All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.62 over BOSTON http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Tough to ignore the Blue Jays at this price especially when you consider how warm they are and that the Red Sox are coming off a three game set with the Yanks. Furthermore, the Jays are striving away from home with a 12-4 record and after yesterday’s win they’ve now won seven of eight. If Brandon Morrow can avoid walking people he’ll be in very good shape. He’s struck out eight batters in four straight games and overall his BAA is just .223. Walks have killed this guy but he’s walked two batters or less in three of his past five starts. He also has 42 K’s in 33.2 innings and again, he has to get ahead of hitter’s and you can be damn sure that’s what he’s working on. There’s no denying that Morrow has great stuff and huge potential. John Lackey could be tough on any given day. He doesn’t strike out as many as he used to but doesn’t need to, as his groundball % is consistently high every year. He’s had just one bad outing this season against the Rays but he’s also faced the Orioles twice and the Angels. He’s thrown a lot of pitches over his last three starts and after beating his former team in his last start, perhaps we can catch him in a bit of a letdown spot here. Anyway, this choice is much more about taking back this tag on Morrow and the Jays than it is about going against Lackey. Play: Toronto +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Florida +1.41 over CHICAGO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Ted Lilly had off-season arthroscopic shoulder and knee surgeries and thus far, he’s shown he has not fully recovered or at least he’s lost something. He’s already allowed four bombs in 17 innings and his one start at home was a complete disaster. He’s never had good numbers against the Marlins and that’s when he appeared a lot sharper than he does right now. Lilly has allowed 10 runs in 17 innings or work and let’s not ignore who he pitches for. The Cubbies are one of the most unappealing big favorites in the league. They lose more than they win, they’re pen is a mess, Lou Pinella doesn’t know whether he’s coming or going and they’ve lost five of its last six games to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Marlins aren’t going much better but they’ve lost five of six to San Fran and Washington and they’re not laying 3/2. They’ve also been unlucky, as they’re losing by a run or two while the Cubbies are frequently getting slaughtered. In fact, three of the Cubs last six losses were by scores of 13-5, 11-1 and 14-7. Nate Robertson is a roll of the dice but he’s had four decent outings that include a game Philadelphia in which he did not allow a run and pitched into the seventh inning and he and the Marlins are definitely worth a play in this spot at this price. Play: Florida +1.41 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>MILWAUKEE +1.22 over Atlanta http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Braves remain one of the most overvalued teams in the majors and that’s likely because of a great history over the past two decades. They’ve been on the decline now for at least two years and they certainly don’t have much appeal as the chalk here. For one, Jason Heyward and Chipper Jones missed yesterday and they’re likely to sit again today. Over its last four games the Braves are hitting a combined .172 and that includes three games at hitter-friendly Philadelphia. Tommy Hanson is good and he’s the only reason the Braves are favored here but the Brewers had great success against him last year when they tagged him for eight runs in 13 innings over two starts. Also note that the Brewers are seeing beach balls right now and in fact, they’ve scored 51 times over its last five games and that includes back-to-back, 11-run outbursts at the always tough on hitters, Dodger Stadium. Doug Davis has run into a ton of hard luck and has pitched so much better than his numbers suggest. He’s not walking nearly as many people as he has in the past and in fact, has 12 walks and 28 K’s in 27.1 innings. He also has a very high groundball percentage and a close look reveals an incredibly high infield hit percentage of 10.2% (The league norm is about 6%). Furthermore, the Braves are 1-5 on the road against lefties and own the worst numbers in the league against left-handed pitchers in just about every hitting category. Milwaukee is hot while the Braves are cold and banged up badly and it’s not just physical. Play: Milwaukee +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Philadelphia/COLORADO over 10½ http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>This one might produce 30 runs. The winds are not unfavorable, as it’s blowing out to right-center at 15MPH. Greg Smith has an 8.31 ERA at Coors this season over three starts covering 13 innings. In those 13 innings the opposition has gone yard on him four times and his BAA is .346. In his last start at Coors the Rockies lost 12-11 to the D-Backs and he sure does not get a break here against the Phillies. Smith also has lousy control and walks way too many batters to have any success. Kyle Kendricks is almost as untrustworthy as Smith. He’s brutal to begin with but at Coors Field he’s even worse. He’s made two career starts at this park and has surrendered 18 hits and two bombs over 11 frames. The Rockies hit .367 against him and his ERA over those two starts was 6.55. Play: Colorado/Philadelphia over 10½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
