MLB 5/16 Plays

buffettgambler · May 16, 2010

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Red Sox -133

Both teams are using a lot of bench players in this one. However, the Red Sox have a much deeper bench and have a nice lineup edge here. A lot of question marks around Galaraga. I would rather be bearish on him rather than bullish, as this is an emergency start from a pitcher that has not shown anything in two years. Galarga is prone to walks and home runs. The last lineup you want to face is a patient one with a lot of pop. He has also been roughed up by left handed bats during his time in the majors. The Red Sox will throw out five against him today. Both bullpens were taxed last night. Lackey gives the Red Sox a much better chance of avoiding them than does the Tigers pitcher. Lackey is out of favor right now. This is the ideal time to back him, as I see no fundamental reason for his struggles. He seems to struggle more pitching at Fenway as well. Look for an improvement out of him from here on out.

bucsfan67 · May 16, 2010

good luck today BG...

buffettgambler · May 16, 2010

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Rockies -124
The market is really becoming bullish on Olson. Too bullish. He is a different pitcher compared to the pitcher that took the mound the last couple of years, as he no longer stubbornly over relies on an ineffective fastball. However, I still think he has a good amount of downside off of current form. Olson has always been hampered by a weak mental game. Although he is riding with confidence into this game after a fast start, allowing over a run an inning against the Rockies in over 26 innings of work against them must still be weighing on his mind. Olson throws a lot of pitches per inning and is not a candidate to go deep into this game. He is backed by an overworked bullpen. The market is taking a wait and see approach on Francis. At this price, I will jump in. He looked solid in his last start in the minors. He is crafty and does not try to overpower you, which bodes well against the Nationals lineup. He should get some run support and the Rockies have a pretty deep bullpen. Rockies are on the cheap at home when Jimenez is not pitching. I will take them, as they have a lot of upside from here.

IrishTim · May 16, 2010

Was already on both. Thanks BG :toast:

buffettgambler · May 16, 2010

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Dodgers +102
This may be the worst lineup the Dodgers have put out all season. This just goes to show you how much I deemed them undervalued on the overnight. Even with a bunch of non valuable backsups in the lineup, the Dodgers still have a better lineup than the one the Padres are putting forth. As mentioned a couple of days ago, once the Padres starting pitching comes back to earth, their lineup will be exposed. It is starting to unravel, and I am expecting more of the same today. Le Blanc screams regression. How often do you see a pitchers ERA be almost exactly the same as his WHIP? Le Blanc does not have overpowering stuff and is starting to get hit hard. He is also increasing his walk rate, and sooner or later those two variables will result it more runs scored. The Dodgers know him well and have had more success against him than any other team. Billinglsley is on the cheap still. He has actually looked decent in his last four outings. He is not getting hit hard, and his walk rate should go down from here. He has dominated the Padres in the past, and the lack of power should encourage him to go over the plate more. His inability to go deep into games does not mean much when backed by a bullpen as solid as the Dodgers one.

Stabler12 · May 16, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. Just got in after a stellar 86 made my partner and me $22 each, and am on the late games with you.:toast:

luder · May 16, 2010

BG

Which side do you like in the late game?

Thanks!

buffettgambler · May 16, 2010

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Brewers +136
I have been betting against the Phillies for quite some time. So far I have been burned. But I stick by my notion that they are overachieving, and when good teams overachieve, they are prone to an overvaluation. Sooner or later, not having Rollins and Ruiz will takes it toll on the backend of the lineup. Bush looks a bit better this year and his production is closer aligned with his expectations. He has always pitched much better in his home starts. Hamels has not looked sharp this season. He appears much more hittable, and his last three outings has been prone to the walk. Being a flyball pitcher, you can not allow this many baserunners and get away with it for long. You are also not going to get away from being a flyball pitcher in this park and against this power. He is really struggling against right handed bats. The Brewers have the talent from the right side to capitalize on this. The injury to Lidge does damage to the front end of the Phillies rotation, and once again makes this facet a liability.

MemphisMonroe · May 16, 2010

:toast:

Stabler12 · May 16, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. Thanks for the earlier winners!:toast:

TheHungerForMore · May 16, 2010

Nice work.

It sucks when the three biggest plays (possibility four) of the week i had were all PPD, or a pitching change.

Rip007 · May 17, 2010

MLB 5/16 Plays

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