All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.22 over CHICAGOhttp://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Blue Jays are red hot right now and for some strange reason the South Side cannot beat this team. In fact, the Blue Jays have beaten the White Sox four of six times this season and 20 of 26 overall. Keep your eye on Brett Cecil, as this guy’s numbers are not an aberration. He has nasty stuff, he throws strikes, he works quickly and his confidence is soaring. Cecil looks like a 10-year vet out there and is without question, one of the best young pitchers in the business. Cecil has one of the top BPV’s in the majors and his PQS scores over his three starts have been 4-4-5, respectively (see under write-ups for explanation of BPV’s and PQS). Jake Peavy has had three decent starts and three brutal one’s thus far. Two of his three good starts came against the Indians and those are the only two games the South Side has won when he was the starting pitcher. Alex Rios, Paul Konerko and Andrew Jones all have decent batting averages against lefties but will face a very tough one here. The rest of the team is hitting .170 against southpaws and thus, it’s hard to envision the White Sox mustering up much offense here. The Jays have won seven in a row and any tag on Cecil here has to be considered tremendous value. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Atlanta +1.45 over PHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Baseball is a funny game. For instance, the Cubbies could barely manage to score a run in three games in Pittsburgh and then went into Cincinnati and scored five times in the first innings and 14 in the game. Last night the Braves were shutout by Jamie Moyer and mustered two hits in nine innings against a 47, soon to be 48-year-old pitcher. Having said that, the Braves are the NL’s third-highest scoring team over the last week. Entering play Friday, they’d averaged 5.5 runs per game in the past six games after averaging 3.6 in their first 22. More than that, however, is the fact that Joe Blanton should not be favored by this much over anyone. Blanton returned from the DL to pitch against the Cardinals and while he allowed just four runs in 6.2 innings, he still allowed 10 hits and in a bunch of other outs, the Cards crushed the ball but were unfortunate to hit it right at people. Blanton has always allowed a ton of base-runners and there’s really nothing to like about this guy especially as a 3-2 favorite. He also doesn’t look to be in the best shape either. Instead of staying fit while on the DL, Blanton looks like he gained about 20 pounds. Medlen is taking the place of injured Jair Jurrjens. He hasn’t proven himself as a starter yet but has really excelled in a relief role this season. He’s only walked three batters in 17.2 frames while striking out 16 and he’s already appeared in 12 games. The problem with playing the Bravews for the whole game is that Medlan is the team’s best reliever and he himself will very likely not go more than five innings. This wager is solely based on the starting pitchers, thus, it only makes sense to play it in five. Play: Atlanta +1.40 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Colorado +1.02 over LOS ANGELES http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Dodgers are hitting pretty good these days and in fact they lead the NL in batting but they’ll face a guy here they’ve only seen very briefly and that occurred last season when he faced two Dodgers in a relief appearance. Jhoulys Chacin (125 BPV, 5 PQS) makes his second start, and third appearance of the season and has looked rather impressive so far. He keeps the ball down and his command is definitely improving. He’s walked three batters while striking out nine and has only allowed one hit in eight innings thus far. This kid has all the ingredients for a long major-league career and is coming off a one-hit, seven-inning pure gem against the Giants in San Fran. Charlie Haeger (0 BPV, 5-0-1-0 PQS) made the Marlins look pretty foolish in his season debut, but has fallen on hard times since. His K/BB in that first start was 12/4; in five subsequent appearances (two in relief), that ratio is 11/13. Haeger has appeared in six games for the Dodgers and L.A. has lost them all. He has an alarmingly high WHIP of 1.84 to go along with an ERA of 6.84 and a BAA of .341. The Rockies are really seeing the ball well these days and in fact, they’ve scored 48 runs over its last nine games. It’s highly likely more runs are forthcoming in this one. Play: Colorado +1.02 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>TEXAS –1½ +1.11 over Kansas City http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Royals are quickly falling off the map and after losing last night and four of its last five, they now sit at 11-19 for the year. Things surely don’t figure to get better here. Gil Meche (-66 BPV, 0-2-0-3-1 PQS) hasn’t gotten himself right through five starts this season. Meche is still in the rotation because the Royals are paying him in excess of 12M this season and that’s a lot of bullets to be paying someone to sit out. The numbers speak volumes. Meche has an off-the-charts WHIP of 2.23. He’s walked 18 batters in 23 innings with just 14 K’s. He’s also allowed 36 hits for a BAA of .353. Now he’ll pitch in a park that is unforgiving to struggling pitchers and Meche fits the bill. He’s as fragile as any pitcher in the league right now and then some. Meanwhile, Rich Harden woke up last game by not walking a single hitter and striking out nine. A strikeout pitcher in this park always has an advantage and it sure doesn’t hurt that he’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA against the Royals in his career. The Rangers are heating up and it really is hard to imagine this one turning out any other way. Hell, this team can’t win with Zack Greinke on the hill so how in the wide, wide world of sports are they going to stay close here? Play: Texas –1½ +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
