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Upper Medium
Mariners -124
Lineup play here, as I deem the market not discounting the Orioles lineup changes to efficiency. Today’s lineup is worth materially less than it would be if they had all their starters in. The backend of the lineup has too much deadweight. The market was putting a slight premium on most of Felix’s starts out of the gate. Although I have a slight downgrade in his worth off of current form, the market appears to be overreacting to his last two starts. There appears to be no underlying injury that caused his back to back poor outings, and if it is a mechanical flaw, my guess is that it has been worked on. Felix has gotten progressively better against the Orioles, and now is starting to be backed by a lineup that is starting to see the ball a bit better at the plate. I am not sold off of Millwood and he makes a good go-against on an uptick. He had an excellent April last year, before tailing off in May and finishing off the season poorly. His worst start this season was against the Mariners. This comes to no surprise, as he has struggled against them in the past, including a really bad year against them last year. He is backed by the worst pen in baseball. Although he can eat up innings, this does not look like an ideal start for him to go deep in.
Upper Medium
Mariners -124
Lineup play here, as I deem the market not discounting the Orioles lineup changes to efficiency. Today’s lineup is worth materially less than it would be if they had all their starters in. The backend of the lineup has too much deadweight. The market was putting a slight premium on most of Felix’s starts out of the gate. Although I have a slight downgrade in his worth off of current form, the market appears to be overreacting to his last two starts. There appears to be no underlying injury that caused his back to back poor outings, and if it is a mechanical flaw, my guess is that it has been worked on. Felix has gotten progressively better against the Orioles, and now is starting to be backed by a lineup that is starting to see the ball a bit better at the plate. I am not sold off of Millwood and he makes a good go-against on an uptick. He had an excellent April last year, before tailing off in May and finishing off the season poorly. His worst start this season was against the Mariners. This comes to no surprise, as he has struggled against them in the past, including a really bad year against them last year. He is backed by the worst pen in baseball. Although he can eat up innings, this does not look like an ideal start for him to go deep in.