All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Florida +1.13 over CHICAGO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Until the Cubbies show us something different there’s no reason to back off against them. They lost again yesterday to run its current losing streak to four and overall they’ve lost seven of eight. Carlos Silva is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA but that’s a mirage that’s not going to last. Silva is a career stiff that is still a stiff but has been extremely fortunate. He basically has two pitches, a change and a fastball that tops off at 89MPH. Over his last two games he’s surrendered 18 hits and nine runs in 10 innings and that’s the Carlos Silva we’ve all come to expect. In two May starts, Silva’s BAA is .400 and his ERA is 8.10. Silva’s strand rate for the year is 78% and that, too, cannot last. This guy is an implosion waiting to happen every time he takes the hill. Win or lose, Silva as a favorite, pitching for the Cubs is a wager that should not be made. By contrast, Chris Volstad has been outstanding in his last two starts allowing three runs and eight hits in 16 innings. He’s had one bad start this season and it came in Colorado. He has yielded three runs or less in his other five starts and has pitched into the sixth inning or longer in all of those. Volstad has a BAA of .207 and if you take away that one start in Colorado, his BAA is under a deuce. Incidentally, Volstad has pitched twice at Wrigley and in 13 innings he allowed just nine hits, four runs, struck out 11 and walked two for an ERA of 2.77 and a BAA of .191. Play: Florida +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>Los Angeles –1½ +1.39 over ARIZONA http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Diamondbacks are reeling big time. Arizona has lost the first five games of a six-game homestand, scoring two runs or fewer in each contest and striking out 49 times. The Dodgers are heating up and despite an average record they still have one of the best teams in the NL and one of the more potent line-ups. The Dodgers got off to a rough start and it happens but they’ve woken up and they’re dangerous. Edwin Jackson has lost three straight games. Over that stretch he’s allowed 35 base runners in 13.1 innings. He’s also allowed seven jacks in 39 innings and this park is not a friendly one to struggling pitchers. His strikeouts are way down, he’s 1-4 and his ERA is 7.32. Meanwhile, Hiroki Kuroda is a groundball machine and that bodes well in a desert start. He had a nice start against the Diamondbacks earlier this season (7 IP, 7 SO, 0 BB, 2 ER), and he has an outstanding match-up history with Arizona hitters. Things surely don’t figure to get better for the Snakes here. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.39 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>Cincinnati +1.01 over PITTSBURGH http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Homer Bailey is an enigma to be sure. Here’s a guy that continues to show flashes of brilliance and than throws a stinker. He throws a lot of stinkers and perhaps he just does not have the mental toughness to be as good as his potential. Having said that, he’s been great against the Pirates with a 4-0 record and a 2.25 ERA over four starts. Furthermore, the Reds are hot while the Pirates are cold and that has more influence on this choice than the starters. The Reds have gone yard 12 times over its last six games with an off-the-charts OPS of .862. Zach Duke is a bad pitcher on a bad team. His career BAA is .302 and this year he’s right on form with a BAA of .305. He has a disturbing WHIP of 1.71 and he’s actually more hittable this year than in previous years. The velocity on his fastball is perhaps the lowest in the majors and the only good thing about him is he’s left-handed. However, the Reds are 6-3 vs southpaws and Duke’s numbers over the years in day games are actually worse than in night games and this one goes off at 12:35 PM EST. Lastly, the Pirates pen has been used extensively and an extensively used bullpen is rarely effective. Play: Cincinnati +1.01 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Seattle +1.06 over BALTIMORE http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>How can you not play the Mariners here? Two garbage pitchers face off but at least the Mariners pitcher is a lefty and the O’s are 0-3 at home vs lefties and 2-8 overall. Ryan Rowland Smith has awful numbers right across the board but they’re certainly no worse than Brad Bergeson’s. In fact, Bergeson has had no strikeouts in two of his last three games and is coughing up 2.5 HR’s per nine innings. Bergeson’s ERA at home is 9.95 and his ERA against the Mariners this year is 13.50 and that game was in Seattle. The O’s have scored two runs over its last three games, they’re 9-24 overall and anytime they’re favored it’s absolutely worth going against them. The Mariners were everybody’s sleeper pick to have a great season but that has not materialized yet. However, they came in here and beat the O’s last night 5-1, they’ve won two in a row and they’ve scored 13 runs over those two games. Orioles favored? Are you kidding? Play Seattle +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>Oakland +1.15 over TEXAS http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Dave Holland makes his season debut and does so only because of an injury to Matt Harrison. Holland was rocked in 138.1 innings in 2009, when he gave up 26 home runs en route to posting a 6.12 ERA. He faced the A’s three times last season without much success, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Holland making his first start of the season laying juice is very unappealing indeed. The A’s have won three in a row, five of six and they beat a tough Colby Lewis last night. Gio Gonzalez has some nasty stuff and while he’s hit and miss, he’s getting better all the time. He’s pitching deeper into games and has a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts. The Rangers have had nothing but trouble against lefties this year and it’s unlikely they’ll turn things around against this tough southpaw. The value here is definitely on the pooch. Play: Oakland +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
