1k -> 10k (Day 2)

Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $980.99
Goal Bankroll: $10,000
Days Remaining: 235


Today's Bet: Parlay PHILADELPHIA -104 and ATLANTA -131
Today's Bet Amount: $39.66


The Details:


Interest rate formula tells us that we need to expect $9.74 of winnings today.

With 60% confidence on each of Atlanta and Philadelphia to win, we are getting .2456 of EV on the dollar for our parlay.

9.74 / .2456 = 39.66


Because we are only doing a two team parlay today, our EV is lower and therefore our bet size is significantly larger.


Guys, please let me know what you would prefer from now on. Would you prefer a 2 team parlay that wins much more often for us, or a 4 team parlay that rarely wins, but is actually better for the system? The only reason I ask is because I know it's hard for some people to follow a system that loses day after day, even if it's a winning system. Make sense?

Best of luck to all! :toast:

It makes sence to me. However if you take some favors and not parlays wouldn't that serve the same purpuse.

FLORIDABOY said:

It makes sence to me. However if you take some favors and not parlays wouldn't that serve the same purpuse.

Click to expand...

Yes and no. slightly lower EV but much higher winning %.

Best of Luck for the next 200+ days sir!

I can not disagree with the maths you have shown so far, but how you know your confidence-intervals are (close to) correct? That part obviously is what it all comes down to and will be the deciding factor - regardless of how well you are at maths.

Interested to see your progress

mea culpa said:

Best of Luck for the next 200+ days sir!

I can not disagree with the maths you have shown so far, but how you know your confidence-intervals are (close to) correct? That part obviously is what it all comes down to and will be the deciding factor - regardless of how well you are at maths.

Interested to see your progress

Click to expand...

You hit the nail on the head there. Predicting confidence intervals is the only challenge. I just have to hope that my past performance is indicative of my future performance.

Today's Bet: Parlay PHILADELPHIA -104 and ATLANTA -131
Today's Bet Amount: $39.66 to win $97.52
Result: +$97.52


Recap After Day 2

Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $1,078.51
Goal Bankroll: $10,000
Days Remaining: 234


I may be slightly restructuring this tomorrow after doing a lot of studying today on maximizing utility rather than maximizing profit.