All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<o
></o>
<o></o>
<o> Atlanta –1½ +1.26 over FLORIDA http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
Tommy Hanson allowed a career-high eight earned runs in a career-low 1 2/3 innings in his last outing against the Reds. He said his stomach had been bothering him a day or two before that start. By the time he got to the mound Thursday, trainers think he was battling dehydration.<o></o> “I was dizzy and really light-headed,” Hanson said. “I would look down and Mac (Brian McCann) would kind of be blurry and weird. I’d take steps and my body wasn’t feeling right. And then you go out there, and you’re trying to make pitches and hit a spot.” Hanson said he spent the next couple of days drinking Gatorade and water and eating salty foods to balance out his electrolytes and is feeling back to normal. For him to go out there under those conditions is just more proof of how fierce a competitor Hanson is. He’ll bounce back today and he couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent. You see, Hanson is a strikeout pitcher (116 in 127 IP) and the Marlins have struck out 368 times, which ranks them 26th in the majors. Prior to that last start, Hanson had an ERA of 2.88 and in his first year against the Marlins last season he went 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He’s better this year. Nate Robertson is living on the edge – the edge of being yanked from the rotation. Robertson is a horrible pitcher with very little upside. He walks as many as he strikes out and has walked four or more in four of his last seven games. Over his last six games he’s allowed a ton more flyballs than groundballs (67/45) and that combo of walks and fly balls has disaster written all over it. Robertson is going to get absolutely crushed very soon and this could be the day. Play Atlanta –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
<o></o>
NY Mets +1.06 over PHILADELPHIAhttp://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
The Phillies could be all screwed up due to the fact that they’ve faced back-to-back knuckleballers and it might be the first time in history that has occurred. Anyway, the Phillies have lost three in a row and were shutout twice over that stretch. Joe Blanton is about as average as they come. He will never dominate anyone and he’ll can be counted on to allow anywhere between 3 and 6 runs every start. He’s also allowed five jacks in 26.1 frames since coming off the DL. The Mets have woken up with four wins in five games and that includes two wins over the Yanks and last night’s series opening win over these Phillies. Hisanori Takahaski held the Yankees scoreless through six innings Friday. He struck out five and walked one. The pressure of a spot start against the Yankees in the Subway Series did little to faze Takahashi, who baffled the Yankees with his herky-jerky delivery and wide array of pitches. He already has 38 k’s in 32 innings and you might not see him in the bullpen again. He’s wickedly good and it sure helps that the Phillies are off-balance to begin with and they’ve never seen this guy. Wrong side favored. Play: NY Mets +1.06 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
<o></o>
Oakland +1.13 over BALTIMORE http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
Trevor Cahill (52 BPV, 2-3-2-4-4 PQS) is trending the right way in recent starts, at least for a ground ball/pitch-to-contact pitcher. He has a 70% GB rate over his last three starts (19.1 IP, 15H, 6 ER). And last year he posted a 156 BPV in two starts against the O’s, a team with a .699 OPS this season. It’s also worth noting that the A’s are 9-4 in Cahill’s last 13 starts. Brian Matusz has pitched well at home and had a nice game against Oakland in mid-April, but he's had problems in recent starts that come from all over the place, from home runs allowed, to poor control, to not missing enough bats. Matusz has allowed 24 hits over his last 12 innings and his BAA in four May starts is an alarming .361. There is no doubt the value here is on the A’s. Play: Oakland +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o></o>
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o></o>
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o></o>
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o></o>
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o></o>
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o></o>
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o></o>
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o></o>
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o></o>
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
</o>
<o
></o><o
></o><o
> Atlanta –1½ +1.26 over FLORIDA http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>Tommy Hanson allowed a career-high eight earned runs in a career-low 1 2/3 innings in his last outing against the Reds. He said his stomach had been bothering him a day or two before that start. By the time he got to the mound Thursday, trainers think he was battling dehydration.<o
></o> “I was dizzy and really light-headed,” Hanson said. “I would look down and Mac (Brian McCann) would kind of be blurry and weird. I’d take steps and my body wasn’t feeling right. And then you go out there, and you’re trying to make pitches and hit a spot.” Hanson said he spent the next couple of days drinking Gatorade and water and eating salty foods to balance out his electrolytes and is feeling back to normal. For him to go out there under those conditions is just more proof of how fierce a competitor Hanson is. He’ll bounce back today and he couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent. You see, Hanson is a strikeout pitcher (116 in 127 IP) and the Marlins have struck out 368 times, which ranks them 26th in the majors. Prior to that last start, Hanson had an ERA of 2.88 and in his first year against the Marlins last season he went 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He’s better this year. Nate Robertson is living on the edge – the edge of being yanked from the rotation. Robertson is a horrible pitcher with very little upside. He walks as many as he strikes out and has walked four or more in four of his last seven games. Over his last six games he’s allowed a ton more flyballs than groundballs (67/45) and that combo of walks and fly balls has disaster written all over it. Robertson is going to get absolutely crushed very soon and this could be the day. Play Atlanta –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units). <o></o><o
></o>NY Mets +1.06 over PHILADELPHIAhttp://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Phillies could be all screwed up due to the fact that they’ve faced back-to-back knuckleballers and it might be the first time in history that has occurred. Anyway, the Phillies have lost three in a row and were shutout twice over that stretch. Joe Blanton is about as average as they come. He will never dominate anyone and he’ll can be counted on to allow anywhere between 3 and 6 runs every start. He’s also allowed five jacks in 26.1 frames since coming off the DL. The Mets have woken up with four wins in five games and that includes two wins over the Yanks and last night’s series opening win over these Phillies. Hisanori Takahaski held the Yankees scoreless through six innings Friday. He struck out five and walked one. The pressure of a spot start against the Yankees in the Subway Series did little to faze Takahashi, who baffled the Yankees with his herky-jerky delivery and wide array of pitches. He already has 38 k’s in 32 innings and you might not see him in the bullpen again. He’s wickedly good and it sure helps that the Phillies are off-balance to begin with and they’ve never seen this guy. Wrong side favored. Play: NY Mets +1.06 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>Oakland +1.13 over BALTIMORE http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Trevor Cahill (52 BPV, 2-3-2-4-4 PQS) is trending the right way in recent starts, at least for a ground ball/pitch-to-contact pitcher. He has a 70% GB rate over his last three starts (19.1 IP, 15H, 6 ER). And last year he posted a 156 BPV in two starts against the O’s, a team with a .699 OPS this season. It’s also worth noting that the A’s are 9-4 in Cahill’s last 13 starts. Brian Matusz has pitched well at home and had a nice game against Oakland in mid-April, but he's had problems in recent starts that come from all over the place, from home runs allowed, to poor control, to not missing enough bats. Matusz has allowed 24 hits over his last 12 innings and his BAA in four May starts is an alarming .361. There is no doubt the value here is on the A’s. Play: Oakland +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
</o
>
