MLB 5/11 Plays

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Upper Medium
Indians +112
Some decent value on the Indians. The Royals are a bad team with a bad record. I don’t see any reason for this to change. Their offense is anemic, and their starting pitcher is sub par and too high variance to support it. They make for a dangerous favorite. Indians are underachieving and have upside potential off current form. Nice lineup edge against the Royals, especially against right handed pitchers. Westbrook is off to a slow start. His walk rate is up and strikeout rate is down. This is concerning, but a good forward looking indicator is to monitor his groundball rate. If that is down, then there is something seriously wrong. It is not. His FIP suggest improvement off current form as well. His past success against the Royals gives him a good opportunity to get things back on track tonight. Bannister makes for a much better underdog than favorite. He is too high variance to support this price. He is coming off a bad outing, and has been known to have bad outings in clusters. There are no derivative numbers that suggest improvement off current numbers.
<o:p> </o:p>
Marlins +118
I have been saying it since the beginning of the season. The Cubs are not that good. They are even playing worse than their true potential as well, yet the market continues to price them as a good team. The market likes well, but his last two starts should be concerning, and a premium should not be priced on his arm, especially on a downtick and facing a tough lineup. His slider is not nearly as effective as it was last year, which does not bode terribly well for his chances against a solid fastball hitting team. He is backed by a bullpen that lacks depth. The Cubs lineup is underachieving, as some of their veteran players are in a prolong slump. Although they should improve off current form, a red flag has been raised as a material downgrade in their true worth should be reviewed. Nolasco is a pretty decent pitcher and is a pretty decent option as an underdog due to his high variance. He has pitched well on the road so far, and has had past success against the Cubs.
 

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BG what do you think about SD....Giants off a road trip...thanks
 

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I like them. Not sure what size play they will end up being, but Zito is priced for perfection.
 

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You have great insight BG.... How come no love for the braves tonight? Especially with Braun being out? I thought for sure you'd have a play on em
 

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You have great insight BG.... How come no love for the braves tonight? Especially with Braun being out? I thought for sure you'd have a play on em
Lower medium play on the Braves. You have two undervalued teams offsetting each other in this one. Market wants nothing to do with the Brewers at home right now (4-9), despite no fundamental reason to struggle in this park.
 

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It seems like you are using FIP a lot more than previous years.

What time are you likely to post your other potential play? So i can be sure to check.

Thanks for the write-ups and plays.
 

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It seems like you are using FIP a lot more than previous years.

What time are you likely to post your other potential play? So i can be sure to check.

Thanks for the write-ups and plays.
Just talking about it more.

The only two games left that may have a UM or large play is the Dodgers/Dbacks, and Padres/Giants. The former, I am waiting for my order to be filled (2 cents away) to justify a UM. The latter, I am waiting for the lineups and valuation adjustments.
 

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Whew, just got here in the nick of time. Played the early games and will check back as time allows. Thanks and GL, BG!
 

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Thanks for the Picks

Buffet, Love the indepth explanations of each bet & love the fact that you are not motivated to pick overwhelming favorites. Good Luck & thanks for your picks.
 

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Upper Medium
Dbacks -161
Rarely do I go from betting one in a series for a decent sized bet to their opponents for a decent sized bet the next game. But the market may be getting ahead of themselves with Ely after his solid outing last week. Ely is crafty and different. I am concerned that the more he pitches, the more information there is out on how to capitalize on him. The Dodgers lineup is simply not scoring enough runs right now to compliment this risk on the mound. He looked much more comfortable pitching on his home mound than he did in his road start. Haren is on the cheap right now. He has underachieved, but has given little reason to think he will not return to his true form. He now has three straight QS under his belt, and past success against the opponents lineup, especially last year. The DBacks have bullpen problems. The best quick fix for a bullpen problem is to have your starter eat up innings. Haren is one of the best in baseball at that.
 

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Padres +132
Zito is priced for perfection right now. Although his mechanics change and big salary that put pressure on him the last couple of years seem to have improved his true worth this year compared to the past two years, his current form is not sustainable, and material regression is on the cards for him here on out. I like the lineup the Padres are sending out tonight. It is really built to hit the southpaw. The Padres know Zito well, and actually roughed him up last year. The Padres are overachieving, but are a team that thrives off of confidence, something that they have right now. The market is also pricing them for as an underachieving subpar team during their road games. You have to like Leblanc as a nice sized underdog until he gives you a reason not to like him. He is actually coming off his worst start of the season last week, a start where he allowed two runs. He is eating up right handed hitters, and the Giants lack talent from the left side. Past success against the Giants is also something he can feed off of. Bullpen edge to the Padres.
 

Snake
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Messages
907
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Thanks and GL, BG. The comment about San Diego's confidence rings true for me, I remember them running off something like 10 straight at one point last year even though they weren't very good overall.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 26, 2008
Messages
1,003
Tokens
Missed the second profitable day in a row. I need to get my betting schedule in order.
 

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