MLB 5/19 Plays

buffettgambler · May 19, 2010

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Upper Medium
Red Sox -119
Not sure why the market elected to drop the line 10% off the open, but in my opinion, they are moving it the wrong way. Not sure if they are overplaying the Yankees hangover angle, but what I took away from that series was the Red Sox showed a lot of resilience, heart, and some signs of life at the plate-something they have been lacking a good part of this season. Baker is so far having an off year and is struggling against the better lineups he has faced. The market is pricing a rebound, but I would prefer to see him piece together a couple good outings before claiming he is back to form. Last year, he really struggled in his only start against the Red Sox. This year, he is struggling much more against left handed hitters. The Red Sox will send out four plus hitters from the left side. Buckholtz has been hard to score against so far this season despite an abnormally high walk total. I am expecting his control to improve here on out, which means teams will have to piece together hits to score, something which Buckholz has been solid at not allowing. Despite the poor play from the Red Sox pen, expect them to improve off current form. Bullpen edge to the Red Sox. Home field advantage is magnified in this series.

Stabler12 · May 19, 2010

I am pretty sure the hangover angle is behind this price. Boston at home at anywhere near this price, unless it's a pitching mismatch, is a bargain. I'll bet the last time they were this cheap vs. Minnesota was facing Santana. Thanks and GL, BG.

buffettgambler · May 19, 2010

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Upper Medium
Rangers -161
After last week’s performance by Harden, I am not surprised that the oddsmakers kept his line artificially low. The market is better discounters on short term struggles, and I am not surprised to see them increase the asking price on the Rangers by 5%. I still think Harden can piece together a solid season. Prior to last week, he really improved his command and limited his walks. I think the Orioles provide him an ideal matchup to once again get things back on track and limit his walk total. Yesterday proved once again that the Rangers bats can keep them in any game, even with their starting pitcher struggles. Expect Guthrie to regress a bit from here. There really isn’t any structural change in his pitching to warrant such a drastic improvement against right handed hitters. He well hit ratio has not decreased much, nor has his line drive rate. Backed by the worst bullpen in baseball puts him in a spot where he will have to continue to overachieve to give the Orioles a good chance of winning. The Orioles bats have slowed down of late despite not facing that impressive of pitching.

Badintentions · May 19, 2010

ugh, i missed your Red Sox play. I always see your plays after I have bet mine. Is there a reason you wait til the last minute or do you have a time frame when you bet them?

TheHungerForMore · May 19, 2010

What's your line for Col/Hou?

Stabler12 · May 19, 2010

Pretty steep price, but I'll ride shotgun. Any concern that the Rangers will have a similar 'hangover' after the thrilling win over the Angels yesterday? Thanks and GL, BG.

buffettgambler · May 19, 2010

Badintentions said:
ugh, i missed your Red Sox play. I always see your plays after I have bet mine. Is there a reason you wait til the last minute or do you have a time frame when you bet them?

Waiting for the lineups to come out.

buffettgambler · May 19, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
What's your line for Col/Hou?

Col NVL -108

buffettgambler · May 19, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Pretty steep price, but I'll ride shotgun. Any concern that the Rangers will have a similar 'hangover' after the thrilling win over the Angels yesterday? Thanks and GL, BG.

Not really Munson. The Rangers are a really streaky team that thrives off of momentum. Would rather back them after a game like last night.

Stabler12 · May 19, 2010

Thanks, BG, certainly there are different reactions to emotional wins and I will not pretend to understand how Texas will react. I know Boston and New York have struggled for years after facing each other. GL.

buffettgambler · May 19, 2010

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A’s +111
Once again the Tigers are coming with a premium. It looks like the market has jumped off Braden after not looking too good in his start following the perfect game. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored. As mentioned yesterday, the Tigers lineup and bullpen are both overachieving and are overrated. They are putting out one of their weaker lineups of the year tonight. Despite all the attention and letdown spots, Braden appears to be still dialed in. He is allowing less than a baserunner an inning and does not rely on the fastball to be effective, which bodes well when facing the Tigers. Despite ugly career numbers against the Tigers, there is only one hitter in the lineup with past success against him. The only other two are not in today’s lineup. He is also a much better pitcher now than when he faced them the last couple of years. Despite the recent success of the Tigers bullpen, he is backed by the better bullpen than his counterparts. Verlander is a hit or miss pitcher, but he really has not pitched well on the road for nearly three years now. He comes into today’s game with a five plus ERA away from home. He is dominating right handed hitters this year, but struggling more against the left handed bats he has faced. The A’s have five left handed hitters in today’s lineup.

Rip007 · May 19, 2010

Thanks

NyMets609 · May 19, 2010

had a feeling you would def be on Oakland tonight. good luck.

Stabler12 · May 19, 2010

I expected the Giants to get the call, as I believe Kennedy is overrated by the linesmakers. Do appreciate the Oakland play. Thanks and GL, BG.

FelipeAugne · May 19, 2010

Thanks BG....glad to see I'm on the A's for some of the same reasons you're. Good luck tonight!!

NyMets609 · May 19, 2010

Stabler12 said:
I expected the Giants to get the call, as I believe Kennedy is overrated by the linesmakers. Do appreciate the Oakland play. Thanks and GL, BG.

bg not a big fan of Wellemeyer.

GordonGekko · May 19, 2010

Verlander has not fared well in Oakland and Braden, even getting the loss last game, pitched 8 in a loss.

Excellent BG as always..

GEKKO

MemphisMonroe · May 19, 2010

Love the A's tonight. :dancefool

NyMets609 · May 19, 2010

Ordonez out of the line up for Detroit.

Stabler12 · May 19, 2010

NyMets609 said:
bg not a big fan of Wellemeyer.

I remember reading that on a previous game, but the Giants are a better team and the price is very high. I already have them, and love it when BG matches up. Thanks.:toast: