System Tracking
1-0 for .82 units

runlittleman · May 2, 2010

5/3 System Play

Tomorrows play (5/3) is:
[A] Risking 1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 (-145) at Bookmaker

Best of luck tomorrow

runlittleman · May 3, 2010

The Yankees came through for us on the [A] bet for .69 units

System Results (by chase bet)
[A] 1-1
1-0
[C] 0-0

Total System Tracking
2-0 for +1.51 units

runlittleman · May 4, 2010

5/4 System play

Tomorrows play (5/4) is:
[A] Risking 1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 (-120) at Bookmaker

As always best of luck tomorrow

runlittleman · May 4, 2010

5/4 updated record

The Yankees came through again for us on the [A] bet netting .83 units on this chase. <><>

System Results (by chase bet)
[A] 2-1
1-0
[C] 0-0

Total System Tracking
3-0 for +2.34 units

runlittleman · May 4, 2010

5/5 System Play

Looks like we are on the Yankees again.... lets see if they keep it up

Tomorrows play (5/5) is:
[A] Risking 1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 (-140) at Bookmaker

As always, best of luck tomorrow.
:smoking:

seanjohn007 · May 4, 2010

i do actually know this system. it tends to be profitable but once in a while you will go through a cold streak. when i first herd about it they had it as a 5 games chase, but there was a 6 day losing streak which wiped out all of the profits. interested in seeing how the 3 game chase works out for you, good luck.

but i am a little curious as to why your not trying to win 1 unit on your A bet, instead of risking 1

seanjohn007 · May 4, 2010

wow, dude are your lines off?? bookmaker is never that far off and the yankees are at +110 tomorrow at 5diems

runlittleman · May 6, 2010

seanjohn007 said:
i do actually know this system. it tends to be profitable but once in a while you will go through a cold streak. when i first herd about it they had it as a 5 games chase, but there was a 6 day losing streak which wiped out all of the profits. interested in seeing how the 3 game chase works out for you, good luck.

but i am a little curious as to why your not trying to win 1 unit on your A bet, instead of risking 1

I found it over the summer and was curious about testing it and figured this would be the best place, hopefully the 3 game chase limits the losses that the 4-6 stretch would lose (but we'll see). I'm only going with the risking 1 unit since thats what the system calls for (presumably so that the 2 and 4 units B and C bets can cover the previous bets before they get too high on those bets).

runlittleman · May 6, 2010

seanjohn007 said:
wow, dude are your lines off?? bookmaker is never that far off and the yankees are at +110 tomorrow at 5diems

Thats the line i got on bookmaker overnight (i see that it changed drastically today, but since thats the line I got I am going to stick with it). Knowing people could get a better line on it is always better than posting a line that no one could get anywhere close to some I'm willing to accept the line that I got. (just glad it worked out).

shdw01 · May 6, 2010

this looks very fun!

do you have prior year stats based on A/B/C?

I'd be curious to see records if just betting B and C (1 and 2 units respectively)

runlittleman · May 6, 2010

5/5 System Results

The Yankees came through yet again for us on the [A] bet netting +.71 units on this chase.

System Results (by chase bet)
[A] 3-1
1-0
[C] 0-0

Total System Tracking
4-0 for +3.05 units

runlittleman · May 6, 2010

shdw01 said:
this looks very fun!

do you have prior year stats based on A/B/C?

I'd be curious to see records if just betting B and C (1 and 2 units respectively)

I haven't back tested it at all. Like I said I found it online and the author claimed very positive results so I was curious to see what the results would be if they were documented for a season.:smoker2:

runlittleman · May 6, 2010

5/6 System Play

Looks like we are on the Twins tonight as we hope to continue our streak

Tomorrows play (5/6) is:
[A] Risking 1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-120) at Bookmaker

As always, best of luck tomorrow.