Five (Tues) tonight w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

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Houston +1.48 over MILWAUKEE http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
This equation is a rather simple one and it goes something like this: When Randy Wolf and the Brewers are a -1.57 favorite and the opposition players are not wearing bras, take the tag and let the chips fall where they may. The Brewers are a complete and utter disaster with nothing to offer but everything to get excited about when wagering against them. They give up runs in bunches while seldom scoring many of their own. Every reliever they bring in is worse than the last one and now Ken Macha is keeping in pitchers longer than he should because the relief has been so bad. It’s not unusual to see the Brewers playing from six or seven down very early. Randy Wolf (16 BPV, 3-1-5-0-2 PQS) has pitched every bit as poorly as his 5.10 ERA makes it appear. He has just one PQS-Dom performance in his last eight starts and he’s getting progressively worse. In fact, in four May starts, Wolf is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA and a BAA of .326. His command is awful, his velocity is down and he pitches for one of the worst teams in the league. After seeing Ubaldo Jiminez, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann and David Price, facing Randy Wolf may appear in slow motion for the Astros. Felipe Paulino is a work in progress but the fact that he’s winless is a crime. Paulino has wicked stuff and that should bode well here against a Brewer team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Paulino has three PQS-dominant outings in his last four starts. He features three outstanding pitches; a curve, slider and fastball that comes in at about 95MPH. In 23 innings this month the opposition is hitting just .230 off him. So, yeah, the Astros are challenged for sure and they’re having a horrible year but they’re slowly but surely coming around and they not nearly as bad as its record indicates. The Brewers are and frankly, the take-back is ludicrous. Play: Houston +1.48 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Texas –1½ +1.16 over KANSAS CITY http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
There has to be something wrong with Gil Meche. Either that or he’s completely burned out. Meche has been brutally awful all year and even in his last game when he allowed just two runs in five frames he was awful. That pitching line is flattering as hell because Meche was literally behind every batter 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1 and he’s lucky the Indians didn’t score eight or nine runs. The Royals have lost eight of the last 10 games that Meche has started and that’s unlikely to change here, as the Rangers always show up against this host and Meche is winless in his last 10 starts. In fact, Texas was won 16 of the last 21 meetings over the Royals and while Rich Harden is not having a good year by any stretch, this one is all about playing against Meche. And lastly, Meche has proven to be the easiest pitcher in the league to run against. He simply does not have the ability to keep runners from stealing because of a slow delivery to the plate. Singles turn into doubles and in eight games, Meche has allowed alarming 15 stolen bases. Play: Texas –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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CINCINNATI –1½ +1.23 over Pittsburgh http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
Paul Maholm’s last six starts have come against the Brewers twice, the Cubbies twice, the Astros and the Cardinals. The Cardinals and Brewers tagged him and a big correction is forthcoming in his 4.50 ERA. The league is till hitting .296 off Maholm and he’s about to face one of the hottest hitting clubs in the majors. The Reds have scored 58 times over its last 10 games and they’re batting .313 over that stretch. They’re 6-2 at home against lefties and overall the Reds have won 12 of its last 16 games. Mike Leake is 3-0 at home with a BAA of .205, which is even more impressive when you consider this hitter’s park he pitches in. Just 30% of balls in play off him have been hit in the air to the outfield. This guy throws strikes, he induces ground balls and the Reds have won six of the eight games he’s started for them. Entering Monday's game, a frigid Pittsburgh offense had just two jacks and 18 runs over the past week -- both major-league lows. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Los Angeles –1.01 over CHICAGO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
Although Ryan Dempster is a solid pitcher, he can’t get it done on his own. The fact that we can take Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers and lay a penny against the Cubs is pretty much all you need to know about this one. Just in case you wanted more convincing, how about the fact that the Dodgers are about 100 times better than the Cubbies in every way possible. L.A. has also won six in a row on the road and they’re bullpen might be 200 times better than the Cubbies. Chicago has picked it up by winning six of its last eight but that’s fools gold. This edition of the Cubs is the worst edition in years and it’s only a matter of time before Lou Pinella starts pulling out his hair again. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best in the business when he throws strikes and after a horrible start he has returned to his dominant form. Kershaw is 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA over his last three, all PQS 5’s. Play: Los Angeles –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2). <o:p></o:p>
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Boston +1.03 over TAMPA BAY http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
The Rays have scored the most runs in the AL while allowing the least and they've hardly given their opposition a chance to breathe. With no one on base, the Rays' offense has been in the middle of the pack. In run-scoring situations, however, they've posted the best OPS in the league. And not just the best - the best by 90 points. The Yankees come in second, at .837. Clearly, the Rays have excelled when they've needed to. Unfortunately, clutch hitting isn't a skill. Or at least, clutch hitting isn't a skill, on the team level to this degree. They'll continue to be a very good team but the rate at which they've been pushing runs across the plate is due to slow down because they're not going to keep outpacing everyone else with runners in scoring position. As things begin to even out over the coming months, the Rays will score fewer runs, and as they score fewer runs, they'll win fewer games. Enter Jon Lester, one of the best in the business. Man, is this guy good. Lester is dialed in right now with a BAA of .181 in four May starts after allowing just 19 hits in 31 IP. On the year he’s struck out 63 batters in 59.2 innings and frankly, I really don’t care who he’s facing. When you can get a tag on Lester and the surging Red Sox, take it and ask no questions. Oh, one last tidbit here is that the Rays are 4-11 in James Shield’s last 15 starts vs the Red Sox. Play: Boston +1.03 (Risking 2 units).



**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
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**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
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In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
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1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
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2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
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3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
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4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
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5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
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A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
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Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
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RX Ninja
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Nov 20, 2008
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Nice writeups - I see eye-to-eye with you on Cinncinatti and LA. Would probably have pulled the trigger on the Rangers but I've already got 5 plays on my card.

Would also add that Brewers have just been disastrous at home, otherwise I might have leaned that way.
 

do work son
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Feb 13, 2008
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The only wager I disagree with is the Milwaukee/Houston one.

Geoff Blum batting sixth. Whoemever rounds out the order, in addition to the pitcher, makes that four automatic outs. Bourn is a solid major leaguer, Keppinger is average, Berkman has been average and declining, Lee has been alright but like Berkman will be decline, and Pence has had a bad start to the season.

This is the one team that Randy Wolf could make look foolish. Watching them struggle to score three the other night was brutal..
 

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I would be really surprised if these plays don`t give you a profit tonight.I tailed them all earlier today.The early games are scoreless but I`m sure we will end up on the plus side at nights end.
 

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