MLB 5/4 Plays

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Large
Braves -110
Oddsmakers were way off on this one. The market has corrected the line by 17%. Although I did not profit as much as I would have liked during the initial stages of the Braves uptick, I think there is still some room to back them at their current market price. The Braves were plagued early in the season with bad luck, bad situational hitting, and lack of confidence. They seemed to have corrected all three during their last series. What’s left is a solid lineup and solid pitching. Hernandez is pitching way over his head. Oddsmakers seem oblivious to this notion. The Braves are very familiar with him and have had success against him in the past. They have the veterans to be fall for his tactics and the left handed bats to give him problems. Kawakami is far from the best Braves pitcher, but as long as he continues to underachieve, he may be one of the more undervalued ones. The Braves have the depth in their bullpen to hedge against his risks. He matches up better against the Nats lineup better than other lineups he has faced thus far.
Upper Medium
Red Sox -169
The market has bid down the Red Sox price over 2% off the Pinny open, despite showcasing their bats coming alive last night after a prolong slump. Whether that was a one day wonder or a sign of things to come is yet to be seen. But at this price, they appear to have some decent value. After starting off the season with three subpar outings, Lester has gone back to back games without allowing a run. His strikeout rate and batting average against are materially higher in this last two starts compared to his career averages. It appears his stuff is working right now. This bodes well for the Red Sox, as he gives them a good chance to avoid a struggling underbelly of the Red Sox bullpen. Past struggles against the Angels lack sustainability, as they have not seen him in two years. Santana is a dangerous pitcher to back on the road. In his career, he has been a far less efficient pitcher away from home. The Red Sox have had past success against him, while his FIP suggests his surface numbers are a bit better than his true pitching production so far this year. The Angels bullpen is also struggling.
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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> Pirates +143
Oddsmakers have the real propensity to inflate Cubs lines when they are going strong, as they know they have there is a deep backing for them on an uptick. The market has done a decent job telling the oddsmakers they are going a bit too far with their inflation by bidding them down 7 plus percent, but there is still value on the table in my opinion. Maholm has quietly been a really solid pitcher in his career during his home outings. He seems to have reached a real comfort level in his home park, a tendency whose sustainability is more probable with finesse pitchers like he. Dempster has looked solid thus far, but I think his expectations now surpass his true worth. The quality of opponent has been lacking in his starts as well. Past struggles against the Pirates makes him a dangerous road favorite. Being a sub par pitcher against left handed hitters makes him vulnerable against a lineup that will send five to the plate. Homefield advantage is magnified in this series.


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Large
Astros -109
The bearish sentiment on the Astros appears to be at a yearly high, and in my opinion, creating some +EV plays on them. Oswalt has pitched better than I have predicted so far this season, and has always been a tough guy to beat at home. He is also a pitcher that has had consistent dominance against particular teams, one of them being the Diamondbacks. With a 9-1 career record and 1.96 ERA, Oswalt has actually gotten progressively better against them, as he pitched 14 innings against this lineup last year and allowed just one run. The Astros already subpar bullpen took a hit last night, losing two of their better arms. This will hurt them long term, but Oswalt gives the team their best chance of not allowing this deficiency to come to fruition. The market is really starting to like Kennedy, but he simply has not shown any consistency so far. He struggled with two bad outings to start the season, then followed it up with two dominating performances. He is coming off another bad outing last week. He has actually been much easier for right handed hitters to hit in his career, which should benefit the Astros lineup.
 

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I need to start posting in your thread for good luck. We were killing large plays then hit rough week and some bad breaks.
 

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Wish we could get Oswalt a run or two.

Yeah, really. Not much run support for your teams today, Buffett.

I know you don't do totals, but I imagine your simulations/model has some sort of projected score. I may be missing something but Boston/LA under 10 (starting to move some) and Det/Min under 10 (remaining solid) are two of the best total plays of the season according to my figures. You have any thoughts at all?
 

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Yeah, really. Not much run support for your teams today, Buffett.

I know you don't do totals, but I imagine your simulations/model has some sort of projected score. I may be missing something but Boston/LA under 10 (starting to move some) and Det/Min under 10 (remaining solid) are two of the best total plays of the season according to my figures. You have any thoughts at all?
4d6cb9b2fd51.gif
 

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Hey Irish, you seem to have good knowledge of sports, how come you don't post plays?

Buffett you run support sucked.....you had the right games and analysis.
 

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