Need help from Therx!!!!!

Justathought · May 14, 2010

I saw this prop bet in MLB that is a "general everyday bet" and I want you guys to help me to check if my math is right on this. The bet is "Will there be any game today that the total is exactly 17 runs" Yes, is +240 and No, is -300.

I have painstakinly checked everyday of bases this year. Of the 42 days of baseball played there have been exactly 6 days where a game had an exact total of 17 runs. That tells me that there is exactly a 1/7 chance a game will have 17 runs in any given week. If I can assume this trend to continue ( although I need to research last year to get a larger sample than 7 weeks) then I could, in theory, play this bet everyday and be +300 every week(7 days) assuming I am playing NO risking 3 units to win 1 unit. ( I should, in theory, win this bet 6 times a week and lose once a week +600 - 300 = +300....Is my logic flawed????? I'm gonna try this for shits and giggles and if it starts failing miserably I will stop after 6 weeks.....

Day 1 (No, Exactly 17 runs scored) Risking 3 units to win 1

Good luck
JAT

Betallsports · May 14, 2010

Why in your Right Mind would you want to Bet this Prop ?? I'm sure there are Better Props out there that will pay the same Odds.

Better off Trying your Luck with This................

roundrobin11 · May 14, 2010

sounds right i guess. keep us posted on how it works out!

Justathought · May 14, 2010

Betallsports said:
Why in your Right Mind would you want to Bet this Prop ?? I'm sure there are Better Props out there that will pay the same Odds.

Better off Trying your Luck with This................

:lol: You're probably right about that....Just looking for an easy quick fix as an experiment......Just seems the juice is actually low at -300....Seems to be me that the odds of a game hitting 17 on the dot are pretty slim.....:smoking:

Betallsports · May 14, 2010

Yeah, kind of reminds me of this...............But GL !

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johnboland · May 14, 2010

How many possible combinations for an exact total of 17.
8+9
10+7
11+6
12+5
13+4
14+3
15+2
16+1
8 possbile combinations to win with yes for each game. I would think you factor that in somehow with the numbers of games played that particular day. 8 games played on Thursday for exmaple gives you 64 combinations of hitting 17. Let me think some more.

johnboland · May 14, 2010

But you also have to figure out how many combinations of scores existed that did not equal 17 and compare that with your 8 times the number of games played that particular day. This number may be in the hundreds so I would look for a day when you have two high ERA pitchers and or two teams with high team batting averages squaring off. I think your sample time of 1/7 is sufficent for this experiment and might would consider playing the NO six days a week risking the chalk and YES one day a week taking a stab at it when the matchups favored a high scoring game. Let me think some more.

johnboland · May 14, 2010

If you take the number of combinations of scores up to 16, if my math is correct, there are 70 possible combinations for a score under 17 including zeros. This is the number only up to 16 runs scored in a game. I am excluding combinations above 17. You have to mutiply 70 by the number of games that particular day. In our example 70 times 8 games on Thurday would equal 560 combinations for a NO verus 64 combinations for a YES. Let me think some more.

elriodeguyo · May 14, 2010

I think this is a really interesting idea, justathought. If you do it, definitely post the results. I don't think my book has this particular prop but I'm considering switching anyways...

john boland said:
How many possible combinations for an exact total of 17.
8+9
10+7
11+6
12+5
13+4
14+3
15+2
16+1
8 possbile combinations to win with yes for each game. I would think you factor that in somehow with the numbers of games played that particular day. 8 games played on Thursday for exmaple gives you 64 combinations of hitting 17. Let me think some more.

You forgot the opposite of each of these... Team 1 and Team 2 can score each number.... aka it should be:

8-9
9-8
7-10
10-7
etc.

Also, I think you forgot one possibility entirely.... 17-0 and 0-17.

Just saying.... if you keep thinking about this, maybe take that stuff into account.

johnboland · May 14, 2010

Only one combination of 8-8 will result in an extra inning ballgame and a chance to hit 17 total runs in extra innings assuming only one run comes acrros the plate. If you knew the percentage of 8-8 games 7-7 games and maybe even 6-6 games that went on to have a final of 17 total runs, it would give a good indication of what you actual chances are if a high scoring game goes extra innings. The more innings played, the more batters come up and the possibilty for more runs. Let me think so more.

johnboland · May 14, 2010

The opposite combinations 3-2 2-3 6-5 5-6 etc can have only one possible outcome for a final score of the game. If I counted the combination of 3-2 5-6 in the intial number of 70 why should you include it again? The cummulative total is the same. They both equal 5 and 11 respectively. You are right thogh about the 17-0 score which would take the number to nine to be mutiplied by number of games each particular day. If I am wrong please feel free to criticize.

Justathought · May 14, 2010

Hey guys,

Really appreciate the effort here....I took a larger sample ( 27 weeks from 2009) and the results are as follows.

Week # - Days a YES hit in that week
1- 3
2- 1
3- 0
4- 2
5- 2
6- 2
7- 4
8- 1
9- 2
10-2
11-3
12-3
13-2
14-0
15-0
16-3
17-1
18-5
19-3
20-1
21-3
22-0
23-2
24-2
25-2
26-2
27-2

Thus there were a total of 53 days in 2009 where there was an exact total of 17 out of 189 days of baseball ( playoffs excluded)...Thus a 28% chance of a YES is alot higher percentage than of the sample taken this year which has been 1/7 or 14.3% over 42 days in 2010.....At this rate the bet does NOT seem to have value as we would need to hit at 75% to break even......Of course if we could find ways to limit the play on days where we have a better chance for low scoring matchups then we could have some value.....

JAT

elriodeguyo · May 14, 2010

john boland said:
The opposite combinations 3-2 2-3 6-5 5-6 etc can have only one possible outcome for a final score of the game. If I counted the combination of 3-2 5-6 in the intial number of 70 why should you include it again? The cummulative total is the same. They both equal 5 and 11 respectively. You are right thogh about the 17-0 score which would take the number to nine to be mutiplied by number of games each particular day. If I am wrong please feel free to criticize.

You seem to be right, I was thinking about it in terms of what each team scored, but if we are just considering the outcome as a whole, which does make more sense, you don't need the opposite combinations as well.

Sorry to see this doesn't look profitable! I think it's really just a crapshoot, you can't even really base it on last year because scoring 17 is such a random thing to have happen.

Justathought · May 14, 2010

elriodeguyo said:
You seem to be right, I was thinking about it in terms of what each team scored, but if we are just considering the outcome as a whole, which does make more sense, you don't need the opposite combinations as well.

Sorry to see this doesn't look profitable! I think it's really just a crapshoot, you can't even really base it on last year because scoring 17 is such a random thing to have happen.

Yes, It does look like a crap shoot after all...Thanks for all the number crunching but in the end Betallsports is right.....Thanks for the movie clip....I love the pick a number game :lolBIG:

Justathought · May 14, 2010

Also.....looks like the Pitts / Cubs game might hit 17 in the first game of the day lol

johnboland · May 14, 2010

I think you have to home in on a game that has the potential to be 8-8 at the end of 9. I know from seeing scores everyday, Teams like the Mets and Marlins will get about 4 a piece. Nuthin fancy. Just Basball. Three up three down type stuff. Obviously it varies from day to day. However if you knew two high batting average teams were squaring off, and could possibly average at least 1 per inning, then you could possibly be looking at a 7-7 8-7 8-8 type situation going in final inning/innings. The set up would be there, but luck would have to on your side to pull it off. I think looking at possible set up situations is a more logical away to approach the odds than just say the Rangers and the Royals are playing, maybe the score will be 13-4. I am convinced it is a craphoot also.

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