MLB 5/9 Plays

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

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Upper medium
Braves +191
No surprise here. It is becoming a daily ritual posting about how undervalued the Braves are. So far it has been a costly angle to take. Although I don’t think the Braves are most likely to win this game than the Phillies, I do think they have a materially better chance than the implied probability the market has set indicates. Hamels has been really inconsistent this year and at this stage of the game is a dangerous pitcher to lay this type of price on. He has been more prone to the long ball this year despite increasing his ground ball rate. He has also really struggled against right handed bats. The Braves will send out seven against him today. Hamels also struggled against the Braves last year, and is not backed by a solid bullpen. Not too big on Kawakami, but think he is a good pitcher to back when out of favor. He is crafty and does not try to overpower the hitters. This is what you want against the Phillies bats. He is also backed by a deep bullpen, which bodes well, as he has been known to struggle the third and fourth time around an opponent’s lineup.

Stabler12 · May 9, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. Congrats on yesterday's great card!

degengambler · May 9, 2010

hamels very inconsistent

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

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Large
White Sox -112
Although the lineups look similar to normal, material upgrade in the White Sox intrinsic value due to lineup card information. I have been bearish on Romero all season. I think he is a decent pitcher, but he is being priced much better than a decent pitcher would be priced at. It is a good sign that their appears to be a disconnect in perception of his pricing of Romero with oddsmakers and the market, as a rare bid down on the opening price on Romero has finally occurred. He has allowed 8 runs in his last two games. Last year, Romero showed a propensity to struggle more the second and third start against an opposing lineup. He has yet to face the same lineup twice this year, until today. Floyd is a bit of a concern, but I think he is really out of favor right now. He has a huge FIP/ERA disparity, suggesting he should show an improvement in his ERA and WHIP going forward. Peavy’s solid start last night gives the White Sox leverage on pulling the plug early on Floyd if he does not a show a rebound today. No hotter hitter Buck in the lineup today.

Stabler12 · May 9, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. Boy, the Twins must have downgraded their lineup to be only -140ish vs. Baltimore.

TheHungerForMore · May 9, 2010

Laa/Los - Fla/Was lines?

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Thanks and GL, BG. Boy, the Twins must have downgraded their lineup to be only -140ish vs. Baltimore.

Having Mauer back helps, but he is replacing Kubel and not Ramos. Casilla and Harris are material downgrades. Having a southpaw in forces Thome out as well. The market is not afraid to back the O's with Matusz on the mound. On the surface, his 3.93 ERA is not terribly impressive. Factoring that five of his six starts were against the Rays (twice), Yankees (twice) and the Red Sox make it much more impressive.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Laa/Los - Fla/Was lines?

Fla NVL +102

Going to wait and for the lineups to come out on the other two. But it is hard to imagine the Dodgers not being a really large play. The line is ridiculous.

Stabler12 · May 9, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Having Mauer back helps, but he is replacing Kubel and not Ramos. Casilla and Harris are material downgrades. Having a southpaw in forces Thome out as well. The market is not afraid to back the O's with Matusz on the mound. On the surface, his 3.93 ERA is not terribly impressive. Factoring that five of his six starts were against the Rays (twice), Yankees (twice) and the Red Sox make it much more impressive.

Thanks for the info, I hadn't considered Matusz' opponents.

TheHungerForMore · May 9, 2010

How many cents is Hanley worth and Jose Reyes as well?

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
How many cents is Hanley worth and Jose Reyes as well?

It depends on who is replacing them, and on a smaller note, who the opposing pitcher is, players current form, and how far where the current NVL stands. Hanley has one of the highest value over replacement player (VORP/Brian Baden). If Barden were playing in today's game instead of Hanley, the Marlins would be downgraded 11 cents.

TheHungerForMore · May 9, 2010

buffettgambler said:
It depends on who is replacing them, and on a smaller note, who the opposing pitcher is, players current form, and how far where the current NVL stands. Hanley has one of the highest value over replacement player (VORP/Brian Baden). If Barden were playing in today's game instead of Hanley, the Marlins would be downgraded 11 cents.

Ok lets say Brain Roberts for the O's weren't hurt and his current form was basically maintaining his recent numbers carrer averages like a hit and there a some RBI in a few games. Ty Wigginton is his replacement and playing 2b today how many cents difference would it be? Or even Lugo his replacement is currently on a hot steak streak right now took his replacement for 2nd base. How many cents would be downgraded from the O's or possibly upgraded?

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Ok lets say Brain Roberts for the O's weren't hurt and his current form was basically maintaining his recent numbers carrer averages like a hit and there a some RBI in a few games. Ty Wigginton is his replacement and playing 2b today how many cents difference would it be? Or even Lugo his replacement is currently on a hot steak streak right now took his replacement for 2nd base. How many cents would be downgraded from the O's or possibly upgraded?

Again, there are more variables than the ones you mentioned. But to simplify it,and ignoring Winningtons current form
Roberts is valued 4 cents higher against RHP and 0 cents against LHP

Ignoring current forms, Winnington is worth 2 cents more than Lugo v. RHP and 4 cent more v. LHP

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

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Large
Rangers -161
The Rangers are quietly starting to become a solid team. The market is still a bit gun shy on them. They have an edge in every facet of this game plus home field advantage. Not sure whey this line is as low as it is. Feldman is a bit of a risk, but still think he is being priced to low. His bad starts are not a sign of an injury, and he has bounced back in some starts and has pitched really well. He is once again a pitcher whose FIP suggests improvement on a forward looking basis. His LOB% is materially less than his career totals and there is no fundamental reason to suggest the material drop off this year. He is backed by an underrated bullpen and faces one of the more anemic lineups in the league. Hochevar has been a horrible road pitcher throughout his career. The start of this year is no different. This park and this lineup is unforgiving for poor road pitchers. Hochevar’s strikeout rate and walk rate are worse this year than his career averages. He has masked this by an improved groundball rate and lack of home runs allowed. Not sure if this is sustainable do to increasing LD rate, suggesting teams are starting to make some good contact against him. The Royals bullpen lacks depth and are not reliable.

TheHungerForMore · May 9, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Again, there are more variables than the ones you mentioned. But to simplify it,and ignoring Winningtons current form
Roberts is valued 4 cents higher against RHP and 0 cents against LHP

Ignoring current forms, Winnington is worth 2 cents more than Lugo v. RHP and 4 cent more v. LHP

Thanks, BG. Yeah they're probably a ton like home/away, park ball factor, style of pitching as well, etc. Does defense have good amount of impact to your model? or just few cents here and there?

tmader7 · May 9, 2010

Jesus, you keep playing the Braves, you'll have a For Sale sign up in front of your hacienda. Sorry BG, but your analysis of this game would roll up nicely on a piece of paper, then stuck in one of those little plastic containers you used to pay a quarter for out of a gumball machine. Baseball is pitching and hitting, both areas the injuns are severly lacking in this game. #1 Kamakazi sucks, plain and simple. #2 The Braves can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag against left handed pitching. Sorry to jump in your thread, but this play is delusional at best.

~T~

Disclosure: Took Philly on the RL at even money

Stabler12 · May 9, 2010

Thanks and GL on Texas, BG.:toast:

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

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Dodgers +125
Every once in a while you get a pitcher that is so hot that it causes so much euphoria that it makes you look at a line at really scratch your head. Jimenez is doing it to this line. In order to justify this line, you Jimenez would be priced about 8 cents better than Lincecum. Although his numbers would suggest that fair, regression to the mean and true players worth would suggest otherwise. Lets put things in perspective. Jimenez has six starts so far this season. 2 have been against the Padres. 1 has been against a struggling Braves lineup. One against the Dbacks and one against the Nats. This guys isn’t exactly mowing down the greatest lineups in baseball. The Dodgers pose a threat to him. The know him well and have hit him well. They have been getting better against him as well. Getting Ramirez back in the lineup makes the Dodgers lineup once again complete. The market is being a bit fickle with Kershaw. He has just one start where he allowed more than one run. Kershaw’s high walk rate is a bit concerning, but he has always been prone to the walk. It would be more concerning if teams were hitting him well. He is a much better pitcher at home, and his past struggles against the Rockies occurred in Coors. Bullpen edge to the Dodgers. This line is off by a lot.
<o

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>
Red Sox -104
The market is becoming fearless with backing the Yankees. There is no Yankees bias in the marketplace like there once was, but when they get hot, they can really become inflated. Lester at home at even money is too good to pass up. After early season struggles, he appears to be in a zone, allowing just one run in his last three starts. Yesterday the Yankees showed once again how dangerous they are if you are a pitcher prone to the longball. That is not the case with Lester, who is one of the harder pitchers to go long against. He has pitched decently against the Yankees in the past and has had success against a couple of their hotter and better hitters. Burnett has pitched well, but his secondary numbers suggest regression is in the cards. The Red Sox absolutely owned him last year, and Fenway is a park where he has had some really bad outings in. The Red Sox are hard to sweep at home and have played well in games where their back was really against the wall.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2010

tmader7 said:
Jesus, you keep playing the Braves, you'll have a For Sale sign up in front of your hacienda. Sorry BG, but your analysis of this game would roll up nicely on a piece of paper, then stuck in one of those little plastic containers you used to pay a quarter for out of a gumball machine. Baseball is pitching and hitting, both areas the injuns are severly lacking in this game. #1 Kamakazi sucks, plain and simple. #2 The Braves can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag against left handed pitching. Sorry to jump in your thread, but this play is delusional at best.

~T~

Disclosure: Took Philly on the RL at even money

I don't teams, I bet prices. I am well aware of the Braves struggles. If you think you found the holy grail in sports betting by betting on slumping teams, you are sadly mistaken.

TheHungerForMore · May 9, 2010

BG, what you think of LAA +141 and possibly Cubs?

MLB 5/9 Plays

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