All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.01 over St. Louis http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Note the 1:05 PM EST start. After pitching and dominating for years in the AL, Roy Halliday is making minced meat out of these NL squads. His career ERA before this season started was 3.38 and even in that hitter’s paradise in Philadelphia he’s shattering that this season. The AL is simply a much more talented league and Halliday is making these NL hitters look like minor-leaguers. His ERA this season is 1.47 in six starts. At home his ERA is 1.06. He’s walked four batters in 49 frames while striking out 39. So what’s that genius, Tony LaRussa, going to do today? Insert the pitcher into the seventh spot in the batting order? The Cards have scored one run over the last two games here. They were shutout yesterday by Kyle Kendricks. Yeah, they’re 18-10 and they’re going to win that division going away. However, it’s not because they’re a great team. They’re just the best team in the weakest division in baseball, the NL Central. The Cards can finish under .500 and win that division. You want to know what’s incredible….Kyle Loshe is making more money than Tim Hudson. Lohse will earn 9.1M this season while Hudson will earn 9M. Lohse is a career stiff that has seen his FO/GB ratio soar this season in favor of the fly-out. It stands at 39 groundouts to 60 fly-outs right now and the fact that nobody has gone yard on him yet this season is a minor miracle. Lohse has an 11.00 ERA on the road in two starts and when he pitched in a similar park in Arizona he didn’t make it to the fourth inning. Lohse’s three decent starts this season have all come at pitcher-friendly Busch and they came against the feeble hitting Astros, Braves and Reds. This looks like a mismatch on paper and when they play it out, chances are it will end that way too. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>WASHINGTON +1.25 over Atlantahttp://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Tim Hudson has been rock solid in five starts this year with an ERA of 2.87 but a close look reveals that he really hasn’t pitched as good as that ERA suggests, not even close. First off, Hudson has pitched at San Diego, San Fran and St. Louis and those three parks can make anyone look good. He’s also faced the Astros at home and that team could’ve made Ernie Harwell look good three days ago. Fact is, Hudson has walked 12 and struck out 12 in 31 innings and that’s a sign of sure trouble. A pitcher’s Base Performance Value or BPV (this formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. Roy Halliday’s BPV is 139. Tim Hudson’s BPV is 11 after five starts. Scott Olsen’s BPV is 60. So, when you read between the lines, Hudson cannot sustain that low ERA much longer. He’s been hit hard but it just does not show yet and he’ll face a very dangerous offense here. The Braves are 1-3 on the road vs southpaws and will face another one here. Olsen has tossed 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts against the Dodgers and Marlins. He’s capable again of doing well here but this choice is more about taking back a tag against Hudson on the road and win or lose here, the true value is on the Nats. Play: Washington +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Chicago –1½ +1.10 over PITTSBURGH http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>There are some concerns about Randy Wells and some suggest he’s a one-year wonder but the former catcher-turned-pitcher could really be a diamond in the rough. Wells recorded his fourth consecutive strong performance in five starts to open the season Friday with an eight-strikeout, no-walk outing against the D-Backs. His control has been pinpoint thus far with just five walks while striking out 27 in 31 frames. His road ERA is 1.42 and the Cubbies almost always supply him with strong run support. The real kicker here is that the Cubbies will see Brian Burres. In 15 innings thus far, Burres has given up 18 hits and walked 11 batters and is constantly behind in the count. In a relief appearance against the Astros two weeks ago he was tagged for three hits and two runs in 1.2 innings and he also walked three batters. Burres produced ERA's of near six in 2007 and 2008 (the last two seasons when he saw significant major league action), so you cannot write his poor start off to a small sample size. The only reason he’s starting is because the Pirates have nobody else to fill in and after losing the first two games of this series, one has to expect Sweet Lou and the rest of the team to be in a foul mood. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>San Francisco +1.17 over FLORIDAhttp://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>I’m not really sure why Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins are favored over Matt Cain and the Giants but whatever the reason, the fact is, Cain is one of the best pitchers in the game or at least in the NL. He can dominate any line-up as he has done so many times in the past and he looks as good or better this year than he has at any point in his career. In his last start he made the Rockies look silly up there. Cain throws strikes and he’s also getting more ground ball this year than he did last year and that’s also a testament to how good this guy is throwing. Cain’s ERA over his last three starts is 1.89. Nolasco is a good pitcher to be sure and he can definitely throw a gem here but the Giants are very warm here while the Marlins are not. San Fran has won six of eight while the Fish have lost six of eight and when you throw in a tag on Cain, this one is simply a must play. Play: San Francisco +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
