MLB 5/2 Plays

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Large
A’s +155
The market wants nothing to do with Sheets. They made it clear from his first start of the season. The A’s have won just one game in which he has started in. This has added fuel to the fire of the market being turned off by him. However, he has allowed more than three runs in just one of his starts this season. He is coming off of his worst start in five years. He has been known to be a solid bounce back starter in the past. Until he puts forth another bad outing , I think the market is being overly cautious about him not being recouped from his elbow surgery. He is backed by a solid and deep bullpen which should allow a plug to be pulled early if he is showing signs of replicating last weeks start. The market has price Marcum as a really solid pitcher right out of the gates. So far they have been correct with their pricing. I am still reluctant to be as bullish as the market is on him. His fastball is weak, and he has been overly dependent on opposing hitters to swing out of the zone against him. Facing aggressive lineups in almost all of his starts has benefited him. This will not be the case today. The Blue Jays have won just 3 of their last nine games. Priced too high in this one.
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Upper Medium
Indians +145
Liriano is priced for perfection. So far he has pitched that way and has shown no signs of deviating form current form. But when oddsmakers and the market becomes euphoric on a pitcher, I tend to look the other way. This is his first start facing a lineup that has already seen the new and improved Liriano. See how that plays out. Huff is a decent home dog to back. He only allowed three hits to the Twins in his first start against them this year. The Twins will once again be without Mauer. For a team that is built to win the close game, his absence is material. The Indians have a winning record against southpaws this year. They have also played only one team with a losing record this season, and their true worth has been masked a bit.
 

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Best....they are killing it...in Hockey over in that other forum.....especially totals
 

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Jul 8, 2009
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I got these both in. I already had Indians since yesterday. Going to keep check 10 minutes before the games. Thanks
 

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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> Will add as Lineups come out
(Looks like the market outsmarted me with Sheets. His velocity is fine, but everything is right down the middle and his curveball is a floater).
<o:p> </o:p>
Upper Medium
Rangers +106
Wilson is pitching too well to be an underdog when backed by a better lineup and bullpen. Both he and Fister are overachieving right now, but he has more sustainability behind his recent form. His groundball rate is as impressive as it gets, and he is dominating left handed hitters. This does not bode well for a Mariners lineup that lacks talent from the right side. He is keeping velocity down and conversing his pitches, which allows him to avoid the front end of the pen (despite being his first time as a starter in the big leagues). Until he shows signs of regression, I have no problem backing him at a decent price. Fister has also pitched well. But all his starts being against the Orioles, A’s and White Sox leaves a lot of question marks on the table. This will be his toughest test to date. This is a bad matchup for him. His only plus pitch is a fastball, and the Rangers are a good fastball hitting team. He is also more vulnerable against teams that have talent from the left side.
 

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got to respectfully disagree on your Rangers analysis when you say that this is Fisters toughest test to date. Does Texas even have a .300 hitter? do they hit for power? Do they draw walks? White Sox and Orioles (as bad as they are) are a more feared line up.... I think Konerko has around as many homers as the whole Texas team and give me A. Jones, Markakis, Wigginton, Tejada, Reimold, Wieters over Texas any day of the week.

GL this season... like your write ups put think your overvaluing Texas offense.
 

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Mets -127
In my opinion, the Phillies have been the most overvalued team in baseball out of the gates. Sooner or later, their average 15 cent premium per game will take a toll on their ROI. Moyer has been their worst and most overvalued pitcher. He has had just one start this season where he was not smacked around. He is prone to the flyball and the long ball. Pitching in a bandbox in Philly will not do him any favors. Right handed hitters have been having much better success against him this year. The Mets will take advantage of this, but having every single one of their hitters bat from the right side. Backed by a subpar bullpen should allow the Mets to face hittable pitchers throughout this game. Santana is the ideal pitcher you want facing this hot Phillies lineup. He seems to be in a zone right now, having allowed just one run in his last three starts. The Phillies are stacked from the left side. Santana is hard for left handed hitters to hit. He has had no problem against the Phillies in the past. He has dominated Utley, Worth and Victorino. He has allowed just one home all season, which is nice when having to face Philly in their hitter friendly park.
 

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