All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Florida +1.02 over CHICAGO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>As long as the Cubbies continue to be favored in games that they’re more likely to lose than win, it’s recommended to keep betting against them. Randy Wells is having a very rough time at the moment and he’s throwing for club that’s also having a rough time. That combination of rough and rougher is not one that is worth laying juice in. Wells has made six starts and three were decent while the other three were anything but, including his last two. His strong starts all came on the road when he faced the Mets, Braves and Brewers, all struggling offenses. He was rocked by the D-Backs, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, not exactly the cream of the crop. Wells has allowed 42 hits in 33.1 innings for a BAA of .302. In two home games vs the Pirates and Brewers his ERA is 6.57 and his BAA is .340. He does have good command but his fastball tops off at just 89MPH and he could be losing confidence in his changeup and/or slider because of what has transpired over his last two starts. Ricky Nolasco has pitched in New York, Colorado and in Philadelphia and in those three road starts his BAA is .188 and his ERA is 1.90. He dominated both Philly and Colorado in two of the toughest parks on pitchers in the majors. He, too, has shown great command with just eight walks in 40 innings. He’s also struck out 32. The Cubbies have lost seven of eight and against the Marlins they have eight wins in the past 25 meetings. The Cubbies are making a lot of pitchers look good this season. Play: Florida +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Washington +1.28 over NY METS http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Nats are 18-14 and just two games back of the Phillies. They’ve won three in a row and they’re not going away. They do a lot of things right and they’ll send out Scott Olsen here, a guy that has been dealing it the past three games. In fact, Olsen has gone 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA over that three-game stretch. The guy is throwing BB’s out there and has 20 K’s and just four walks over his last 20 innings. He’s always had the talent but his biggest problem was his state of mind, as he used to get rattled easily and was not a pleasant guy at any time. That has changed completely and he came into this year with a new attitude and it’s paying off. Olsen looks great out there and the line-up he’ll see here is not to be feared. Jonathan Niese has great potential but he’s also been living somewhat of a charmed life this year. In six starts this season the league is hitting .315 off Niese but an 80% strand rate has masked that. That 80% strand rate simply cannot last and that’s all there is to it. That’s not to say he can’t throw a good game because he definitely can. He throws strikes and that alone gives him a chance. However, Olsen is dominating right now, the Nats are winning games and the tag and value is on the visitor. Play: Washington +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>San Diego +1.45 over SAN FRANCISCO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>After six starts Barry Zito is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.49. He’s a perfect example of why the NL is such an inferior league to the AL. Zito is an average pitcher that is on a better run right now than a Kenyan track team but it can’t last too much longer. Zito has four pitches (fastball, slider, curve and change) and utilizes all of them but his fastball tops off at 85 MPH. He’s tricky and brings a wealth of experience but his stuff just isn’t that good, his change of speeds is and that’s what allows him to win games. However, the Padres are 5-1 against lefties and if Zito goes back to his usual form of falling behind hitters, he’s always going to be in big trouble. The best pitchers in the league seldom go on 6-0 runs and Zito is not even close to being one of the best. Wade Leblanc made two starts vs the Giants last season and went 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA after allowing just six hits in 14 innings. This season he’s 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA although he has had some fortune on his side. Still, he has great command, as his 20 K’s and six walks will attest to. The bottom line here once again is value, as the Padres are 19-12 and they’re 4-0 when Leblanc starts. Play: San Diego +1.45 (Risking 2 units).
