MLB 5/8 Plays

buffettgambler · May 8, 2010

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Braves +138
I have not bet more money on any other team this year than the Braves. I have also not lost more money on any other team than the Braves. In hindsight, it is starting to appear that I may have overvalued this team right out of the gates. Having said that, this team is underachieving so badly that it is hard not to find value on them when valuing them anywhere near their upside potential. Meddlen is a big wildcard in the starting role, but the market appears to be reluctant to price him anywhere near his upside potential. He has a really solid pitching arsenal, nice strikeout rate and solid control. He is hard to hit home runs against and does not give up many walks. This is exactly what you want facing a powerful Phillies lineup that knows how to draw walks. Although he is not likely to surpass the 75 pitch mark, the Braves deep bullpen will compliment this deficiency. The Phillies will also more than likely be without Utley in this game. Sooner or later, the Braves lineup will come out of their prolong hitting slump. Today is as good of a day as any, as they face a pitcher that is still getting into pitching shape, and a pitcher they had success against last year. Blanton is prone to the longball, and not a good fit for this park (despite posting solid home numbers last year). He is not backed by a solid bullpen, which was the cause for him to go back into the 7<sup>th</sup> in his first start of the season, and allow the three run home run.
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Indians +139
I have no problem backing Masterson when he is out of favor, as he has a lot of upside off of current form. Last start was a good sign that he may be coming out of his funk, as he only walked one batter, compared to the control problems that lead to nine walks in his two outings prior. He does a good job eating up right handed hitters, which bodes well against the Tigers lineup whose best hitters bat from the right side, and will send out six of them today to face him. The return of Wood pushes back other pen pitchers to provide depth to their underbelly. It didn’t take much for the market to once again put a premium on Verlanders pricing. In fact, just one quality start, and his second all season. Verlander was roughed up already by the Indians this season. He has been struggling more against left handed hitters this year compared to years past. The Indians will send out three plus hitters from the left side. The Tigers have struggled away from home, and do not have the ideal bullpen for being such a large road favorite.

Stabler12 · May 8, 2010

I love being on dogs, but the Braves are playing like 'dogs.' Nevertheless, I will back them once again, although I am cutting back on bet size for that one. Can't get into picking and choosing and I don't have any factors in my arsenal that point to the Phillies. Besides, without Utley, the Phils are missing the heart and soul of the lineup. Thanks and GL, BG.

p.s. that is as close as I'll get to critiquing a selection, hope you don't take exception to it.:toast:

HacheMan · May 8, 2010

Good luck bg

HatTrick · May 8, 2010

With the loss of Seay I thought the Tigers pen might be in a bit of trouble but have been pleasantly surprised so far. I don't pretend to fully understand how your betting model works but is there a point where you adjust and say to yourself, "ok, it's clear that this pen is better than I had forecast." I realize it's a long season and 29 games is a drop in the bucket....

Ni, Perry, Coke, Zumaya and Valverde have been pretty solid in this young season. If the starters can pull their weight and throw their share of quality starts I feel this group is actually pretty strong.

I'd love to hear your thoughts if you've got the time.

Cheers!

buffettgambler · May 8, 2010

HatTrick said:
With the loss of Seay I thought the Tigers pen might be in a bit of trouble but have been pleasantly surprised so far. I don't pretend to fully understand how your betting model works but is there a point where you adjust and say to yourself, "ok, it's clear that this pen is better than I had forecast." I realize it's a long season and 29 games is a drop in the bucket....

Ni, Perry, Coke, Zumaya and Valverde have been pretty solid in this young season. If the starters can pull their weight and throw their share of quality starts I feel this group is actually pretty strong.

I'd love to hear your thoughts if you've got the time.

Cheers!

I thought Seay's absence was going to hurt the Tigers pen as well, but right now, their production is head and shoulders above any other team in the league. I adjust each bullpen pitchers intrinsic value/role in the pen as much as possible. I have upgraded a few of their bullpen pitchers. In hindsight, the one I was probably too bearish on was Zumaya. But even with the upgrades, in my opinion, the Tigers are an average bullpen vulnerable to material regression. What they have going for them is decent depth and pitcher/hitter matchup edges that can allow a curtailment in regression from the effects of a drop off in productivity of a couple of their overachieving players. When they get Seay back, the bullpen will be well off.

TheHungerForMore · May 8, 2010

buffett is taking a lot of heat today. I bet he'll turn a profit today.

TheHungerForMore · May 8, 2010

Stabler12 said:
I love being on dogs

Me too. I feel a lot more comfortable betting on dogs and don't mind the slow but long-term style in the MLB. I wish BG would post his doggies even if their small/medium once in a while.

HatTrick · May 8, 2010

Thanks for the response BG. I'm still not convinced that Zumaya will have a good year. Although he's been around a few years he still hasn't learned how to pitch. Hopefully he can stay injury-free and also finally realize that his fastball is very hittable, no matter how hard he throws it.

bodyforlife · May 8, 2010

Braves again, Wow. Maybe that comment will bring you good luck. They certainly look completely overrated though at this early stage of the season and a good go against.

billsfan · May 8, 2010

braves looking good for you....You see anything else today??

buffettgambler · May 8, 2010

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White Sox -133
This line is way off. Ever since the first inning of the Rangers game two starts ago, Peavy has been downright dominant. He has gotten his control back, and in return his confidence. He is looking more and more like the pitcher of old, and should start getting priced a bit closer to that pitcher than he should have been a couple of starts back. He was roughed up over a month ago by this Blue Jays lineup. Now he appears to be a much more effective pitcher. Expect him to be extra motivated to avenge that loss. Cecil has been a really big surprise after his first three starts. But I am not sold on him just yet. He can really struggle against right handed hitters, which does not make him a good match up when having to face a right handed loaded White Sox lineup. One thing that scouts say can really plague him is his inability to pitch from the stretch. He tips pitches and struggles with runners on. He has done a really good job avoiding the stretch, but simply can not keep that rate of pitches out of the stretch going. Good time to go against him while he is overachieving.
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Reds +100
Going back on the Reds, as the Cubs are once again a really overvalued road team in my opinion. The market appears to be extra confident with them today as they are backed by their hottest pitcher. However, Gorzelanny is pitching well over his head, and I don’t like his chances nearly as much against a team that has had success against him in the past and knows him well. Even when he is pitching well, he is not a candidate to go deep into games. The Cubs front end pen can be gotten too. A lot of concern should have been circulating Harrang’s valuations in recent starts. But he has recently shown some signs of improvement and an indication that he has something left in the tank. He shows a nice FIP v. ERA disparity, his walk rate is down, and his groundball rate is materially up. He has been plagued by his fair share of bad luck. Last year he pitched well against the Cubs, indication that he has improved off his past struggles against them. Bullpen edge to the Reds.

NyMets609 · May 8, 2010

nice nice. very happy to see you on the White Sox. we both just posted them at the same time lol. lets get em!

Stabler12 · May 8, 2010

Thanks, GL, and Hallelujah, the Braves won for us! BG, I think it was me reading them the riot act this morning that got us the Atlanta win.

<<

buffettgambler · May 8, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Thanks, GL, and Hallelujah, the Braves won for us! BG, I think it was me reading them the riot act this morning that got us the Atlanta win.<<

Please keep those riot acts coming! They still have done some good damage to my bankroll.

buffettgambler · May 8, 2010

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Angels +126
The Mariners are in shambles. This is the second game in a row the market has ignored this as it is the second straight night they send a really hot pitcher in the mound. Yesterday was a rude awakening to how little margin of error these pitchers have for themselves. The Mariners have scored six runs in the last four games, and have not scored a run in two straight. When offenses are in prolong slumps, it has a propensity to alter the pitching style of their starting pitcher in fear of trying to not allow a run. This may have happened to Felix last night. Whether it happens to Fister tonight or not, he is pitching well over his head right now. He has a huge FIP/ERA disparity suggesting smoke in mirrors and padded surface stats. Mariners have no business being this large of a favorite while playing as poorly as they have been.
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Rangers -199
Even at this price, Meche is overvalued and hard to justify betting on. His arm is shot. He has no control of his pitches and his confidence is shot. He has yet to pitch a decent game all season, and the likelihood of it happening against a team that has owned him throughout his career is low. His strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is up. This is a recipe for disaster and a forward looking indicator stating that bad luck has little to do with his struggles. His line drive rate is also materially up. The Royals do not have the bullpen to back up a struggling pitcher. Harden appears to be turning things around. He has been hard to score against despite allowing his fair share of baserunners. Every single one of his starts he has been plagued by a lot of walks, expect for his last start where he did not allow one. This is a really good sign. So is the notion that the Royals are not one of your better lineups at drawing the. I see value in the large favorite.

TheHungerForMore · May 8, 2010

What' your line for Rangers?

looks like a paid day. He also had O's and A's.

buffettgambler · May 8, 2010

thehungerformore said:
what' your line for rangers?

looks like a paid day. He also had o's and a's.

nvl -224

Stabler12 · May 8, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Please keep those riot acts coming! They still have done some good damage to my bankroll.

I do whatever it takes, BG!:lolBIG: Good to know you have a sense of humor about all this.(<)<

Stabler12 · May 8, 2010

Thanks and GL on those last 2, BG. Missed the Rangers for a good purpose, I was out taking my wife and kids for ice cream.

IrishTim · May 8, 2010

I missed the Rangers as well. Hope the ice cream was good. It's 38 and raining here in South Bend.

Munson, you might find it funny that I used a $100 freeplay that had been sitting in one of my accounts for months on the Braves today. I swore I wasn't going to let them cut into my bankroll anymore. I ended up getting great equity out of the FP, though. :toast: