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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/09/10 15-14-1 51.72% +20 Detail
05/08/10 18-11-0 62.07% +2840 Detail
05/07/10 13-13-0 50.00% -455 Detail
05/06/10 11-10-1 52.38% -165 Detail
05/05/10 16-13-1 55.17% +1775 Detail
05/04/10 12-15-3 44.44% -1885 Detail
05/03/10 9-10-1 47.37% -645 Detail
05/02/10 9-21-0 30.00% -6870 Detail
05/01/10 14-12-1 53.85% +2450 Detail
Totals 117-119-8 49.58% -2935

Monday, May 10Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Detroit +113 500
Detroit - Under 10 500

Cincinnati - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +104 500 *****
Pittsburgh - Over 8.5 500

Toronto - 7:10 PM ET Toronto +160 500 *****
Boston - Under 9.5 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -152 500
NY Mets - Under 8.5 500

Florida - 8:05 PM ET Florida +141 500 *****
Chi. Cubs -

Atlanta - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee +122 500 *****
Milwaukee - Over 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:40 PM ET Philadelphia +101 500 *****
Colorado - Over 10.5 500

LA Dodgers - 9:40 PM ET LA Dodgers -118 500
Arizona - Over 11 500 *****

Tampa Bay - 10:05 PM ET Tampa Bay -143 500
LA Angels - Over 8.5 500
 

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Monday, May 10


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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets
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New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers (105, 10)

Sergio Mitre makes his first start of the season for the Bronx Bombers, taking veteran Andy Pettitte's place in the rotation while he nurses a sore elbow.

Mitre is no stranger to the starting mound or elbow soreness. He started nine games for the Yankees last season after coming off Tommy John surgery and has 61 career starts to his credit.

Mitre has been solid as a reliever this season, posting a 2.79 ERA in five appearances. But he hasn't thrown more than three innings in a single outing and hasn't started a game since last season, when he lost two straight outings before going back to the bullpen.

Mitre, who had a 6.79 ERA as a starter last season, could have his arm strength put to the test if he makes it to the middle innings. His run support spent a late night at Fenway Park before flying to Detroit.

Detroit counters with Dontrelle Willis, who is having a solid comeback season, and the Tigers' powerful batting order could spell problems for Mitre and the Yanks.

Pick: Tigers


Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels (135, 8.5)


A's pitcher Dallas Braden made the mighty Rays' lineup looked like Little Leaguers by pitching a perfect game against them on Sunday. Don't expect it to be the start of a trend.

The Rays face Angels starter Joel Pinero, who has struggled against heavy-hitting team this season. He has lost his last three starts, allowing a combined 19 hits and 15 earned runs in 9.1 innings against the Tigers and Yankees.

The Rays certainly qualify as heavy hitters and they send Matt Garza to the mound, who is a red-hot 5-1 this season but has had problems with the Angels. In his last two starts vs. the AL's L.A., he lasted just 10 total innings and allowed 13 hits, eight earned runs and eight walks.

After a day when the Rays and Angels combined for just one run and five hits, look for both offenses to come to life tonight.

Pick: Over
 

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Monday, May 10


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This Day in Baseball
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On May 10 in Baseball History...

1888 - The Philadelphia Athletics play their first official Sunday home game at Gloucester, NJ — or so they think. The American Association league secretary will later rule the game illegally rescheduled and throw it out of the official records.

1959 - Philadelphia's Jim Hearn allows two earned runs before the game is suspended with the Pirates ahead 6-4. Hearn is released before the game is completed in July and is charged with the loss — two months after his retirement.

1967 - In the eighth inning against Jim Bunning of the Phillies, Hank Aaron drives a ball to deep center field and scores ahead of the relay. It will be the only inside-the-park home run among his 755.

1970 - While losing 6-5 to St. Louis, the Braves' Hoyt Wilhelm becomes the first pitcher ever to appear in 1,000 games.

1981 - Montreal's Charlie Lea, a native of France, no-hits the Giants 4-0, walking four and striking out eight in the second game of a doubleheader. It is the first no-hitter at Olympic Stadium, which opened for baseball in 1977.

1989 - Mark Langston no-hits Toronto for eight innings before Tom Lawless singles and the Blue Jays rally for three runs to beat Seattle 3-2. It is the third time already in 1989 that the Blue Jays have broken up a no-hit bid in the ninth inning.
 

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Dunkel



NY Yankees at Detroit
The Yankees look to build on their 5-0 record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. New York is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MAY 10

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
(7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.019; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.292
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Over

Game 953-954: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 15.179; NY Mets (Maine) 16.518
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-155); Under

Game 955-956: Florida at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Robertson) 14.127; Cubs (Lilly) 15.206
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); N/A

Game 957-958: Atlanta at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.134; Milwaukee (Davis) 16.477
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Under

Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Colorado (8:40p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.332; Colorado (Smith) 15.534
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 11
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 13.551; Arizona (Lopez) 14.352
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 12
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Over

Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mitre) 16.664; Detroit (Willis) 15.382
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Over

Game 965-966: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 14.831; Boston (Lackey) 16.436
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Over

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.112; LA Angels (Pineiro) 13.571
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Under
 

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Long Sheet


Monday, May 10


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CINCINNATI (16 - 15) at PITTSBURGH (14 - 17) - 7:05 PM
BRONSON ARROYO (R) vs. ROSS OHLENDORF (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARROYO is 4-17 (-15.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. (Team's Record)
PITTSBURGH is 268-283 (+34.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 37-29 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 93-97 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 66-64 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 69-71 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 27-23 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 51-34 (+19.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 94-99 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 493-573 (+50.5 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 55-43 (+19.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARROYO is 12-4 (+9.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 (+3.3 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

BRONSON ARROYO vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
ARROYO is 4-4 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.238.
His team's record is 4-6 (-3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.5 units)

ROSS OHLENDORF vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
OHLENDORF is 1-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

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WASHINGTON (17 - 14) at NY METS (17 - 14) - 7:10 PM
LUIS ATILANO (R) vs. JOHN MAINE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 86-159 (-46.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 35-85 (-25.9 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 28-65 (-21.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 17-14 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 17-14 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 224-221 (-60.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-1 (+2.4 Units) against NY METS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

LUIS ATILANO vs. NY METS since 1997
No recent starts.

JOHN MAINE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
MAINE is 8-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.160.
His team's record is 10-3 (+5.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.4 units)

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FLORIDA (14 - 17) at CHICAGO CUBS (14 - 18) - 8:05 PM
NATE ROBERTSON (L) vs. TED LILLY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 12-25 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
ROBERTSON is 74-104 (-35.7 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
ROBERTSON is 66-93 (-32.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
ROBERTSON is 27-55 (-28.2 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 28-8 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games in May games over the last 3 seasons.
LILLY is 40-16 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
FLORIDA is 93-74 (+24.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 185-169 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 51-44 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 48-42 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 36-28 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 6-13 (-11.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 97-96 (-26.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 566-510 (-120.0 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 97-96 (-26.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 45-54 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NATE ROBERTSON vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
ROBERTSON is 1-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

TED LILLY vs. FLORIDA since 1997
LILLY is 1-4 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.234.
His team's record is 2-4 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-1. (+3.8 units)

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ATLANTA (13 - 18) at MILWAUKEE (15 - 16) - 8:10 PM
TOMMY HANSON (R) vs. DOUG DAVIS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 99-94 (-18.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 53-54 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-14 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 5-14 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
ATLANTA is 69-67 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 44-48 (-18.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 72-73 (-26.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 24-12 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
DAVIS is 42-25 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 43-52 (-16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 44-49 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 44-49 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TOMMY HANSON vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
HANSON is 0-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of 1.385.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

DOUG DAVIS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
DAVIS is 1-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.292.
His team's record is 4-3 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.3 units)

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PHILADELPHIA (19 - 12) at COLORADO (15 - 16) - 8:40 PM
KYLE KENDRICK (R) vs. GREG SMITH (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 (+9.8 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 61-42 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 58-39 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

KYLE KENDRICK vs. COLORADO since 1997
KENDRICK is 1-2 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 6.84 and a WHIP of 1.760.
His team's record is 2-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-0. (+5.0 units)

GREG SMITH vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
SMITH is 0-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.587.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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LA DODGERS (14 - 17) at ARIZONA (14 - 18) - 9:40 PM
CHAD BILLINGSLEY (R) vs. RODRIGO LOPEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 4-11 (-9.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
LA DODGERS are 15-28 (-16.5 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 4-11 (-9.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LOPEZ is 83-72 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 84-110 (-28.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 43-52 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-12 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in home games in May games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 84-110 (-28.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 29-37 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 118-135 (-30.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 2-1 (+0.3 Units) against ARIZONA this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

CHAD BILLINGSLEY vs. ARIZONA since 1997
BILLINGSLEY is 6-5 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 3.93 and a WHIP of 1.457.
His team's record is 8-6 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-6. (+0.1 units)

RODRIGO LOPEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LOPEZ is 1-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.220.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.5 units)

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NY YANKEES (21 - 9) at DETROIT (17 - 14) - 7:05 PM
SERGIO MITRE (R) vs. DONTRELLE WILLIS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 9-18 (-12.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 28-13 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 60-33 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 60-33 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 90-44 (+30.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 71-38 (+19.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 135-72 (+27.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-25 (-16.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 118-134 (-36.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

SERGIO MITRE vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

DONTRELLE WILLIS vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
WILLIS is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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TORONTO (19 - 14) at BOSTON (16 - 16) - 7:10 PM
BRANDON MORROW (R) vs. JOHN LACKEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 30-51 (-20.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 93-44 (+26.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 16-9 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TORONTO is 9-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
TORONTO is 12-4 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TORONTO is 11-2 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LACKEY is 14-20 (-18.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
LACKEY is 4-9 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against TORONTO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

BRANDON MORROW vs. BOSTON since 1997
MORROW is 0-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.3 units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. TORONTO since 1997
LACKEY is 3-3 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 5-6 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.3 units)

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TAMPA BAY (22 - 9) at LA ANGELS (14 - 19) - 10:05 PM
MATT GARZA (R) vs. JOEL PINEIRO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
GARZA is 10-21 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 116-88 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 89-61 (+22.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 106-81 (+21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 13-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 13-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TAMPA BAY is 10-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 144-98 (+29.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 14-3 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
LA ANGELS are 11-19 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MATT GARZA vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
GARZA is 0-1 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 6.46 and a WHIP of 2.022.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

JOEL PINEIRO vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
PINEIRO is 2-4 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 5.57 and a WHIP of 1.519.
His team's record is 5-4 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-5. (-1.4 units)
 

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Write-Up



Monday, May 10

Hot pitchers
-- Atilano is 2-1, 4.67 in three starts this season.
-- Hanson is 2-1, 3.03 in his last five starts.
-- Kendrick is 1-1, 3.24 in his last four starts.

-- Willis has a 2.60 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lackey is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three starts. Morrow is 2-1, 2.96 in his last four starts.
-- Garza is 5-1, 2.30 in six starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 7.53 in his last five starts. Ohlendorf just came off the DL; he allowed three runs in five IP in his first '10 start.
-- Maine has a 6.59 RA in six starts this season.
-- Lilly is 0-2, 8.18 in his last two starts. Robertson is 0-3, 7.88 in his last three outings.
-- Davis is 1-3, 8.04 in six starts this season.
-- Colorado lost Smith's last four starts (0-1, 7.16).
-- Lopez is 0-1, 6.63 in his last three starts. Dodgers lost four of last five Billingsley starts (1-2, 6.75).

-- Mitre is 13-26, 5.49 in 61 career starts; he was 3-3, 6.79 in 9 starts for Bronx LY.
-- Pineiro is 0-3, 10.57 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Three of Maine's four home starts went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last nine Cub games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Hanson starts this season. Four of last five Davis starts went over the total.
-- Three of last four starts for both Smith, Kendrick stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Dodger home games went over the total.

-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Bronx games.
-- Five of last six Toronto games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Tampa Bay games.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won four of their last six games. Reds won three of four.
-- Mets won nine of their last ten home games. Washington won three of their last four games.
-- Phillies won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games.

-- Bronx won nine of its last eleven games. Detroit is 9-3 at home.
-- Toronto won seven of its last eight games. Red Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Tampa Bay is 13-3 on the road this season, but lost last two games.

Cold teams
-- Marlins, Cubs both lost five of their last six games.
-- Braves lost 11 of their last 13 road games.
-- Rockies are 5-7 in their last twelve games.
-- Diamondbacks lost four of last five games.

-- Angels lost eight of their last ten games.
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Monday, May 10


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Trend Report
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7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cincinnati's last 21 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

7:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 15 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Mets are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington

7:10 PM
TORONTO vs. BOSTON
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Boston
Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

8:05 PM
FLORIDA vs. CHI CUBS
Florida is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi Cubs's last 10 games

8:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 15 games when playing Atlanta

8:40 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. COLORADO
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 9 games

9:40 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 13 of LA Dodgers's last 18 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Arizona is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers

10:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
LA Angels are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
 

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MLB
Short Sheet



Monday, 5/10/2010

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH, 7:05 PM ET
ARROYO: Cincinnati 40-22 SU off 3+ division games
OHLENDORF: Pittsburgh 28-60 SU off an Over

WASHINGTON at NY METS, 7:10 PM ET
ATILANO: Washington 12-4 SU as an underdog of +150 or less
MAINE: Mets 49-32 Under vs. division opponents

FLORIDA at CHICAGO CUBS, 8:05 PM ET
ROBERTSON: Florida 12-25 SU in May
LILLY: 40-16 TSR in home games

ATLANTA at MILWAUKEE, 8:10 PM ET
HANSON: Atlanta 5-14 SU in road games
DAVIS: 42-25 TSR at home off a team win

PHILADELPHIA at COLORADO, 8:40 PM ET
KENDRICK: Philadelphia 10-2 SU away off 5+ home games
SMITH: 14-2 Under pitching off a team loss

LA DODGERS at ARIZONA, 9:40 PM ET
BILLINGSLEY: Dodgers 4-11 SU in road games
LOPEZ: 28-15 TSR at home with a line of +125 to -125

NY YANKEES at DETROIT, 7:05 PM ET ESPN
MITRE: 5-15 TSR as a favorite of -150 or less
WILLIS: Detroit 60-33 SU in road games

TORONTO at BOSTON, 7:10 PM ET
MORROW: Toronto 9-2 SU away off a win
LACKEY: 4-9 TSR at home vs. division opponents

TAMPA BAY at LA ANGELS, 10:05 PM ET
GARZA: 5-15 TSR as a road favorite
PINEIRO: Angels 21-9 Over off BB road games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change
 

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Monday Night Baseball Betting Preview

On the same night the New York Yankees say hello to an old friend, the Detroit Tigers bid farewell to one of their organization’s true legends. Johnny Damon faces the Yankees on Monday night for the first time since being signed by the Tigers, who will honor Ernie Harwell as they return to Comerica Park for the first time since the Hall of Fame broadcaster passed away last week.

Harwell spent 42 of his 55 years in broadcasting with the Tigers (17-14, +2.5 units) before retiring in 2002, and the man often referred to as the “voice of summer” died at 92 on Tuesday, eight months after revealing he’d been diagnosed with inoperable cancer.

Detroit honored Harwell with a ceremony shortly after he announced he was ill, and before the opener of this four-game set with the Yankees (21-9, +8.9), it’ll say goodbye. A flag with Harwell’s initials will be raised as part of the festivities.

“In my opinion, you haven’t been a big league ballplayer until Ernie Harwell talks about you,” said third baseman Brandon Inge, the lone current Tiger who will participate in the flag-raising. “That man was as genuine as they come. He means more to the Detroit Tigers, the state of Michigan and the city of Detroit than a lot of people.”

This is the first meeting between the Yankees and Tigers in 2010 - New York won five of six last season - but the clubs certainly aren’t lacking for familiarity. Just a month after the Yankees won their 27th World Series title, they acquired All-Star center fielder Curtis Granderson from Detroit in a three-team deal that sent top prospect Austin Jackson to the Tigers.

That move left little room in the outfield for Damon, who hit .285 with 77 homers from 2006-2009 with the Yankees and the two-time All-Star is now splitting time between left field and designated hitter in Detroit.

“Personally, I had four great years (in New York) and you can never take away the championship,” Damon, who’s hitting .294, told MLB’s official website. “They went a different way, and so did I. Both places are happy with how things are going.”

While Granderson’s return to Detroit is on hold due to a groin injury, the Tigers are certainly happy with his successor in center. Jackson has 22 hits in his last 46 at-bats and leads the AL in average (.371), a point ahead of teammate Miguel Cabrera and they are 32-14 at home in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

New York also signed Marcus Thames in the offseason after the outfielder played in Detroit from 2004-09. He’s batting .394 with a homer and four RBIs in 13 games with his new club who is 71-38 against other teams with winning records.

Jackson had two hits and scored twice Sunday, but Max Scherzer - who came over from Arizona in the Granderson trade - was roughed up again in a 7-4 loss at Cleveland.

The Yankees had won six straight heading into Sunday’s finale at Boston but suffered a rare lopsided loss. A.J. Burnett allowed nine runs in 4 1/3 innings as New York fell 9-3, leaving them 21-31 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in road games having won three of four since 2008.

That poor outing spoiled Alex Rodriguez’s 586th career homer, which tied him with Frank Robinson for seventh place. “It’s good,” said Rodriguez, who’s hitting .375 (9 for 24) in May. “I’ve said always that when I retire I’ll look back on those things.”

Rodriguez doesn’t have a hit in three career at-bats against Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.99 ERA, 1.502 WHIP), who is showing signs of progress after making just 14 starts the past two seasons. Willis pitched six shutout innings against the Twins to earn his first win April 29 and retired 12 straight Tuesday at Minnesota after allowing six of the first 10 batters to reach. He didn’t receive a decision, giving up three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-3 loss.

Willis hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2006 with Florida and is 12-25 (-20.5 Units) against the ML vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a contest in his career. (Team's Record)

The left-hander will be opposed by Sergio Mitre (0-0, 2.79, 0.928), who’s making a spot start while Andy Pettitte recovers from left elbow inflammation. Mitre was 3-3 with a 7.16 in nine starts last season, and he’s expected to be limited to 70 pitches in his first career appearance against Detroit.

Sportsbook.com has New York as -130 ML favorites with total Ov10 and they are 115-52 as a favorite of -110 or higher and 8-0 OVER after three consecutive games versus a division rival this year. The Tigers are 30-15 at Comerica Park when the money line is +125 to -125 and is 24-11 OVER at same location vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.
This series opener of this four game series is on ESPN at 7:05 Eastern for Monday Night Baseball.
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Cashin' Underdogs

MLB UNDERDOGS - WHO'S MAKING MONEY?
In our 20-plus years of handicapping, we have always had the philosophy in baseball that underdogs are the way to go. Most of my plays throughout the season are small favorites and underdogs.

Occasionally we use a "higher" favorite, however we’re in the belief that in the long run those plays can get you in trouble. You need to win such a high percentage of those types of games that just a few losses can really hurt. That's why we stay away from large favorites for the most part.

We would much rather try and target an "undervalued" dog and know that at plus-150 we only need to win over 40 percent of those plays to make a profit. It’s a much more comfortable situation with that scenario as opposed to laying minus-150 and hoping to hit 60 percent or more of those selections to come out on top.

We like to keep track throughout the season of how teams do as an underdog. This list changes daily but this is how it looks as of Friday, May 7.

Right now, just over half of the MLB teams this year have made a profit so far when tabbed as an underdog.

Here they are...

ROI = Return on Investment.
That is a simple calculation where I take the total money won by a team this year as an underdog (based on $100 per game) and divide it by the total amount of money wagered on a team as an underdog (at $100 per game).

For example, Washington has been an underdog 26 times (thus $2600 wagered on them this year as a dog) and they are currently +$900 as a dog (profit) thus their ROI would be 34.6% which is great. Or $900 (profit as a dog) divided by $2600 (total wagered) = .346 or 34.6%.

Tampa Bay Rays - 7 games as a dog - 5-2 record - +$415 profit - ROI = 59%

Philadelphia Phillies - 7 games as a dog - 5-2 record - +$400 profit - ROI = 57%

New York Yankees - 3 games as a dog - 2-1 record - +$150 profit - ROI = 50%

Washington Nationals - 26 games as a dog - 14-12 record - +$900 profit - ROI = 34%

Milwaukee Brewers - 11 games as a dog - 6-5 record - +$315 profit - ROI = 28%

Minnesota Twins - 11 games as a dog - 6-5 record - +$180 profit - ROI = 16%

Kansas City Royals - 25 games as a dog - 11-14 record - +$380 profit - ROI = 15%

Texas Rangers - 12 games as a dog - 6-6 record - +$160 profit - ROI = 13%

San Diego Padres - 19 games as a dog - 10-9 record - +$260 profit - ROI = 13%

New York Mets - 16 games as a dog - 8-8 record - +$190 profit - ROI = 11%

Pittsburgh Pirates - 26 games as a dog - 11-15 record - +$260 profit - ROI = 10%

St. Louis Cardinals - 4 games as a dog - 2-2 record - +$40 profit - ROI = 10%

Toronto Blue Jays - 16 games as a dog - 7-9 record - +$130 profit - ROI = 8%

Cincinnati Reds - 17 games as a dog - 8-9 record - +$130 profit - ROI = 7%

Detroit Tigers - 15 games as a dog - 7-8 record - +$90 profit - ROI = 6%

San Francisco Giants - 9 games as a dog - 4-5 record - +$25 profit - ROI = 2%

We realize it's still early in the season and these numbers can change quickly, however it's something that you should keep an eye on throughout the season. It can give us an idea of who some of the solid underdog teams might be as the season wears on.

We like to look for a solid underdog team, with a solid underdog pitcher slated to start. If that team is then playing an overrated team or more importantly pitcher, it can be worth a long look as a potential play.

These are just a few of several different factors that come into play during my decision making process. These underdog charts simply provide me with a good starting point.
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Diamond Trends - Monday

Rays at Angels – The Angels are 8-0 since April 10, 2009 as a home dog after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $910. The Angels are 6-0 since April 10, 2009 as a home dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $675

Braves at Brewers – The Braves are 7-0 since May 06, 2009 as a road 140+ favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700

Marlins at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-4 since September 30, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $705 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-5 since July 20, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts vs. a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $715 when playing against.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 8-1 since October 02, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $990. The Dodgers are 0-4 since September 13, 2009 when Chad Billingsley starts as a road favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $535 when playing against.

Nationals at Mets – The Mets are 8-0 since April 27, 2009 when John Maine starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $840. The Mets are 6-0 since April 17, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

Reds at Pirates – The Reds are 5-0 since May 01, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $625. The Reds are 4-0 since April 14, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $640. The Pirates are 0-8 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em vs. a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Pirates are 4-0 since July 20, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $545.

Blue Jays at Red Sox – The Blue Jays are 5-0 since September 28, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $695.

Phillies at Rockies – The Rockies are 8-0 since May 29, 2009 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $835. The Rockies are 0-5 since April 06, 2010 when Greg Smith starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $540 when playing against.

Yankees at Tigers – The Yankees are 0-5 since August 17, 2009 on the road after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $695 when playing against. The Tigers are 6-0 since August 01, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $635
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