MLB 5/12 Plays

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{mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> Will add later as lineups come out
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Red Sox -104
Lineup information just took an undervalued Red Sox team and made them even that much more undervalued, as I have materially upgraded their intrinsic value. As the Blue Jays and Marcum continue to overachieve, the market is continue to leave value on the table by going against them, even if going against them means backing a hot Red Sox team. Wakefield is a question mark, as is all knuckleballers, as you never know if the knuckler will work that particular day. Day games are better for the pitch. The Blue Jays hitters have a lifetime 133 at bats against Wakefield, yet managed just one home run. The hot hitting Buck and dangerous hitter Lind out of the lineup. Molina is one of the replacements, who has struggled against Wafefield. The Red Sox bullpen is deep and well rested. I am not sold on Marcum. His well hit ratio is continue to go up, and is coming off a start where he allowed 2 home runs. He has struggled in day games in his career. The Red Sox lineup is starting to heat up, and are playing with a lot more confidence than they were a couple weeks back.
<o:p> </o:p>
White Sox +132
The Twins are becoming a real pricey team, especially when they play at home. Danks is simply too good of a pitcher that is in top form to give this kind of implied win probability to. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts so far this season, despite facing this same Twins, lineup, the Rays, Jays twice and Yankees. He hasn’t shown many signs of material regression coming, and his line drive rate is at a very impressive percentage. Teams are not hitting him hard. Although he has struggled against the Twins in the past and some of their key hitters, during his last four starts against them, three have been quality ones, suggesting improvement off past struggles. Pavano is pitching over his head right now. Although I can not find any derivative numbers that suggest overachievement so far this season, his fastball value is materially up this year compared to years past, something I see no fundamental reason for, and probably can be attributed to randomness. The White Sox are a good fastball hitting team, and if regression comes from this pitch, expect more of recent year Pavano in the near future. The Twins bullpen is overrated.
 

Snake
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Since some of us like to guess along with you, I'm kind of expecting a call on the Marlins.:toast:
 

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Believe Boston is 2-7 this year in day games while Toronto is 6-6
 

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Since some of us like to guess along with you, I'm kind of expecting a call on the Marlins.:toast:
Locked in as a medium play. Somewhat surprising. A potential sign that the Cubs as a go-against play may be slowly coming to an end.
 

Snake
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Surprising that I'd guess correctly? I follow streaks and the Cubs are favored against a decent pitcher despite losing 4 straight.
 

Snake
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Taking it that Florida is not strong enough of a play to post, and will pass. Boy, lots of different game times in all the time zones, will need to be on my toes to keep up.d1g1t
 

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Thanks BG...getting killed in sides and totals in NBA..half totals are keeping me from the grave.....question on money line moves in bases.....if you see a favorite open at say- 130and close at say -108 or plus 105...would the bet be on the other team????that much of a correction ???? warrant attention...thanks
 

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Thanks BG...getting killed in sides and totals in NBA..half totals are keeping me from the grave.....question on money line moves in bases.....if you see a favorite open at say- 130and close at say -108 or plus 105...would the bet be on the other team????that much of a correction ???? warrant attention...thanks

I don't blanket bet line moves in baseball. It is rare to see an opener move that much this late in the season without material information coming out that would effect the fair value of the line. As a baseball game approaches first pitch, a baseball line approaches fair value. You can not validate a bet on either side with the information you supplied. That is not to rule out their being overthrows in the marketplace with line moves.
 

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Large
Rockies -101
Once again Moyer and the Phillies are coming with an inflated price tag. Moyer is on an uptick. Not sure if this is an ideal matchup to continue this uptick. He has struggled against the Rockies in the past, including a horrible start against him last year. He has also struggled in Coors, which is to no surprise. Being a flyball pitcher vulnerable to the long ball, pitching in Coors against a powerful Phillies lineup can do damager to your production. He is a soft thrower, which also does not bode well for pitching in Coors. The Phillies bullpen is sub par and used some good arms in game one. Hammels is a question mark after a slow start and coming off an injury. But having a groundball pitcher is an asset in this match up. He also doesn’t rely on the fastball much, which is also a good thing when facing this lineup. The Rockies have a better bullpen. They also did a good job limiting the pitch count on their bullpen arms in game 1.
 

Snake
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
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Thanks and GL, BG. I know I'm pushing my luck since I got the tough win in game 1, but I'll get my broom out.!~~~!
 

New member
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Nov 26, 2008
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Finally, I get to one before the game starts. Any opinion on the 10:15 game? I have a small position on San Diego.
 

Snake
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Messages
907
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I know you didn't ask me Tim, but Cain has been pitching absolutely lights out for SF. The price is very high so I don't fault you for taking the dog.
 

New member
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Dec 19, 2005
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Finally, I get to one before the game starts. Any opinion on the 10:15 game? I have a small position on San Diego.
Good thing you missed my plays this morning.
I like the Padres again tonight. Simply too much value on them on the road with the way they have been playing. Not sure the size yet.
BOL.
 

Snake
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Messages
907
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Or the umbrella Munson. Rain delay right now.
:lolBIG:They've had terrible weather there yesterday and today. Wouldn't surprise me to see snow showers or sleet out there. Craziest temperature fluctuations in the country, I think. GL once they get underway.:toast:
 

New member
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Jul 8, 2009
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Just so you all know i gave buffettgambler that Rockies pick.
smug_russell.gif
 

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