MLB 5/14 Plays

buffettgambler · May 14, 2010

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Large
Rangers +106
Wrong team favored. Oddsmakers continue to inflate the price of the Blue Jays and Cecil. The market has done a fairly good job correcting this line, but in my opinion, there is still a good amount of value left on the table for backing the Rangers. I said last week that Cecil has been overachieving, predominantly because he has done a good job of avoiding baserunners, which has masked his deficiency of not pitching out of the stretch well. Last week looked like a glimpse of things to come from Cecil once his unusually low BABIP comes back to normalcy. Cecil eats up left handed bats, but struggles against right handed hitters. Tonight, he will face 8 from the right side, including Cruz, the Rangers most dangerous hitter who is making his first start since coming off the DL. I like what I am seeing out of Harden of late. He was really struggling with his walk total out of the gate, but his dominating stuff prevented teams from capitalizing against him. In his last two starts, his control has improved, while he is still not getting hit hard.

TheHungerForMore · May 14, 2010

I couldn't believe that Rays line yesterday and the marker agrees it was badly set. Already shot up 30 cents.

Are you on Atl? What you think of the line Phi/Mil, fairly well priced line?

HacheMan · May 14, 2010

GL bg

Stabler12 · May 14, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG!

buffettgambler · May 14, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
I couldn't believe that Rays line yesterday and the marker agrees it was badly set. Already shot up 30 cents.

Are you on Atl? What you think of the line Phi/Mil, fairly well priced line?

I got in early on the Rays too. That line stuck out like a sore thumb. Market has not priced it where it should be.

I have an order on Atl, but it probably will not be filled.

Will be on the Brewers. Not sure what size I will close with.

Stabler12 · May 14, 2010

buffettgambler said:
I got in early on the Rays too. That line stuck out like a sore thumb. Market has not priced it where it should be.

I have an order on Atl, but it probably will not be filled.

Will be on the Brewers. Not sure what size I will close with.

Tampa -170ish is no good? Thanks.:toast:

buffettgambler · May 14, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Tampa -170ish is no good? Thanks.:toast:

No, it is a fair price in my opinion. The market has been really solid correcting bookmakers weak lines the last few days. Currerently, 6 games NVL are exactly (or one cent off) from my NVL's on today's card.
Best of luck Munson.

Stabler12 · May 14, 2010

I guess what I meant to ask was if the price was no longer a good bet for me. Sorry.

buffettgambler · May 14, 2010

Stabler12 said:
I guess what I meant to ask was if the price was no longer a good bet for me. Sorry.

Nope. Looks like a 0 EV bet to me.

Stabler12 · May 14, 2010

Thanks, I put a -119 bet in on Milwaukee as I'm leaving for the ballpark with my daughter now. I appreciate the headsup on that one, and I'll check for any west coast action when I get home.:toast:

TheHungerForMore · May 14, 2010

buffettgambler said:
No, it is a fair price in my opinion. The market has been really solid correcting bookmakers weak lines the last few days. Currerently, 6 games NVL are exactly (or one cent off) from my NVL's on today's card.
Best of luck Munson.

Wow. How the fk exactly the same or one cent off on six games.

buffettgambler · May 14, 2010

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Brewers -121
No surprise I am finding value on the Brewers. The Phillies have been my biggest short position this season. Moyer has lead the Phillies pitchers for me in the most shorted. The Brewers are underachieving and are undervalued. I don’t like how Wolf has pitched so far this year, and this is not a good park for his pitching style. But I do like having a crafty veteran southpaw instead of a right handed power pitcher facing the Phillies. Wolf has always been harder for left handed bats, and the Phillies are loaded from the left side. He does not have the most impressive numbers against the Phillies, but Howard and Utley come into this game with a combined 2 for 17 against him. With Ruiz out, the Phillies back end of the lineup is dead bats. They will need a lot of production from the front six. Not sold on Moyer. A flyball pitcher in this park against the Brewers power can spell another bad outing is in the cards for Moyer. The Brewers get Braun back, and have an edge in every facet of this game.

tommyjohn44 · May 14, 2010

Rangers up 3-0 after top half of 1

and then Harden starts out the game with 13 straight balls to load the bases...3-3 and the Blue Jays aren't done yet.

grrr...

IrishTim · May 14, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Wow. How the fk exactly the same or one cent off on six games.

One of the most absurd things I've ever heard of.

RayLuca · May 14, 2010

3-0 is a long long time ago

buffettgambler · May 14, 2010

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Dodgers +127
Classic case of the market chasing past performance. The Padres have been overachieving all season. They have been doing it with overachieving starting pitching and a lot of smoke and mirrors. They are coming off a road series where they were underdog all three games and swept the Giants. Now you bring them back home to face an underachieving Dodgers team with a pitcher on the mound that all of a sudden seems to not be allowing any runs, and you have a tailor made platform for an overvaluation. Garland is pitching way over his head, and I don’t think it lasts much longer. His FIP and tERA are huge warning signs of a good luck over good pitching has lead to his recent success. As long as he is being priced with inflation, I will bet against his hot streak. Ortiz is a question mark, but clearly the market doesn’t like him. They haven’t for some time. Backed by a deep bullpen, and I don’t expect him to see many innings if he is struggling. Facing a young lineup like the Padres that lack power should provide him an ideal platform to get a good start.

Stabler12 · May 14, 2010

Glad I played the Brewers correctly. Thanks and GL on all 3 tonight!

TheHungerForMore · May 14, 2010

BG, you still do stocks?

Rip007 · May 14, 2010

Best...thank you for responding to yesterdays question

MLB 5/14 Plays

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