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Note the 3:35 PM EST start. A big day at the plate for the Giants is scoring three times. A big day on the mound for Barry Zito is when he walks less than five and gives up less than five. Now the reeling Giants with no offense and a very ordinary pitcher are a –1.70 chalk? Are you kidding? First, the Giants have dropped six of seven and over that stretch they’ve scored 16 times. Throw out a game against the A’s in which they scored seven times and the Giants would have nine runs in six games. Over its last five games the Giants are batting .192 with an OBP of .250. Zito got off to a great start but he was lucky with an unsustainable high strand rate. In his last three starts he’s allowed 12 earned runs in 18.1 IP and the opposition was San Diego, Houston and Oakland. There might not be a worse hitting group than that aforementioned trio. Zito’s fastball tops off at 85MPH and his other three pitches are just as ordinary. This guy has zero appeal laying ridiculous juice. Craig Stammen isn’t much better but he’s not laying –1.70 and the Nats offense puts the Giants offense to shame. The Nats torched Tim Linecum yesterday and that feat alone instills more confidence. The Nats remain the most undervalued team in the league and win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it by a wide, wide margin. Big overlay. Play: Washington +1.60 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Houston +1.22 over MILWAUKEE<o></o>
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. With all due respect to the Astros, the Brewers might be the most pathetic team in the league. At least the Astros have some pitching and just like they do every year, they’ll very likely go on a sizzling run for about six weeks before fading away again. Anyway, if pitching has anything to do with the outcome of this game than the Astros have a huge edge in both the starting pitchers and the bullpen. Dave Bush (-23 BPV, 3-3-2-2-0 PQS) has walked 24 batters and struck out 24. That’s a problem. Bush has a WHIP of 1.76 and that, too, is a problem. He’s made nine starts this season and the Brewers are 1-8 in those starts. Bush had an ERA last year of 6.38. In two minor league starts last season his ERA was 9.95. This season his ERA at home is 6.75 and his BAA is .341 and his ERA in May is 7.27 with a BAA of .347. There’s nothing mysterious about Bush. He’s a horrible pitcher on a horrible team and while the Astros don’t have much appeal, the Brewers have way less with Bush on the hill laying a price. Brett Myers has great stuff and he’s looking better with each outing. He’s 2-1 over his last three starts with a 2.57 ERA and that includes a seven-inning, zero earned runs gem over the Rays. Incidentally, Myers is 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his career against the Brewers. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Los Angeles +1.22 over CHICAGO<o></o>
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. John Ely (132 BPV, 4-5-5-5-3 PQS) threw his first non-PQS-Dominant game of his career but still won the game against the Tigers, recording three Ks and one walk. That walk was out of character, as Ely went three straight games without issuing a walk and he now has just four walks in 31.2 IP. Ely has struck out 28 batters and has not allowed a single jack all year. In addition, the Cubbies have never seen this guy and that works in the Dodgers favor. The kid can pitch and should be extra amped up today pitching at historic Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly (40 BPV, 2-3-4-3-3 PQS) has lost his propensity for Ks in May with just 11 in 26.2 IP. While other metrics such as control and HR’s per 9 innings are on a decent pace, the loss of Ks is concerning and suggests the arthroscopic shoulder surgery recovery may be a work in progress. The Cubbies have won just two of Lilly’s six starts. So, what we get here is a pitcher that throws nothing but strikes and has great stuff with a tag facing about as ordinary a squad as there is. Play: Los Angeles +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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margin-left:4.0in; text-indent:-1.0in;} @list l1:level8 {mso-level-text:"%1-%2\.%3\.%4\.%5\.%6\.%7\.%8"; mso-level-tab-stop:4.75in; mso-level-number-position:left; margin-left:4.75in; text-indent:-1.25in;} @list l1:level9 {mso-level-text:"%1-%2\.%3\.%4\.%5\.%6\.%7\.%8\.%9"; mso-level-tab-stop:5.25in; mso-level-number-position:left; margin-left:5.25in; text-indent:-1.25in;} ol {margin-bottom:0in;} ul {margin-bottom:0in;} --> </style> In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...<o></o>
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1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.<o></o>
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2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.<o></o>
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3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.<o></o>
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4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.<o></o>
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5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park. <o></o>
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A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.<o></o>
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[FONT="]Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.[/FONT]<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]-->
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
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A big day at the plate for the Giants is scoring three times. A big day on the mound for Barry Zito is when he walks less than five and gives up less than five. Now the reeling Giants with no offense and a very ordinary pitcher are a –1.70 chalk? Are you kidding? First, the Giants have dropped six of seven and over that stretch they’ve scored 16 times. Throw out a game against the A’s in which they scored seven times and the Giants would have nine runs in six games. Over its last five games the Giants are batting .192 with an OBP of .250. Zito got off to a great start but he was lucky with an unsustainable high strand rate. In his last three starts he’s allowed 12 earned runs in 18.1 IP and the opposition was San Diego, Houston and Oakland. There might not be a worse hitting group than that aforementioned trio. Zito’s fastball tops off at 85MPH and his other three pitches are just as ordinary. This guy has zero appeal laying ridiculous juice. Craig Stammen isn’t much better but he’s not laying –1.70 and the Nats offense puts the Giants offense to shame. The Nats torched Tim Linecum yesterday and that feat alone instills more confidence. The Nats remain the most undervalued team in the league and win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it by a wide, wide margin. Big overlay. Play: Washington +1.60 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>Houston +1.22 over MILWAUKEE<o
></o>Note the 1:10 PM EST start. With all due respect to the Astros, the Brewers might be the most pathetic team in the league. At least the Astros have some pitching and just like they do every year, they’ll very likely go on a sizzling run for about six weeks before fading away again. Anyway, if pitching has anything to do with the outcome of this game than the Astros have a huge edge in both the starting pitchers and the bullpen. Dave Bush (-23 BPV, 3-3-2-2-0 PQS) has walked 24 batters and struck out 24. That’s a problem. Bush has a WHIP of 1.76 and that, too, is a problem. He’s made nine starts this season and the Brewers are 1-8 in those starts. Bush had an ERA last year of 6.38. In two minor league starts last season his ERA was 9.95. This season his ERA at home is 6.75 and his BAA is .341 and his ERA in May is 7.27 with a BAA of .347. There’s nothing mysterious about Bush. He’s a horrible pitcher on a horrible team and while the Astros don’t have much appeal, the Brewers have way less with Bush on the hill laying a price. Brett Myers has great stuff and he’s looking better with each outing. He’s 2-1 over his last three starts with a 2.57 ERA and that includes a seven-inning, zero earned runs gem over the Rays. Incidentally, Myers is 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his career against the Brewers. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>Los Angeles +1.22 over CHICAGO<o
></o>Note the 2:20 PM EST start. John Ely (132 BPV, 4-5-5-5-3 PQS) threw his first non-PQS-Dominant game of his career but still won the game against the Tigers, recording three Ks and one walk. That walk was out of character, as Ely went three straight games without issuing a walk and he now has just four walks in 31.2 IP. Ely has struck out 28 batters and has not allowed a single jack all year. In addition, the Cubbies have never seen this guy and that works in the Dodgers favor. The kid can pitch and should be extra amped up today pitching at historic Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly (40 BPV, 2-3-4-3-3 PQS) has lost his propensity for Ks in May with just 11 in 26.2 IP. While other metrics such as control and HR’s per 9 innings are on a decent pace, the loss of Ks is concerning and suggests the arthroscopic shoulder surgery recovery may be a work in progress. The Cubbies have won just two of Lilly’s six starts. So, what we get here is a pitcher that throws nothing but strikes and has great stuff with a tag facing about as ordinary a squad as there is. Play: Los Angeles +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...<o></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.<o
></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.<o
></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.<o
></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.<o
></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park. <o
></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.<o
></o><!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>[FONT="]Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.[/FONT]<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]-->
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
