MLB 5/15 Plays

buffettgambler · May 15, 2010

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Large
Yankees -135
Rarely do I play the Yankees. But it appears that the market is still overly bullish on Liriano, despite him showing signs of slowdown the last couple of starts. Liriano’s fast start had caught me by a bit of a surprise, but his last 13 innings where he has allowed 8 runs and 18 hits hasn’t really. The market appears to still want to price him as the Liriano of 06, and I think they are getting ahead of themselves with that. His slider is simply not as effective as it was back then. He has also always pitched much better at home. The Yankees should have no problem getting to the Twins overrated bullpen either. I think Pettite is pitching over his head, but would much rather back him when he looks fresh and in control of his pitches. He has absolutely owned left handed hitters this year, which does not bode well for the Twins lineup. He has also allowed just one home run, which bodes well for avoiding the park and wind factor that indicates balls should be going over the fence. The Twins are putting one of their weaker lineups out there today, as Harris and Buerta materially bring down their intrinsic worth. The Yankees are an impressive 13-2 at home.

Stabler12 · May 15, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG.

RayLuca · May 15, 2010

Best of Luck

GordonGekko · May 15, 2010

Buffett,

You see anything at 4? Nice call so far on the Yankees. Had them with Toronto all over the board. Romero pitched a gem today.

GEKKO

buffettgambler · May 15, 2010

Gordon Gekko said:
Buffett,

You see anything at 4? Nice call so far on the Yankees. Had them with Toronto all over the board. Romero pitched a gem today.

GEKKO

Nothing in the UM/Large range. TB and Milw just missed the cut.

Stabler12 · May 15, 2010

Nice call on the Yanks, thanks.

buffettgambler · May 15, 2010

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Large
Rockies -146
I am not sold on Atlino. He lacks overwhelming stuff, is around the plate too much and prone to the long ball. Challenging Rockies hitters in Coors is the last approach you want to take. He has also shown a propensity to walk batters of late, something he was actually good at in the minors. He so far has been able to mask these flaws by getting out of jams, something in which I deem unsustainable. This is an ideal spot for him to get a reality check. Runs shouldn’t stop once he leaves the game, as the Rockies should have not problem handling an already worked and below average bullpen. The Rockies entered the season as a sexy pick. Now that they have been underachieving for quite some time, the market is now starting to show signs of discounting them. Finally they are within my price range. The market is also really bearish on Hammel, and he has given them good reason to be so. But I think he bounces back from an early season slump and injury. He is a ground ball pitcher that is crafty and can take advantage of the youth in the Nationals lineup. The Nats being without Rodriguez and Willingham should help matters, and so should the expected run support.

buffettgambler · May 15, 2010

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A’s +133
I don’t get this line. It quietly looks like Duchscherer is becoming the most undervalued pitcher in baseball. Is the market valuing him as the worth to his team or the worth to his team when he is actually on the mound? He hasn’t helped much with all his injuries the last couple of years, but when he is actually on the mound he consistently has been dominant. I like him in this spot too, as he is facing a team he has absolutely owned in his career, sporting a 1.44 ERA against them in over 50 innings of work. The Angels bats look sluggish of late, scoring 4 or less runs in 11 of their last 16 games. Duchsherer is backed by a solid pen, so not going deep into the game is not much of a problem. The A’s lineup looks to be in shambles, but this is one of the better lineups they are putting out all season. I like the bring up of Cust, who adds much needed pop against right handed pitchers. Santana has impressive numbers against the A’s in his career, but doesn’t have much of a history against a lot of the hitters in tonight’s lineup. His high variance propensity makes him a better candidate to back as an underdog. The Angels bullpen is unreliable and not as good as their opponents.
<o

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>
Dodgers -114
Going right back on Kershaw and right back against the Padres at home. Kershaw is a top tier pitcher in baseball. Here is a guy that has not had his best stuff all season, allowing 27 walks in just 38 innings of work. Despite that, he has allowed more than three runs in a start just once in seven starts. Last start against Colorado was a good indication he is getting things back on track, as he looked unhittable and showed much better control of his pitches. Tonight he faces a lineup that lacks the talent to take advantage of his high walk propensity. It is also a team that he has dominated in the past. With the Dodgers bullpen as talented as they are, the Padres will have a hard time scoring throughout. Whethere Corriea is mentally ready for this game is a big question mark. Even if he is mentally ready, he may not be physically, as he has not been on the mound in a couple of weeks. The Dodgers know him well, and have a nice lineup advantage in this one. There is still value in going against the Padres at home as long as they stay on top of the division.

NyMets609 · May 15, 2010

love the Dodgers tonight BG. their line up is just too much for any pitcher to handle right now and Kershaw is in an absolute zone, completely locked in.

I expect SD to start coming back to earth and hovering around the .500 mark. They are below league average in batting average, hitting with RISP and a few other key stats which leaves absolutely no margin for error for their pitching. So far the pitchers have overachieved so much they have gotten away with it but can't see them sustaining it much longer.

Stabler12 · May 15, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG!

IrishTim · May 15, 2010

Duchscherer scratched?

buffettgambler · May 15, 2010

IrishTim said:
Duchscherer scratched?

Bet canceled. Hip still nagging him.

TheHungerForMore · May 15, 2010

Carlos González is a real talented hitter.

Stabler12 · May 15, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Bet canceled. Hip still nagging him.

Thought I got lucky and bet it action, but I did not. Up 2-0 early. Oh, well. Funny thing is I knew you only bet listed pitchers because the writeups always feature the starters prominently.

Stabler12 · May 15, 2010

Weird how things work out, an hour ago I'm moaning about the scratched bet, now they trail 6-2.

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