Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Oakland came into this divisional series with a 9-13 record since April 17, when they were a season-high five games over .500 (9-4). The key for the Athletics is scoring four runs or more in a game, as they possess a sparkling 17-1 record when doing so. On the flip side, Oakland is a miserable 1-16 when failing to do so. The pitching staff has managed a 5.43 ERA on the road compared to 2.78 at home. They have also yielded 26 home runs in 16 road games, while just allowing nine home runs in 20 games at home.
Athletics SP Justin Duchscherer has tallied a perfect 6-0 record and 1.44 ERA in 24 career appearances against the Angels (three starts). In those appearances, he’s actually allowed 16 runs over 50 innings pitched, but only eight have been earned. Oakland has won four of his five starts on the year, as the right-hander is coming off his worst start of the season, a 6-3 loss at Toronto. He managed to last just 3 2/3 innings and allowed four earned runs and five hits (two HR).
Los Angeles is suffering through its worst start since 1990 and has been outscored by 51 runs this season. The Angels have a chance of turning things around against a team that they haven’t lost a season series to since 2003. Of the last 78 games between the two teams, 43 have been decided by two runs-or-fewer and 25 have been one-run decisions. Offensively, the team is hitting just .223 in the month of May and scoring 3.5 runs. The pitching staff hasn’t been much better this month, issuing an average of 5.1 walks per game.
Angels SP Ervin Santana can certainly match Duchscherer’s stats against their opponent on Saturday. The right-hander is a dominating 10-2 with a 1.41 ERA in 17 career games (15 starts) against the Athletics. He has managed to allow just 79 hits over 108 1/3 innings over those contests. The Angels have lost his last two starts, as the offense has mustered up just two runs of support. He has been very shaky during the month of May in his career, posting a 7-12 record and 5.25 ERA in 25 career starts.
Bettors can certainly find value in the under in Saturday’s game, considering it has cashed in 12 of Santana’s last 15 starts against the A’s. This also fits in nicely with the under being 8-3 in Duchscherer’s last 11 road starts.
With both pitchers possessing dominating numbers against the opposition, the underdog may be the only solution. The Angels are also 0-7 (-934) in Santana’s last seven home starts as a favorite of this kind, with the offense producing just 19 runs in those contests.