Large
Braves +117
Call me a masochist, but I have to go back on the Braves. They continue to trade at a price that materially deviates from my model. There is no surprise that I will find value on the Braves, as they have been my biggest long position so far this year, while the Phillies have been my biggest short position. Moyer continues to trade at a “fadeable” price despite continuing to pitch poorly. Last week he was bailed out by an onslaught on Santana. Although Lowe has not looked good so far this year, don’t expect the same run support this week to protect Moyer. Lowe is coming off his best start of the season. Last year, he dominated the Phillies, and has had success against them throughout his career. A sinkerball pitcher is exactly what you want pitching against the Phillies in their park. Unlike Lowe, Moyer is a flyball pitcher that gets eaten up by the small outfield. He has allowed a home run just about every four innings so far. Backed by a inferior bullpen should give the Braves a pitching edge throughout. Hayward will be missed, but probably not in this game, as he does not match up well against a left handed soft thrower.
Reds -124
Clearly not the value that it had on the overnight, but oddsmakers continue to overinflate an average Cubs team. Silva showed signs of breaking down and coming back to earth last start. Don’t be surprised to see the trend continue this week. His struggles in recent years has been predicated on the long ball. Prior to last start, he allowed just one, an indication that he may have fixed this deficiency. Last start, he allowed three. Facing a power lineup in a hitters park can exploit this potential problem. The Cubs bullpen is below average and overused. They are struggling away from home. Bailey has a lot of upside off of current form. He has looked better in his last two starts and is very streaky. A sign of an uptick is an ideal time to back him. Bullpen edge to the Reds.
Rangers -110
Wilson is a solid pitcher that is pitching in dominant fashion right now. Not sure why, but the market is not pricing him anywhere near that. Grienke is simply too big of a risk right now as his run support is lacking. He will probably be forced to go as long as possible due to the overworked pen from last night. The Rangers lineup has been underachieving all season. They are also very streaky. Last night was a potential sign of breakout. The Royals have won just on of Grienke’s six starts. Yet he still is being priced quite lofty.
Upper Medium
Marlins -102
The Marlins are coming off getting swept at home. The Nationals continue to overachieve and pad their record winning games they should be losing. This is a sentiment value play on the Marlins. Voltsad has pitched better than his stats would indicate. All his starts have been quality starts but one. His last start has been one of the best pitching performances in the NL this season. It happened to be against the same Nationals ballclub. Not big on Stammen, and his given me no reason to be. He is simply too hittable, especially after the first time through the lineup. This does not bode well for him coming off a start against the same lineup that he has to face tonight. Especially if the lineup roughed him up. The Nats bullpen is overachieving and worked a lot of their hot arms the last couple of days.
Mets -106
Time to start going against the Giants as their recent uptick has brought buyers back. But this still a team with a really bad lineup, and if you don’t have a reliable dominant pitcher on the mound, this teams value drops materially. Sanchez can be dominant at times, but very mediocre at times as well. He is also very streaky, and is coming off his worst start of the season. The Mets lineup is a veteran lineup that is patient at the plate. This is exactly what you want against Sanchez, who struggles finding the strike zone at times, and is heavily dependent on hitters chasing outside the strike zone. Injury news surrounding Pelfrey may have created value in backing him. He appears to be fine, and the Mets having the day off yesterday and a deep bullpen gives them leverage if he is not. He looks new and improved this season, and last start may have been just a blip.
Padres -112
I tend to find the Padres coming with a lot more value on the road. Their solid pitching makes a big park unnecessary and more advantageous in small parks like Houston’s. Houston’s lineup is in shambles and having a hitters park is all for not. Norris is coming off three straight bad starts and appears to be getting progressively worse. He can not find the strike zone. This is not something you want against an anemic lineup that manufactures runs. Their bullpen is also injured and struggling. Latos is pitching better and is better than his ERA would indicate. He has had just one bad start all season. The Astros have never seen him and is hard to pickup. Huge bullpen edge to the Padres.
White Sox -112
Buerhle is really out of favor. But his bad starts were against dominant lineups and small strike zones, a recipe for disaster for his pitching style. Toronto is a much better pitching match for him, and past success against this lineup is no surprise. He is more effective on his home mound as well. The White Sox lineup is starting to come alive. Marcum has pitched well, but has also faced some really soft lineups. He hasn’t pitched away from home in over a month, which may break up his rhythm. Struggling more against right handed hitters this year is not something you want against the White Sox lineup. The Blue Jays are overvalued more times than not, and this appears to be one of those times.
Braves +117
Call me a masochist, but I have to go back on the Braves. They continue to trade at a price that materially deviates from my model. There is no surprise that I will find value on the Braves, as they have been my biggest long position so far this year, while the Phillies have been my biggest short position. Moyer continues to trade at a “fadeable” price despite continuing to pitch poorly. Last week he was bailed out by an onslaught on Santana. Although Lowe has not looked good so far this year, don’t expect the same run support this week to protect Moyer. Lowe is coming off his best start of the season. Last year, he dominated the Phillies, and has had success against them throughout his career. A sinkerball pitcher is exactly what you want pitching against the Phillies in their park. Unlike Lowe, Moyer is a flyball pitcher that gets eaten up by the small outfield. He has allowed a home run just about every four innings so far. Backed by a inferior bullpen should give the Braves a pitching edge throughout. Hayward will be missed, but probably not in this game, as he does not match up well against a left handed soft thrower.
Reds -124
Clearly not the value that it had on the overnight, but oddsmakers continue to overinflate an average Cubs team. Silva showed signs of breaking down and coming back to earth last start. Don’t be surprised to see the trend continue this week. His struggles in recent years has been predicated on the long ball. Prior to last start, he allowed just one, an indication that he may have fixed this deficiency. Last start, he allowed three. Facing a power lineup in a hitters park can exploit this potential problem. The Cubs bullpen is below average and overused. They are struggling away from home. Bailey has a lot of upside off of current form. He has looked better in his last two starts and is very streaky. A sign of an uptick is an ideal time to back him. Bullpen edge to the Reds.
Rangers -110
Wilson is a solid pitcher that is pitching in dominant fashion right now. Not sure why, but the market is not pricing him anywhere near that. Grienke is simply too big of a risk right now as his run support is lacking. He will probably be forced to go as long as possible due to the overworked pen from last night. The Rangers lineup has been underachieving all season. They are also very streaky. Last night was a potential sign of breakout. The Royals have won just on of Grienke’s six starts. Yet he still is being priced quite lofty.
Upper Medium
Marlins -102
The Marlins are coming off getting swept at home. The Nationals continue to overachieve and pad their record winning games they should be losing. This is a sentiment value play on the Marlins. Voltsad has pitched better than his stats would indicate. All his starts have been quality starts but one. His last start has been one of the best pitching performances in the NL this season. It happened to be against the same Nationals ballclub. Not big on Stammen, and his given me no reason to be. He is simply too hittable, especially after the first time through the lineup. This does not bode well for him coming off a start against the same lineup that he has to face tonight. Especially if the lineup roughed him up. The Nats bullpen is overachieving and worked a lot of their hot arms the last couple of days.
Mets -106
Time to start going against the Giants as their recent uptick has brought buyers back. But this still a team with a really bad lineup, and if you don’t have a reliable dominant pitcher on the mound, this teams value drops materially. Sanchez can be dominant at times, but very mediocre at times as well. He is also very streaky, and is coming off his worst start of the season. The Mets lineup is a veteran lineup that is patient at the plate. This is exactly what you want against Sanchez, who struggles finding the strike zone at times, and is heavily dependent on hitters chasing outside the strike zone. Injury news surrounding Pelfrey may have created value in backing him. He appears to be fine, and the Mets having the day off yesterday and a deep bullpen gives them leverage if he is not. He looks new and improved this season, and last start may have been just a blip.
Padres -112
I tend to find the Padres coming with a lot more value on the road. Their solid pitching makes a big park unnecessary and more advantageous in small parks like Houston’s. Houston’s lineup is in shambles and having a hitters park is all for not. Norris is coming off three straight bad starts and appears to be getting progressively worse. He can not find the strike zone. This is not something you want against an anemic lineup that manufactures runs. Their bullpen is also injured and struggling. Latos is pitching better and is better than his ERA would indicate. He has had just one bad start all season. The Astros have never seen him and is hard to pickup. Huge bullpen edge to the Padres.
White Sox -112
Buerhle is really out of favor. But his bad starts were against dominant lineups and small strike zones, a recipe for disaster for his pitching style. Toronto is a much better pitching match for him, and past success against this lineup is no surprise. He is more effective on his home mound as well. The White Sox lineup is starting to come alive. Marcum has pitched well, but has also faced some really soft lineups. He hasn’t pitched away from home in over a month, which may break up his rhythm. Struggling more against right handed hitters this year is not something you want against the White Sox lineup. The Blue Jays are overvalued more times than not, and this appears to be one of those times.
