1k -> 10k in 236 Days (Day 1)

Grind-It-Out · May 9, 2010

Day 1
Current Bankroll: $1,000
Goal Bankroll: $10,000
r: 0.0098
Necessary expected win: $9.80

r = (P/C)^(1/n)-1
P = 10,000
C = 1,000
n = 236
Necessary expected win = r * c

Day 1 will be a 4 team parlay, with odds of 11.01-1. I locked mine in at 5Dimes. I would recommend either 5Dimes or BetJamaica for American players.

I can confirm that 5Dimes offers true odds for 4 teamers. Be sure to check your own book before placing the bet if you are using someone else.

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 5/9/10 2:05pm MLB Baseball 919 Toronto Blue Jays/Chicago White Sox Over 8 -115* (R Romero - L must Start G Floyd - R must Start)
Pending 5/9/10 2:10pm MLB Baseball 922 Minnesota Twins -146* vs Baltimore Orioles (B Matusz - L must Start N Blackburn - R must Start)
Pending 5/9/10 4:10pm MLB Baseball 927 Los Angeles Angels -108* vs Seattle Mariners (E Santana - R must Start J Vargas - L must Start)
Pending 5/9/10 8:05pm MLB Baseball 929 New York Yankees -102* vs Boston Red Sox (A Burnett - R must Start J Lester - L must Start)

I am estimating that we win the Sox bet 58% of the time, the Twins bet 67% of the time, the Yanks bet 58% of the time and the Angels bet 56% of the time. This makes our odds of winning the parlay .58*.67*.58*.56 = 12.62%.

.1262(11.01) - .8738 = .51562

So, .51562 is the amount we expect to win for every dollar bet (parlays are cool, huh).

9.8/.51562 = $19.01

So, you should be making a $19.01 bet on the above parlay.

Good luck!

HacheMan · May 9, 2010

Good luck to you

Grind-It-Out · May 9, 2010

Thanks Hache.

Grind-It-Out · May 9, 2010

Just a heads up... Sticking to the suggested betting amounts is HUGELY important in this system. Today we're making a bet that has huge +EV but we only expect to win one out of every eight times. Betting too much could crush your bankroll quickly.

Grind-It-Out · May 9, 2010

Day 1 ends in a loss.

Starting Bankroll: $1,000;
Current Bankroll: $980.99;
Goal Bankroll: $10,000;
Days Elapsed: 1;
Days Remaining: 235;

Be back tomorrow.

PhillyMan · May 9, 2010

:think2:I hope you don't plan on making money in the long run playing 4 team parlays... FYI....you won't come out ahead. Good Luck to you however.:smoking:

makethat$$ · May 9, 2010

Parlays are not +EV. There were so many times last year i had 4 team parlays and 1 team fucked it up for me. The most i will do is 3 from time to time but playing single games is where you make the money. GL man

Grind-It-Out · May 9, 2010

makethat$$ said:
Parlays are not +EV. There were so many times last year i had 4 team parlays and 1 team fucked it up for me. The most i will do is 3 from time to time but playing single games is where you make the money. GL man

This goes to PhillyMan too, but you're the one that mentioned EV so I'll quote you.

Just because you lost some last year, how does that prove that they are not +EV?

Parlays exaggerate the advantage that one has on a game. If the book has the advantage over you, then you are now screwed more. If you have the advantage over the book, however, you just added to your advantage by parlaying it.

Keep in mind that I need to win that parlay 1 out of 11 times to be successful. In no way do I expect to win on a given day. I will be thrilled with 15%.

If you do the math, you'll notice that I am right. If you don't do the math, well then that's not my fault.

Grind-It-Out · May 9, 2010

Also, the only way parlays are NOT +EV is if the individual games are not +EV. And, if that's the case, what are you doing betting in the first place?

NyMets609 · May 9, 2010

Grind-It-Out said:
This goes to PhillyMan too, but you're the one that mentioned EV so I'll quote you.

Just because you lost some last year, how does that prove that they are not +EV?

Parlays exaggerate the advantage that one has on a game. If the book has the advantage over you, then you are now screwed more. If you have the advantage over the book, however, you just added to your advantage by parlaying it.

Keep in mind that I need to win that parlay 1 out of 11 times to be successful. In no way do I expect to win on a given day. I will be thrilled with 15%.

If you do the math, you'll notice that I am right. If you don't do the math, well then that's not my fault.

shit, you aint kidding...you do "grind-it-out" :smoking:

Grind-It-Out · May 9, 2010

NyMets609 said:
shit, you aint kidding...you do "grind-it-out" :smoking:

Haha, it's a long term thing. No sense in getting worked up in short term goals and ideals. Win % is an ideal. Profit should be the goal. Whether you win 15% of your games on huge underdogs or 85% of your games on huge favorites, what the hell's the difference?

JimmyVegas · May 9, 2010

Just fade the orioles...........and you'll be there in no time!!!

Grind-It-Out · May 9, 2010

haha yeah. who's that chick? i wanna google her to see a full sized image.

luCky-luCky · May 10, 2010

my goal is also 10k. but i started out with $1500. I am now at $3500 since the start of MLB season. I do single bets only. Good luck to you.

Donkwin47 · May 10, 2010

Someone who understands EV, finally. Are you a poker player as well? Most people have no idea, yet such a basic concept that can make numbers and gambling so much easier. Good luck to you, although I don't play parlays.. With too many teams variance can be a bitch, but 235 days to try and beat it, so good luck.

shdw01 · May 10, 2010

I hope you guys are joking about parlays and +EV...

first of all, parlays are slightly worse than betting games individually.....just see for yourself and run a standard -110 line for x amount of games (rolling entire balance over each game) and compare it to a parlay. The parlay pays less.

either way, i wish you luck

Grind-It-Out · May 10, 2010

shdw01 said:
I hope you guys are joking about parlays and +EV...

first of all, parlays are slightly worse than betting games individually.....just see for yourself and run a standard -110 line for x amount of games (rolling entire balance over each game) and compare it to a parlay. The parlay pays less.

either way, i wish you luck

Saying that they are +EV assumes that betting the games individually would also be +EV. Otherwise, why play them at all, right?

Let's say you have two games at -110 that you have a 55% chance of winning.

Betting individually.

.55(100/110) - .45 = .05 - That's your EV for every dollar bet.

Betting a parlay (parlay pays 2.64-1).

.55*.55*2.64 - (1 - .55*.55) = .1011

If you'd like to argue against math, have at it.
.

Grind-It-Out · May 10, 2010

Donkwin47 said:
Someone who understands EV, finally. Are you a poker player as well? Most people have no idea, yet such a basic concept that can make numbers and gambling so much easier. Good luck to you, although I don't play parlays.. With too many teams variance can be a bitch, but 235 days to try and beat it, so good luck.

Thanks man. SOOOO many people don't, and just instantly assume what they have been told (parlays are bad), and it's slightly annoying.
I'm glad you appreciate math more than gossip. :dancefool

IrishTim · May 10, 2010

I agree that 2 and 3 team parlays amplify one's advantage (if there is one, otherwise it just makes them lose money at a faster rate). I would stay away from the 4 teamers.

Grind-It-Out · May 10, 2010

IrishTim said:
I agree that 2 and 3 team parlays amplify one's advantage (if there is one, otherwise it just makes them lose money at a faster rate). I would stay away from the 4 teamers.

Right. Parlays amplify THE ADVANTAGE, not necessarily your advantage :lolBIG:.

1k -> 10k in 236 Days (Day 1)

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