MLB 5/5 Plays

buffettgambler · May 5, 2010

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Upper Medium
Reds -118
The Mets are putting out a really inferior lineup and the market has yet to respond to this news. Cora, Mathews, and Blanco materially downgrade the worth of the Mets team. They are also replacing two of the hotter hitters going for them right now. I am not sold on Niese. His WHIP is dangerously high and indicates a disconnect with his runs allowed so far. He is prone to control issues, and HPU Holbrook does not compliment this deficiency. He has been getting roughed up by right handed bats, and the Reds are throwing some plus hitters at him from that side of the plate. Good time to back Cueto when he is out of favor. He has not pitched as poorly as his ERA would indicate, and is coming off his best outing so far against a potent Cardinals lineup. Past struggles against the Mets lack fundamental sustainability. He is backed by a solid bullpen. Mets have won just 4 of 11 away from their home park.

TheHungerForMore · May 5, 2010

I'm glad they're a few afternoon games since my back is stiff and hurting right now for some reason, can't work out or play ball at the moment.

Are you likely to have a play on the Bal/NYy game?

Good luck.

buffettgambler · May 5, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
I'm glad they're a few afternoon games since my back is stiff and hurting right now for some reason, can't work out or play ball at the moment.

Are you likely to have a play on the Bal/NYy game?

Good luck.

Really small play on the O's.

daviddaman2 · May 5, 2010

Nice write up, I kind of disagree on Niese though i think he's turning into a pretty nice pitcher and his bb/k ratio (12 BB, 25 K's) show his control isn't too big of an issue lately. I'll likely play the mets. GL though.

Stabler12 · May 5, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG.

Rip007 · May 5, 2010

Good luck today

Stabler12 · May 5, 2010

BG, can I ask what an acceptable ratio would be for a WHIP/ERA? I often wonder myself how a guy's record translates, and being a rotisserie player for several years, WHIP is a stat I have a good handle on. I always figure a WHIP of 1.3 or lower is very good for a starter, and would like to know how you equate WHIP to ERA? I hope I explained the question properly, thanks.

buffettgambler · May 5, 2010

Stabler12 said:
BG, can I ask what an acceptable ratio would be for a WHIP/ERA? I often wonder myself how a guy's record translates, and being a rotisserie player for several years, WHIP is a stat I have a good handle on. I always figure a WHIP of 1.3 or lower is very good for a starter, and would like to know how you equate WHIP to ERA? I hope I explained the question properly, thanks.

Good question. The average WHIP over the last three years is about 1.39, while the average ERA is about 4.35. But looking for disconnects between these two numbers superficially will probably not get you anywhere. You need to incorporate secondary numbers, mainly GB/FB rates. Groundball pitchers have the propensity to get away with a higher WHIP (higher double play rate and lower extra base hit rate, ect) than flyball pitchers. Some pitchers pitch better out the stretch than others as well. Higher strikeout rates allow for higher Whips as well. What I look for is disconnects in WHIP and ERA thats counter intuitive to a pitchers historical norm, a pitchers fundamental pitching style, and how a high WHIP matches with the opponents lineup.

John Niese has one of the largest unsustainable disconnects going right now. Somthing has to give. Either he starts allowing less baseruners, or his ERA will materially go higher. So far today, it looks like more of the same thought. So far he has allowed nine hits in just four innings, yet has allowed just 2 runs. If the market continues to incorporate his low ERA in his pricing going forward though, I will more than likely continue to find value going against him.

Stabler12 · May 5, 2010

Wow, it sounds like I need you to interpret those stats, BG. @)

Those averages are helpful, but I do understand why you say that flyball pitchers are more prone to extra base hits, etc. Bottom line, everything you said makes sense to me, and I thank you for the knowledge.:toast:

Stabler12 · May 5, 2010

Wasn't easy but we got the Reds in. Congrats, BG, I'll check back later.:toast:

buffettgambler · May 5, 2010

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Large
Braves -162
The Braves have given me a real headache so far this year and a dent in my bankroll. They look much better inside my model than on the field. But sooner than later, their talent will showcase on the field. One person that has not been underachieving on their team has been Hanson. He is the real deal and a model for consistency, as he has not allowed more than two runs in any one of his starts this season. He also seems to be getting progressively better and dominated the Nationals last season. Oddsmakers may be getting a little to brave with Atilano after he put together a couple solid starts. The market made it clear that they valued him too high. I am not sold on him or his underwhelming arsenal of pitches. Bullpen edge to the Braves. Cabrera out for the Braves and Willingham out for the Nats both favor the Braves.
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Cardinals -118
Despite being a huge net seller on the Phillies this year, this line surprises me a bit, as it is not often that you get a bargain price on the Cardinals. This holds especially true when they have a hot pitcher on the mound and are facing a struggling one. But that is the case, as the Phillies remain the most overvalued team in baseball so far this season. They have won just six of 11 at home, and now with Ruiz out, their backend of their order is a mess. Penny looks new and improved. He hasn’t allowed a home run all season, and Duncan seems to be working his magic on him much like he did with Pineiro last year. His groundball rate has materially improved and his new splitter has become a dominant out pitch. Against a powerful lineup and a small park, this newfound asset should come in handy. Kendrick is a liability on the mound right now. He has had one good start in five, and has allowed five home runs in the last two games. He has problems the second time around the lineup, and a lineup as deep as the Cardinals should do damage on him. Bullpen edge to the Cards.
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Upper Medium
Pirates +146
Going right back on the Pirates. Morton is a huge risk, but a risk I think you are getting well compensate for. He has a lot of upside off market sentiment, and a much safer play as a home underdog. His K/BB rate is above league average, show their seems to be a structural problem that can be fixed. Lilly’s last start should also be a concern. He was roughed up by a lineup he matched up well against, and allowed three home runs. He is just getting into pitching form, and until he can piece together a couple solid outings in a row, I would proceed with caution at this price. Homefield advantage is magnified in this series.

Stabler12 · May 5, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. I feel the same way about Atlanta, and I hope they turn it around for us. I'm surprised you aren't on Boston, I like Lackey to turn it up a notch against his former team.

buffettgambler · May 5, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Thanks and GL, BG. I feel the same way about Atlanta, and I hope they turn it around for us. I'm surprised you aren't on Boston, I like Lackey to turn it up a notch against his former team.

Thanks Munson. A bit surprised as well since I found the cheap yesterday and have found value on Lackey in previous starts. But the market may be a bit too bearish on Pineiro to go against him right on. I also downgrade the Sox 8 cents (to -155) once the lineup card came out. BOL.

Stabler12 · May 5, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Thanks Munson. A bit surprised as well since I found the cheap yesterday and have found value on Lackey in previous starts. But the market may be a bit too bearish on Pineiro to go against him right on. I also downgrade the Sox 8 cents (to -155) once the lineup card came out. BOL.

Fair enough, I got them -158 this morning and really feel that LA just doesn't have it on this road trip. Continued success.:toast:

NyMets609 · May 5, 2010

the Braves are driving me absolutely insane bg, letting freaking light hitting Ian Desmond go yard 2 nights in a row.

NyMets609 · May 5, 2010

also Atilano is all over the place, can't find the strike zone and the Braves are doing absolutely nothing with it, I know they got a 2 run HR but they should have more.

they are just really horrible right now.

NyMets609 · May 5, 2010

now Nyjer Morgan is fucking Miguel Cabrera, i'm gonna throw up.

NyMets609 · May 5, 2010

I can not believe this Braves staff getting burned by Bernandina and Desmond. just sickening.

Stabler12 · May 5, 2010

I think it boils down to the Nats being better than expected and the Braves being not as strong as they looked coming out of spring training. Give Hanson 6 runs and you figure it's gonna be a laugher most nights. Go figure.

Stabler12 · May 5, 2010

Better to have to sweat out a tough win than get all worked up over a difficult loss. Great day, thanks BG. Gonna miss most of the action tomorrow on golf day, feels good to go in to getaway day with a solid card.