MLB 5/13 Plays

buffettgambler · May 13, 2010

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Upper Medium
Mariners -124
Lineup play here, as I deem the market not discounting the Orioles lineup changes to efficiency. Today’s lineup is worth materially less than it would be if they had all their starters in. The backend of the lineup has too much deadweight. The market was putting a slight premium on most of Felix’s starts out of the gate. Although I have a slight downgrade in his worth off of current form, the market appears to be overreacting to his last two starts. There appears to be no underlying injury that caused his back to back poor outings, and if it is a mechanical flaw, my guess is that it has been worked on. Felix has gotten progressively better against the Orioles, and now is starting to be backed by a lineup that is starting to see the ball a bit better at the plate. I am not sold off of Millwood and he makes a good go-against on an uptick. He had an excellent April last year, before tailing off in May and finishing off the season poorly. His worst start this season was against the Mariners. This comes to no surprise, as he has struggled against them in the past, including a really bad year against them last year. He is backed by the worst pen in baseball. Although he can eat up innings, this does not look like an ideal start for him to go deep in.

Stabler12 · May 13, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. Will hope to get lucky and catch a late play tonight, as it is golf day and the sun is finally out!

Stabler12 · May 13, 2010

On second thought, I will make time to check back around 1:30 at the house right before I head to the links.:toast:

RayLuca · May 13, 2010

Good Luck today

buffettgambler · May 13, 2010

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Large
Padres +152
The Padres and I are going for the sweep here. Inflation is penetrating the Giants line from many angles. Firstly, the Giants were overvalued the first two games, which usually leads to an overvaluation in the third game. Secondly, the market is bidding them up thinking they can not be swept at home against a team like the Padres. Thirdly is the Sanchez factor and his domination and no hit bid against the Padres. But I will reiterate it again. The Giants offense is overrated, and their best hitters is slumping badly. Although Sanchez has had success against the Padres in the past, this is not a particular good match up for him, as he is his own worst enemy, and the walks lead to his failure. For a team that struggles to get hits and manufactures runs, walk propensity is a magnified liability. The Padres lineup they are putting forth matches up well against southpaws. The Giants will be without Molina today. Latos looks solid on the mound. He has had one bad start all season, is coming off the best start of the season, and already shutout the Giants this season. He is also backed by the best bullpen in baseball.

IrishTim · May 13, 2010

Missed your thread today, as usual, but was already on both myself. That was some collapse by Seattle.

Any plays in the two late games?

buffettgambler · May 13, 2010

IrishTim said:
Missed your thread today, as usual, but was already on both myself. That was some collapse by Seattle.

Any plays in the two late games?

Nothing in the UM or large range. BOL

Stabler12 · May 13, 2010

Congrats on the Padres, sorry I missed it.

hno:

IrishTim · May 13, 2010

Thanks, BG. I have a "medium" position on Washington +182 at MB.

Munson - you get my note at the other place?

sean93 · May 13, 2010

Buffet what is your ytd record?

buffettgambler · May 13, 2010

sean93 said:
Buffet what is your ytd record?

No clue what my posting record is. I average about 11 non fully hedged bets a day in baseball, all different amounts. That's the record I track and concerned about.

TheHungerForMore · May 13, 2010

sean93 said:
Buffet what is your ytd record?

I'm up about 8 units on his large plays and around 2units on upper medium. And through PM's 4ish units on small/medium plays.

IrishTim · May 13, 2010

buffettgambler said:
No clue what my posting record is. I average about 11 non fully hedged bets a day in baseball, all different amounts. That's the record I track and concerned about.

Are these all on the ML? That's impressive. I'm doing around 4-5 straight MLs and 3 totals a day and I still feel like I'm overestimating my edge in a lot of these spots.

TheHungerForMore · May 13, 2010

BG = action junkie

Stabler12 · May 13, 2010

IrishTim said:
Thanks, BG. I have a "medium" position on Washington +182 at MB.

Munson - you get my note at the other place?

Not yet, I just got done watching Survivor with the family, I'll go check now.:toast:

TheHungerForMore · May 13, 2010

Only squares watch "Survivor".

IrishTim · May 13, 2010

Action junkie isn't exactly the phrase that comes to mind when I think of BG.

No problem, Munson - nothing better than TV time with people you love. My favorite hour of the week is when my girlfriend and I watch 24 every Monday night.

TheHungerForMore · May 13, 2010

IrishTim said:
Action junkie isn't exactly the phrase that comes to mind when I think of BG.

No problem, Munson - nothing better than TV time with people you love. My favorite hour of the week is when my girlfriend and I watch 24 every Monday night.

It was a joke. There no such thing as action junkie when you know what you're doing and have the edge over odd makers/market.

Stabler12 · May 13, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Only squares watch "Survivor".

Guilty as charged.:lol:

Stabler12 · May 13, 2010

I hear 24 is a great show, but honestly I only got involved in Survivor because it's the only show we all watch together. That, and sometimes America's Funniest Home Videos. :103631605