Why Not Bet Like A Bookie?

BAGIANT

New member

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

7,948

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #1

When I was taking action, I was forced to take whatever bets the players made whether I liked it or not. Always worked for me.

So why not look at the players consensus to see which side the public is betting, and then take the other side. That's what I did this morning taking all 5 dogs in the early games. Let's see what happens.

 

midman2161

New member

Joined

Nov 19, 2007

Messages

5,066

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #2

I think this works a lot more in certain situations.. like SNF or MNF during NFL regular season. It's been proven that just fading the public/consensus blindly isn't enough to come out ahead, especially in baseball where you'll be betting against someone like Roy Halladay every time he pitches.

 

SportSavant

New member

Joined

Sep 21, 2003

Messages

42,910

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #3

I always look at the concensus reports on SportsOptions, for sure use it as a method to determine a selection.

 

bellyputter

Member

Joined

Sep 21, 2006

Messages

5,250

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #4

Bookmakers lose more than 50% of their decisions on the major sports. You must be much more specific. Vig kills.

 

TomGshotput

Rx. Senior

Joined

Nov 8, 2007

Messages

5,490

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #5

I would, just can't find anyone offering me +110 on either side. . .

 

doubledeuce22

Member

Joined

Jan 14, 2007

Messages

8,229

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #6

i've seen quite a few people here try doing this, almost to a fault

 

PlaysnFades

New member

Joined

Sep 2, 2009

Messages

1,024

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #7

I was curious how this 1 day tiny sample will work out today (using Betjamaica closing lines):

Public Plays:

MILW +123 LOST
Over 9.5 -105 LOST

FLA -176 WON
Under 8 -105 PUSH

TOR -118 WON
Under 8 -103 LOST

DET -138 LOST
Under 9 -125 WON

TB -260 WON
Under 8.5 -120 WON

Sides: 3-2 +.62
Totals: 2-2-1 -.08
Public: 5-4-1 +.54

 

shdw01

Rx Senior

Joined

Dec 7, 2004

Messages

18,351

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #8

Betting like a bookie would mean getting +110 on every bet you make.....good luck!

 

PlaysnFades

New member

Joined

Sep 2, 2009

Messages

1,024

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #9

shdw01 said:

Betting like a bookie would mean getting +110 on every bet you make.....good luck!

Click to expand...

Just for fun I looked at all the games for this month with closing lines of -120 to -130, to see how those dogs of +110 to +120 have done so far this month, and to my surprise its 16-11 59% (min +6.60 units).

Not bad for someone betting blindly. Small sample of course.

:toast:

 

punter

New member

Joined

Nov 8, 2006

Messages

9,491

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #10

Not only the vig but the parlays.

If you cold place bets with a books advantage no one would be booking.

 

PlaysnFades

New member

Joined

Sep 2, 2009

Messages

1,024

Tokens

• May 18, 2010

• #11

In April it went 23-28 45% -2.70 units.
Overall would be 39-39 50% +3.90 units.

 

VIEJODINOSAUR

Member

Joined

Oct 26, 2003

Messages

26,300

Tokens

• May 19, 2010

• #12

BAGIANT said:

When I was taking action, I was forced to take whatever bets the players made whether I liked it or not. Always worked for me.

So why not look at the players consensus to see which side the public is betting, and then take the other side. That's what I did this morning taking all 5 dogs in the early games. Let's see what happens.

Click to expand...

You will be broke....books can handle the losing streaks; you won't be able to...

 

Sammy439

Almost Geraldo

Joined

Aug 22, 2008

Messages

322

Tokens

• May 19, 2010

• #13

BAGIANT said:

When I was taking action, I was forced to take whatever bets the players made whether I liked it or not. Always worked for me.

So why not look at the players consensus to see which side the public is betting, and then take the other side. That's what I did this morning taking all 5 dogs in the early games. Let's see what happens.

Click to expand...

It worked for you because you were getting +110 I assume at huge volume. Making plays only against the public is not enough to win long term. You will break even. Public loses their money from horrible money management most of the time.

 

BadCo

New member

Joined

Jun 25, 2005

Messages

7,018

Tokens

• May 19, 2010

• #14

When you book for every guy winning there are two guys losing.

You will be of the latter.

 

TonyMar

Member

Joined

Nov 27, 2005

Messages

15,471

Tokens

• May 20, 2010

• #15

in the world today...the great majority of bookies are young & ignorant...

the experienced old school guys are all on the run...on the beach...or behind bars...the good old days are a thing of the past...