All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
CINCINNATI -1.04 over Chicago http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>This is a case of one pitcher with great numbers that shouldn’t be believed against another with awful numbers. However, Homer Bailey has way more potential than Carlos Silva and Bailey is showing signs of coming on. Silva has an ERA of 2.90 and a BAA of .219 but that all hinges on how much you believe of that. This is a guy that has never had stats like that in his eight-year career and you can be assured that a few disastrous starts are forthcoming. In close to 1200 career innings, Silva’s career ERA is 4.67 and his career BAA is .302. This year Silva has an unsustainable 76% strand rate and his GB/FB ratio is an awful one in favor of the fly-ball. His last start is a better indication of what to expect, as he got rocked in Arizona, which is a hitter’s park similar to the one he’ll pitch in here. Furthermore, the Cubbies are playing awful ball right now and were just swept in Pittsburgh, where they scored a miserable five runs in three games against Paul Maholm, Charlie Morton, Brian Burres and the Pirates pen. Bailey, meanwhile has good stuff, very good in fact but he throws too many pitches and walks too many people. However, he has shown much improvement over his last two starts and if he can avoid walking batters here, he has a great chance for success. Bailey is coming off two good starts and that includes one in St. Louis, where he held the Cards to two earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. The Reds have won seven of 10 and even if Bailey gets lit up, Cinci still have a good chance of winning. A more likely scenario is that Silva gets lit up while the Cubbies continue to stink it up at the plate. Play: Cincinnati -1.04 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>San Francisco +1.07 over NY METS http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Mile Pelfrey is another one of those pitchers that has great stats this season but in no way is he going to enjoy continued success. His command is average at best and an alarming 70% of his pitches are fastballs and that’s going to catch up to him for sure. Pelfrey has been very lucky with an 82% strand rate, which is unsustainable. His BPV** is 29 (see just under all these write-ups for a glossary of terms used), which is a truer indication of what is forthcoming. It’s also worth noting that the Mets team batting average has dropped to .236 and is .212 over its last five games. Jonathan Sanchez is striking out batters at will. He’s always had nasty stuff and it could all come together this year. His career BAA is .241 but this year it’s down to .170. He’s whiffed 37 batters in 29 frames and has yet to give up a single jack all season. In three of his five starts he did not give up a single run and that includes a five-inning stint in Colorado. Sanchez has had one poor outing and it came in Philadelphia. Pelfrey and the Mets favored over Sanchez and the very warm Giants is completely incorrect. Play: San Francisco +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Kansas City +1.09 over TEXAS (1st 5 innings)http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>There are so many things to like about Zack Greinke and the Royals here but let’s start by saying this is a much better play in the first five frames due to the Royals toxic bullpen. Greinke has overcome a couple of shaky outings to get on a roll lately, with a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts. Pitching in hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark hasn't been an issue for Greinke during his recent run of success. In fact, since 2007, he has a 0.82 ERA and 0 walks in 22 innings pitched there. He also has one of the best BPV’s in the majors, which is now at 129. Greinke’s last three PQS** (see under write-ups for an explanation of PQS) scores have all been 5. The guy is one of the best in the league and some justice is forthcoming, as he has yet to win a game this season, which is why W/L records is the most misleading stat in all of baseball. The Royals are hitting .296 against lefties and will see one here in C. J. Wilson. Wilson is throwing great but we’ve seen a progressive reduction in his strikeouts over the past four games. That’s a sign that the players are starting to adjust to him and it’s also worth noting that he has an unsustainable 85% strand rate thus far. No doubt Wilson has been pitching great but he’s also been fortunate and his numbers will begin to correct itself over the next few games. Greinke plus a tag in five innings is always a strong play. Play: Kansas City +1.09 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).<o
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></o>Detroit –1.05 over CLEVELAND http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>This really is a rather cheap lay on the Tigers and the reason for that is they’ve dropped three in a row and Jeremy Bonderman has an ERA of 5.74. So, let’s talk about that. If you take away one awful start in Seattle, Bonderman’s ERA would be 3.57. He has great command, as his nine walks in five starts will attest to. He dominated the Indians in the first game of the year in which he allowed just one hit in five innings. Bonderman is certainly not a reliable pitcher but he’s surely more reliable than David Huff. Huff has a BPV of –11, that’s right minus 11. He’s walked 12 batters while striking out just 13. The Indians are 1-4 when he starts and his confidence has to be shaken after allowing 22 hits over his last 10 innings. He has an extraordinarily high 48% flyball rate and that explains the seven jacks he’s surrendered in just 31 innings this year. Nothing is good about David Huff and if you wager on him chances are high you’ll be ripping up the ticket. Play: Detroit –1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
